How to prioritize climate change adaptation measures? Yeora Chae - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

How to prioritize climate change adaptation measures? Yeora Chae

Contents Introduction Climate change adaptation Prioritizing adaptation options Identifying evaluation criteria Further steps 2

Ⅰ. Introduction 1. Research needs Even if stringent global GHG emissions reductions prove to be • successful, further climate change seems to be inevitable (IPCC 2007) • Climate change impacts will be unevenly distributed and put additional pressure on social-ecological functions and structures. • Policy makers at national and local levels have begun to initiated dedicated adaptation practices to counter adverse impacts. • Formal planning for climate change adaptation is emerging rapidly • To maximize the benefit of adaptation, prioritizing adaptation options are essential 3

2. R Resear arch t ch tasks ks • To investigate adaptation measures and plan • To categorizes adaptation options • To analyze methodologies for evaluating adaptation options • Multi-criteria analysis, cost-benefit analysis, etc. • To develop a methodology for prioritizing adaptation options 4

Ⅱ. Climate change adaptation 1. Objective of adaptation: What is successful adaptation? • To maintain climate-related risks at present level • To reduce risks from present level if current risks are unacceptable • To minimize exposure of most vulnerable population • cost effectiveness • equity: distribution of benefit • sustainability 5

2. Classification adaptation strategies 6

3. The percentage of adaptation strategies Benjamin L. Preston(2011) The ‘percentage of plans incorporating the specified strategy’ represents the proportion of the 57 adaptation plans that had at least one adaptation option consistent with a given adaptation strategy (UKCIP 2008). 7

4. The Current Situation of Korea adaptation strategies (group) 140 120 100 80 새로운 기회 활용 Exploiting new opportunities 위험방지 및 감소 Avoiding or reducing the risks 60 위험 공유 및 유포 Sharing or spreading the risks 철수 이주관리 Bearing the risks 40 Creating a supportive institutional 지원사회 구조 수립 framework 정책 전략 개발 Creating supportive social structures 20 정보 수집 및 교육 Gathering and sharing information 0 Public Relations, Education, and International Cooperation 8

5. The Current Situation of Korea adaptation strategies (type) Exploiting new opportunities 새로운 기회 활용 Avoiding or reducing the risks 위험방지 및 감소 Sharing or spreading the risks 위험 공유 및 유포 Bearing the risks 철수 이주관리 Creating a supportive 지원사회 구조 수립 institutional framework Creating supportive 정책 전략 개발 social structures Gathering and sharing 정보 수집 및 교육 information 9

Ⅲ. Prioritizing adaptation options 1. T The pr he proc oces ess of of eval evalua uation i n in n adap adaptation 1) Identification of core stages in adaptation planning from the decision science and development evaluation literature 2) Identification of critical planning processes associated with each planning stage that can be used as evaluation criteria 3) Selection of adaptation plans for evaluation 4) Scoring of plans against evaluation criteria 5) Categorization of adaptation options embodied within plans Benjamin L. Preston et al.(2011) 10

2. T The pr he proc oces ess of of eval evalua uation i n in n adap adaptation n (Ha Han, 200 2007) 1) Organizing stakeholder group 2) Listening stakeholder’s opinion in pre-assessment 3) Building adaptation assessment framework through legal, social, political process 4) Vulnerability assessment 5) Identification of priority option through stakeholder’s agreement 6) Public hearing 11

3. T The f he feat eatur ure e of of eval evalua uation n in n ada adaptation 1) Benefits of adaptation occurs far future and uncertain. 2) Hard to measure benefits of adaptation 3) Benefits of adaptation may be realized by combination of options: hard to measure each option’s individual benefit 4) Climate change impacts would differ depending on physical, economic, social condition: regional, sectoral analysis required. 12

4. T The cr he criter erion of on of eval evalua uation n in n adap adaptation Climate change impacts & • risk physical, economic, social • condition feature of adaptation options • Cos-benefit analysis • main-streaming • Environmental aspect • • legal aspect Policy aspect • Sergio Margulis et al.(2008) 13

5. R Rel eleva evant nt cr criter eria f a for or adap adaptation n as assessment nt 14

6. Su Summary y of Asse sessm ssment m methods Lead Authors(1998) Adaptation to Climate Change: Theory and Assessment” 21p. 15

7. R Rol ole of of adap adaptation eval n evalua uation n 1) Ensuring reduction in societal and ecological vulnerability: One of the key aims of climate adaptation is to reduce the vulnerability of human and natural systems to the effects of climate variability and change. ( or, in other words, the avoidance of ‘dangerous’ climate change) 2) Learning and adaptive management: Climate adaptation is fundamentally a process of social learning. 3) Need for accountability in an evidence-based policy environment: From a governance perspective, investments in adaptation and the outcomes they achieve must be transparent. 16

8. Pr Progress ss on on Adap daptation n Fréedéeric Gagnon- Lebrun and Shardul Agrawala(2006), "Progress on Adaptation to Climate Change in Deveoped Countries", OECD 17

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10 10. M Multi-cr criteria A a Anal nalysis f for or Adap daptation n Opt ption ICAS(2011). “International Symposium Promoting Synergies Among Adaptation Networks in the Asia-Pacific Region”. 19

. Selection criteria for adaptation options • 11 11. (Klein et al. 1997) # of countries, or population affected by climate change • impacts probability of climate change risk • • Irreversible higher cost impacts • Tendency on mal-adaptation • Long-term projects like infrastructure - Urgency - No-regret characteristics of options - Co-benefits of other sectors and domains - Mitigation effect 20

Ⅳ. Identifying evaluation criteria 1. Selection of evaluation criteria  Previous studies  Recommendation from other institutions, organizations  Expert survey 21

 Experts: adaptation scientist ( ), Policy analysits ( ), policy makers ( )  Evaluation criteria, concepts, assessment methodology, etc.  Selection among criteria 22

2. Evaluation criteria eria Eval alua uation on criter conc oncept ept 대분류 지표 hange risks Climat ate e change Clima imate change hange risks sks (Proba obabi bility) pacts hange Climat ate e change hange impac # of of peopl people, e, ar area ea affected by by cli lima mate change Climate change risk iming ur Timi Timi iming of of cli lima mate change hange imp impacts oc occur hange st ($) Int nten ensity of of climat ate change # of of mo mortali lity, mo morbid idit ity, dam damage age cost quity oup Equi Cons onsider derat ation on of of vul ulner nerabl able gr group cy on Democr cracy Cons onsens nsus on on stak akehol older ers’ opi opini nion icy Polic - Identification of of way ays in in adapt ptat ation on can an be be ins nstitut ution onalized ed or or ng main ma in-stream eaming ans embedded em bedded into existing or or new new polic icies and and pl plans ency benefits Econ onom omic ef efficien Cost, effe ffect ctive veness, ss, benef benefits ness Co-benef Co Expl ploi oitat ation on of of syne nergies es Effec ectivenes ect Com ommuni unicat ation on and and out outrea each Propaga opagating ng ef effec 23

2. Evaluation criteria eria Eval alua uation on criter Anal nalysis met ethodol hodolog ogy 대분류 지표 ge risks Climat ate c change Quanti tita tati tive analy lysis is: pacts Climate c e chang ange impac Vuln lnerabilit ility analy lysis is Climate change risk Clima mate te chang ange impac pact asse sessm ssment Timing Ti ange Intens ensity o of climat ate c chang ity Equit acy Democ ocrac Qualit litativ ive analy lysis is: licy Polic Multi criteria analysis, AHP , BAP ng main in-stream aming ency is Econom onomic e efficien Quanti tita tati tive analy lysis is: co cost st benef enefit analy lysis ss nefits Co Co-be bene Quanti tita tati tive analy lysis is Effect ctive veness ect Qualit litativ ive analy lysis is Propa opaga gating ng e effec 24

6. Prioritizat zation of on of climat ate change nge adapt adaptation m meas easures ures Asses essment of of adap adaptatio ion m mea easure res Climate change Effectiveness Policy risks • Economic • Equity • Timing efficiency • Democracy • Risks (probability) • Co-benefits • main streaming • Intensity (win-win measures) • Propagation effects Quantitative Qualitative assessment assessment 25

7. Asse ssessm sment st steps ∙ No regret :measures with no cost ∙ Existing measures 1 st Step ∙ Non-reversible impacts (Screening) Climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment 2 nd Step Multi-criteria analysis 3 rd Step Effectiveness Policy 26