XXVIII IUSSP International Population Conference Paper ‘Childlessness’ in Colombia: Exploring the trends, associated factors, and intentionality of non-parenthood since the 1980s Cristina Pérez Department of Anthropology, University College London (UK) ABSTRACT Between 1965 and 2015, Colombia ’s total fertility rate ( TFR) declined by 5 children per woman, reaching the below-replacement level of 2.0. Colombian women now outperform men at every level of education, and between 1985 and 2005, female labour-force participation rose faster than in any other country in the region. Against a backdrop of profound sociodemographic change, this paper presents findings from the initial quantitative analysis of a two-part mixed methods study that aims to improve our understanding of childlessness beyond infertility within Latin America. Using data from a series of Colombian Demographic and Health Surveys and censuses, this paper explores the trends in Colombian childlessness from the 1980s to the present and asks who is most likely to be childless, how this changes across the life course, and whether this is ‘voluntary’ or not . Using descriptive statistics and generalised linear modelling, it explores the factors associated with female childlessness (as compared to motherhood) around ages 30 and 40. Partnership status (never married), higher education, and higher socioeconomic status were strongly and positively associated with female childlessness, and ‘ voluntary ’ forms of childlessness, in particular, have increased steadily over the past 30 years. INTRODUCTION & BACKGROUND In a pattern not uncommon for Latin America, between 1965 and 2010, Colombia experienced a ‘spectacular’ fertility decline, as the total fertility rate (TFR) fell from 7 children per woman to 2.1 (Ojeda, Ordonez and Ochoa, 2011). As of 2010, approximately half (49.1%) of the Colombian population resided in regions with at or below-replacement level fertility, and the most recent Demographic and Health Survey estimated that the national TFR in 2015 was 2.0. The country is now in an advanced stage of the ‘First’ Demographic Transition (FDT), and questions around whether or not Colombia has started to 1
Cristina Pérez 30 Sept. 2017 IUSSP PAPER: ‘Childlessness’ in Colombia exhibit features of the so-called ‘Second’ Demographic Transition (SDT) have begun to emerge (Florez and Sanchez, 2013). The SDT in Europe is broadly characterised by: sub-replacement fertility related to postponement of childbearing and increasing childlessness; rising ages at marriage because of increased female choice and autonomy; and rising premarital cohabitation (Lesthaeghe, 2010) . Many SDT theorists attribute these changes to ‘modern’ forms of social organisation and ‘post - materialist values’, as women (and men) prioritise their own self-fulfilment in a context of increasing urbanisation, education and gender equality (Arriagada, 2002). There is some evidence that this is the case in Colombia: women now outperform men at every level of education, and between 1985 and 2005 their labour force participation rose faster than in any other country in the region (Amador, Bernal and Pena, 2013). The same period saw sharp moves away from marriage and towards ‘consensual unions’ (Esteve, Lesthaeghe and López- Gay, 2012), alongside some evidence of delayed childbearing (Rosero-Bixby, Castro Martin and Martin-Garcia, 2009). However, most Colombian women will have had their first child by the time they reach their mid-twenties, and little is known about the levels, patterns, and factors associated with childlessness in Colombia. Figures from the 2005 census indicate that more than 10% of Colombian women aged 45-49 were childless, which, although low compared to most European countries, is in line with estimates from Brazil (Cavenaghi, 2013). Cavenaghi and Alves (2013), who examined childlessness in a Brazilian context, note that low fertility is unevenly spread across that country according to stratifying factors such as education, socioeconomic status, and region/area of residence. This stratification owes to the large-scale socioeconomic inequalities that characterise Brazilian society, in common with most other Latin American countries including Colombia. Although some sectors of Latin American society may have only recently experienced the changes associated with the FDT, other subgroups may be well on their way to exhibiting features of the SDT. Recent Fertility Trends in Colombia As of 2015, almost two-thirds (65.4%) of the Colombian population resided in regions with at or below-replacement level fertility, an increase from just 16.7% in 2005. When looking only at below-replacement level TFRs (less than 2.1), the proportions in 2015, 2010 and 2005 were 58.1%, 44.5% , and 15.3% of the country’s population, respectively. This change can be seen clearly in Figure 1 and in (Appendix) Table A1. 2
Cristina Pérez 30 Sept. 2017 IUSSP PAPER: ‘Childlessness’ in Colombia Figure 1: Maps of Colombian Total Fertility Rate (TFR), by Department from 2005-2015. 2015 2010 2005 Source: Author’s own elabo ration using DHS data. Figure 1 also illustrates the relatively wide regional variation, as (increasingly few) departments have TFRs above 2.5. In the 2015 DHS the highest departmental TFR (of 4.6) was registered in Vaupés, a sparsely-populated department in the south-eastern Amazonian region, or ‘National Territories’ border ing Brazil, which accounted for less than 1% of the national population. The department with the lowest overall TFR (of 1.3) was Caldas, in the ‘Central’ Andean region, which borders the larger department of Antioquia (with a TFR of 1.4) , which is home to Medellin, Colombia’s second city after Bogota. Historically, t he Atlantic coast, Eastern region and National Territories (Amazonia/Orinoquia) tend towards higher T FRs, while the ‘Central’ Andean region and Bogota typically have lower fertility. Table 1: Trends in TFR by Colombian Region, DHS 1986-2015 Region 1986 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Atlantic 4.3 3.6 3.2 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 Eastern 3.5 2.8 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.0 Central 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.6 Pacific 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.3 2 1.9 Bogotá 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.8 National Territories* -- -- -- -- 2.3 2.5 2.2 Total 3.2 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.0 *The first four DHS rounds, 1986-2000, excluded the National Territories, consisting mainly of the Amazonian region, on the basis of being sparsely populated and accounting for around/less than 2.5% of the total Colombian population. 3
Cristina Pérez 30 Sept. 2017 IUSSP PAPER: ‘Childlessness’ in Colombia As Table 1 and Figure 2 both illustrate, there has been a steady downward trend over time in both national and regional TFRs, with below-replacement levels emerging in these larger regions from 2010 onward. By 2015, four of the six regions had below-replacement level fertility, excluding only the Atlantic coast and National Territories. Figure 2: Regional Trends in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), DHS 1986-2015 4.6 Atlantic 4.1 Eastern 3.6 Central 3.1 TFR Pacific 2.6 Bogotá 2.1 National Territories 1.6 National TFR 1.1 1986 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Against this backdrop of pronounced social and demographic changes, this paper will present the initial, quantitative findings from a multi-stage mixed methods research project focusing on childlessness in Colombia. It will ask: 1. How has the overall level of childlessness amongst Colombian women changed since the mid-1980s, with a particular focus on women around ages 30 (25-34 year olds, to explore delayed entrance into motherhood) and 40 (35-44 year olds, representing childlessness close to the end of the reproductive life)? 2. What factors are associated with childlessness in Colombia around ages 30 and 40? To what extent can ‘voluntary’ childlessness be distinguis hed from other forms using 3. DHS data? H ow has ‘voluntary’ childlessness changed since the 1980s? DATA & METHODS Data Sources The quantitative analysis presented here is based on a series of seven Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for Colombia, from 1986, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015, as 4
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