Payroll Job Growth United States | Month-to-Month 14.5 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Payroll Job Growth United States | Month-to-Month 14.5 MILLION JOBS ADDED SINCE THE RECESSION 600 14.5 MILLION JOBS ADDED SINCE THE RECESSION N E T J O B C H A N G E ( T H O U S A N D S ) N E T J O B C H A N G E ( T H O U S A N D S ) 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 -200 -200 75 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF POSITIVE JOB GROWTH -400 75 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF POSITIVE JOB GROWTH -400 -600 -600 -800 -800 -1,000 -1,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 N o t e: D a t a a r e s ea s o n a l l y a d j u s t ed 5 So u r c e: BLS, D el t a A s s o c i a t es ; F eb r u a r y 2 0 1 6

15% C H A N G E I N M E D I A N P R I C E , 10% S I N G L E - FA M I LY H O M E S 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

7% Effective Federal Funds Rate 10-Year Treasury 6% 30-Year Treasury 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%

Effective Federal Funds Rate 3.5% 10-Year Treasury 3.03% 2.98% 30-Year Treasury 3.0% 2.45% 2.5% 2.15% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% December 14, Dec 14, 2016 2016 Dec December 16, 16, 201 2015 0.54 .54% 0.24% 0.5% 0.0% 2015 2016 2017

3.1% 2.0% 2.6% 5% Average 20 2007 07 – 2009 2009 Average 20 2010 10 – 2015 2015 Average 20 2016 16 1 2 - M O N T H C H A N G E 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

F O R E C A S T 2.1% 2.2% 6% Pos ost-Recess ssion Average 2017 20 17 Average 4% 2% A N N U A L C H A N G E 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17

N E W J O B S ( T H O U S A N D S ) 100 120 140 20 40 60 80 0 LA Basin NY DFW SF Bay Atl 67K Was South FL Denver Bos Chi Phx Hou

Profe fess ssional/Business ss Servic ices 23,900 Education/Healt lth Leisure/Hospitali lity Federal Government Retail T l Trade State and Local Government 71,300 Other Servic ices Wholesale Trade Const struction/Min ining Manufa facturing Transp sportatio ion/Utilit itie ies Financial Activit itie ies - 4,700 Info formation -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 J O B C H A N G E

6% Natio Na ional l Ra Rate November 2015 November 2016 4.8% 5% 4.5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Bos Den DFW Bay Was Phx NY Basin Atl S Fla Hou Chi SF LA Basis Point -170 170 -20 20 -50 50 -40 40 -50 50 -80 80 -90 -10 10 +10 +10 -40 40 -10 10 -10 10 Change 13

F O R E C A S T 140 120 N E W J O B S ( T H O U S A N D S ) 100 48,600 80 43,400 4-Year Average 20 20-Year Average 60 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -20 -40 -60 District Suburban MD Northern VA

RE REAL AL ESTATE STOCKS T-BILLS 14% 14% T O TA L A N N U A L A V E R A G E R E T U R N NCRE REIF Property Ind ndex S&P 500 S& 500 (90 da (90 day) 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% 20 0 Ye Years 10 0 Ye Years 1 Y Year

Washington 14% 14% US US 12% 12% T O TA L A N N U A L R E T U R N 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% Retail Indust strial Apartment Offic ice

Office Multifamily Retail Flex/Industrial $30 $25 (BILLIONS) $20 TOTAL VOLUME (B $15 $10 $5 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

9% 9% 8% 8% 5.8% 6.3% 5.6% 5.4% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% Flex/ Grocery- Apartments Office Industrial Anchored 4% 4%

50% S H A R E O F R E S P O N D E N T S 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Very Negative Somewhat Neutral Somewhat Positive Very Positive Unclear/Don't Negative Know

Stim St imulu lus + Hig igher Defic icit its High igher In Interest Hig igher Rates Infl In flatio ion

In Infrastr tructure: $1T $1T over er 10 10 year ears? Wall ll: $15B $15B? $40 $40B $28 $285B? Imm Immig igration

Por orts ts of of En Entry ry Ex Export-intensiv ive Metr tro Area eas War arehouse/Distrib ibution

WASHINGTON FINANCIAL LOW INCOME METRO AREA INSTITUTIONS HOUSING Federal hiring freeze TAX CREDITS Eased regulations Defense spending Lower tax rates vs. Home mortgage Other spending underwriting ↓ Fannie Mae, Fewer affordable Federal agencies moved Freddie Mac? out of region? units

2010 2020 10.7% 7.7% 6.7% 10.0% TOTAL FEDERAL TOTAL FEDERAL 39.8% 27.2% 12.8% 72.8% 60.2% NON-FEDERAL NON-FEDERA L 19.1% FEDERAL WAGES & SALARIES PROCUREMENT OTHER FEDERAL

45% 38% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 11% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016

54 53 S Q UA R E F E E T ( M I L L I O N S ) 52 51 50 49 48 47 47 46 45 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Aviation D Overall grade: Bridges C+ Dams D Drinking Water D Energy D+ Hazardous Waste D Inland Waterways D- Levees D- Public Parks and Recreation C- Rail C+ Roads D Schools D Solid Waste B- Transit D Wastewater D Ports C

Health Care Educational Transportation Power Plants, Lines Highways and Streets 30 28.4 28 27.2 26 24.4 Y E A RS 24 23.3 22 20.1 20 18 16 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

2.5% 2.0% S H A R E O F G D P 1.5% 1.0% 0.50% 0.5% 0.0% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

$2.0 Total Funding Required: $3.6 trillion Total Funding Gap: $1.6 trillion $1.72 Identified Funding Funding Gap $1.5 2 0 1 0 T R I L L I O N S $1.0 $0.79 $0.74 $0.5 $0.39 $0.0 Surface Transportation Electricity Schools Other

Surface Transportation Electricity Inland Waterways & Marine Ports Water/Wastewater Airports

Public Transportation Storm Water Drinking & Waste Water Public Buildings Roads Electric Bridges Gas

800,000 750,000 700,000 650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Washington Metro New York Chicago San Francisco 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Office Development Under Construction Within ½ Mile 60 54.3 of a Metro Station: S Q UA R E F E E T ( M I L L I O N S ) 93% of Total in Region 50 40 31.2 30 19.7 20 10 0 District Northern Virginia Suburban Maryland

$2.5 $2.3 $2.0 28% of Total Area Tax Base B I L L I O N S $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.4 $0.5 $0.0 DC Virginia Maryland Within 1/4 Mile Within 1/2 Mile Distance from Metrorail station:

FY18 BUDGET GAP FTA Grants $60M Management/Labor $50M Riders $50M District of Columbia $47M Maryland $44M Virginia $39M TOTAL $290M Compared to FY 2017: $2.8B (+11%) State & Local Funds Fares & Parking Federal Debt Other

MetroForward Federal Transit $5 billion over Administration 2014-2020 for Safety oversight safety and reliability (October 2015) improvements Back2Good SafeTrack Safety Intensive program to improve safety and reliability Reliability Financial management 3 years of work in 12 months (completion June 2017) Customer experience

Funding Needed Proposals  $1 billion for regular life  Overhaul the governance cycle maintenance and structure  Fix the funding problem replacement  $600 million per year for  Improve the Board’s capacity improvements capabilities  Annual operating deficits  Put the Federal Government in charge

14.1% 18% 9.8% 16% O V E R A L L VA C A N C Y R AT E National Ra Rate 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% SF Bay Phil NY Bos LA Basin Was DFW Hou Atl Chi

20 C O N S T R U C T I O N ( M I L L I O N S O F S F ) 18 11.3 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 NY SF Bay Was DFW LA Basin Phil Bos Chi Hou Atl

30% 25% C H A N G E I N S F L E A S E D 20% U P O N R E L O C AT I O N 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 2001 to 2009 2010 to 2016

18% 14.1% 16% O V E R A L L V A C A N C Y R AT E 14% 12% 14.8% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

20% F O R E C A S T Change in Asking Rent Overall Vacancy Rate 15% Natural Vacancy Rate 10% 5% 0% -5%

Tar arget su submarkets: sel select su submarkets will ill turn to to landlo lord. Tenants to to target: whic ich industries s ar are e lea easing spa space? Older pr Old product: consid ider ren enovation or or con onversion. The ame amenities gam ame: what te tenants want.

12% 7.6% 10% 5.3% 5.3% O V E R A L L V A C A N C Y R AT E National Ra Rate 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% LA Basin Det SF Bay NY Phi Hou Chi DFW Was/Bal Atl Bos

10 6.3 N E T A B S O R P T I O N ( M I L L I O N S O F S F ) 8 6 3.6 MSF Lon Long-Term Average 4 2 0 -2 -4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Retail Services Agri/Mining/Utilities Manufacturing Business Services Transportation Other Sectors