Modelling of UK Offshore Wind Farms for Cost- Insert image (Send - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Modelling of UK Offshore Wind Farms for Cost- Insert image (Send backwards un4l image appears effective Decarbonisation behind 4tle. Do not cover the footer banner.) Dr. Amal Mansor Science & Innovation for Climate & Energy (SICE) 4 May 2019

Why we model? 2

Support for Low Carbon Technologies Low carbon technology innova2on funding • Renewables • Built environment Affordability • Smart energy systems • Industry & CCS • Energy Entrepreneurs Fund Energy Carbon Low-carbon electricity genera2on support Security Reduc4on Renewables Obliga4on (RO) • Feed in Tariffs (FiT) • Contracts for Difference (CfD) • 3

Levy Control Framework (LCF) LCF was introduced in 2011 to regulate the costs of suppor4ng low carbon electricity paid for through • consumers’ energy bills Aim to achieve 30% renewable electricity by 2020 • Renewable Obligations (RO) • Obligation on suppliers to buy a proportion of their electricity from renewable sources. • BEIS publishes the Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) Contracts for Difference (CfD) • Mechanism by which the government buys power from renewable technologies at a guaranteed strike price. • BEIS sets the Admin Strike Price. If wholesale price is below Admin Strike Price, the price difference is passed onto consumer bills. Feed-in Tariffs (FiT) • Payments to ordinary energy users for the renewable electricity they generate 4

LCF Governance Process LCF Assump4on Review Group LCF Working Group Electricity Evidence Board Levy Control Board Electricity Policy Board (HMT and BEIS) Finance & Secretary of Execu4ve Business State and CommiSee CommiSee Ministers 5

LCF Budget Caps Key Drivers of Spend Projec2ons: LCF Budget and Expenditure 1. Deployment 9000 - Commissioning dates 8000 - Capacity £m (2011/12 prices) 7000 6000 2. Load factors 5000 - The ra4o of the amount of electricity produced to 4000 its total poten4al, based on nameplate capacity, 3000 over one year 2000 1000 3. Wholesale Price 0 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 4. Policy changes Year Budget Actual/projected expenditure 6

Cost Control Measures • Closure of FiTs • Closure of RO scheme - Removal of grandfathering for biomass projects - Early closure of small scale solar PV - Early closure of onshore wind • Removal of solar PV on CfD scheme 7

Why we model? Offshore Offshore wind is wind is £££ = Windiness x Load Factor 25% of CfD 36% of RO budget budget 8

What we model? 9

Previously in BEIS … • Load factors were based on average wind speed and historic data Power Curve • But, wind energy depends on swept area of the turbine and wind speed: P = ​ 1 / 2 ​𝐷↓𝑞 𝜍𝐵​𝑤↑ 3 • Power curve – relationship between wind speed and power output of a turbine: § Cut-in speed § Rated output speed § Cut-out speed 10

Power Curve - Existing Farms Enappsys Met Office POWER Metered Virtual Met CURVE Volume Mast (VMM) Site specific hourly Half hourly settlement VMM wind speed generation data data • The power generation data is obtained commercially from Enappsys and is based on metered volume of power generation connected to the National Grid Year 3 • The wind speed data is provided by the Met Office Virtual Met Mast (VMM) which is a site-specific hub Year 2 Power height wind speed modelled data which has been Year 1 extensively verified and compared against historical data. • For each year of operation, a power curve is plotted by time matching the power generation to VMM wind speed for that year so that the relative magnitude of power generation to wind speed for each farm is known Wind speed 11 11

Power Curve – Existing Farms Barrow Offshore Wind Farm Greater Gabbard Offshore Wind Farm 12 12

Power Curve - New Build Renewable Engineering POWER Energy Planning Functional CURVE Database Model • Capacity • Turbine size • Hub Height Power = ​ 1 / 2 ​𝐷↓𝑞 𝜍𝐵​𝑤↑ 3 Power Wind speed 13 13

Long-term Offshore Wind Farm Load Factor MET office Wind speed + n-years of wind speed data Year 3 (since 1985) to give a wind Year 2 Year 1 speed probability distribution Power for a specific location Time Present 1985 Wind speed Probability distribu4on Year 3 Long-term Load Year 2 Factor (LLF): Year 1 Load factor for an average year based on long-term wind speed distribution Power 14 14

Outages Consideration • Existing farm - Outages calculated from the proportion of power below 0 between cut-in and cut-out speeds relative to total power • New build - Average outages from existing farms or - Differences between load factor from generation data and load factor from modelled power curve 15

Data Flow - Summary PROCESS DATA SOURCE INPUT OUTPUT n-years WPD Met Office VMM f-year combine LLF VMM Power Enappsys HH Curve outliers removed LLF_out Outages SLF validation Monthly Ofgem OLF generation HH – Half-hourly generation LLF – long-term load factor VMM – Virtual Met Mast wind speed LLF_out – long-term load factor corrected for outages n-years – all available VMM data (since 1985) SLF – specific load factor f-year – financial year OLF – load factor from Ofgem data WPD – Wind speed probability distribution 16 16

Summary • Load factors are important in Levy Control Framework spend forecast • The model uses over 30 years of wind speed data to generate a site-specific power curve and takes into account technological learning to es4mate load factor • The model is currently being extended into baSery storage • Future work: develop models for other technologies. Solar PV model is currently in development 17

Ques2ons? noramalina.mansor@beis.gov.uk 18