Military Operational Research (14 ISMOR) - PDF document

Military Operational Research (14 ISMOR) zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA The Fourteenth International Symposium On "Application of Parallel Thinking Process to 'Soft' Operational Analysis" Mr. Hemant P. Jariwala, Operational Analysis Department, Matra BAe Dynamics (UK) Ltd., Stevenage, Hertfordshire. SGI 2DA. England Tel.: +44 (0) 1438 754204 Fax.: +44 (0) 1438 754296 141SMORIHPJIOl zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA E-mail: hemant.jariwala@def. bae.co.u k Matra BAe Dynamics I Abstract "Western thinking is failing because it was not designed to deal with the increasing complexity zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA change." Dr. Edward de Bono, Parallel Thinking Traditional military Operational Analysis (OA) has been used by Industry, Customer and User, as a process for decision making. Indeed,Jmore often than not, it is used to confirm or support preconceived ideas through judgement but with very little thought on design of new ideas or exploring possibilities. e.g. low intensity conflict analysis (Operations Other Than War). zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA If 'Soft' OA is to survive, it must progress to cope with the demands of o f a rapidly changing world. Traditional analytical techniques must evolve or be modified, and different ways of solving problems embraced. Otherwise, OKs value to Industry and Customer alike will be eroded. The objective of this paper is to raise awareness and propose the use of Dr. de Bono's 'Parallel Thinking' ideas in the field of 'Soft' OA. An example is presented, where this methodology would be beneficial, Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not, necessarily, reflect the views of Matra BAe Dynamics (UK) Limited. Matra BAe Dynamics - 14ISMOR/HPJ/OZ

..- zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Traditional Thinking zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA . What is 'Traditional Thinking'? i s Concerned with Search and Discovery - -Criticism: remove 'bad things' only 'good things' are zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Westem thinking system fashioned by the Ancient Greek Philosophers: Socrates, Plato and Aristotle. - Judgmental: yedno, righffwrong, truelfalse, etc. -'Static' logic and absolute fact. - Uses hard-edged judgement boxes, definitions and categories. -Sets up dichotomies and contradictions to force choice. -Information and judgement are enough. left. -Adversarial argument. 14ISMOPJHPJx)3 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Basic concept o f judgement has totally dominated Western thinking, during the past two thousand five hundred years. Matra B A e Dynamics Traditional Thinking Process ( Perception ) puts matter into a box. Action is then determined by the box. Judgement zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA ACTION In traditional thinking there is perception followed by a judgement which or analysis i s the key thinking step Matra BAe Dvnamics

What is zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA . zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 'I i 'Parallel Thinking'? Parallel Thinking is Concerned with Design and Creation - Accepts 'possibilities'. -- 'Dynamic Logic' and 'Fluid Thinking'. - Analysis will only tell us 'What is'. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Uses 'fuzzy edges', overlaps, markers and spectra: 'usually', 'by and large' and 'sometimes', etc. - Embraces contradiction and design a way forward. - Deliberate generation and construction of ideas and concepts. - Uses co-operative 'parallel' thinking. Parallel thinking is 'possibilities' orientated. We move from possibilities to the direct design of action. To deal with the future, we have to deal with possibilities. Matra BAe Dynamics 14lSMOWPJ/05 II) - \ Parallel Pe rce pt i o n Stru ct u red Scenarios Judgement - Flowscape Approach - Structured Brainstorming - Lateral Thinking ACTION In parallel thinking a useful outcome is obtained by 'design' rather than by 'judgement'. From the field of parallel 'possibilities' we then proceed to design the most appropriate action, decision or a way forward. Matra BAe Dynamics 141SMORIHPJI06 I

Parallel zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA . . zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Growp zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I 4 1. Thinking Method or Co-operative Involvement Explore Group Flowscape: 'Inner World' of Perception 'Six Hats' or Structured Brainstorming Method: - - Designated hat focuses the group towards the subject. - Different opinions considered equally. - Parallel direction for examining the subject. Lateral Thinking - Generation of new ideas. - Uses: insight, creativity and humour. - Deliberate way of restructuring information. Parallel thinking means laying down ideas alongside each other. There is 141SMORRIPJI07 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA no clash, no dispute, no initial true/faIse judgement. There is instead a genuine exploration of the subject. Matra BAe Dynamics I Flowscape Methodology (I) Flowscapes are personal reflection of subject perception - Logic of perception. - Picture of the Inner-world ... -"what might be...", "What does this lead to ?I Flowscape Approach - Define Scope of the Subject. -Aspects of the situation - values, concepts and circumstances. Matra BAe Dynamics zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA -'Top of the head' list of factors. - Link or 'flows' to other item. 'What comes to mind next or leads to?' - Pictorial representation of flowscape. 141SMOWHPJIO9

, zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Flowscape Methodology (2) parallel possibilities. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Group Flowscape - Understanding the 'Logic of Perception' and the process. -Objective of the exercise. -Construct 'base list'. - Flowscape picture. -Analysis of tlowscape: Identify I41SMORIHPJllO zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA - Matra BAe Dynamicr Flowscape Methodology (3) Pictorial representation zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA important points are understood and focus zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Collector (C) -Possible action points. W Stable Loop (S) -Stability of perception. -At least one stable loop Link (L) -Point of weakness o f our perception analysed. Sensitive and our attention and decide on course of action. Matra BAe Dynamics - I41SMORMPJIll

Ethnic Conflict Base List Violence Revenge Revenge Die Hard Die Hard Traitor Hardship Future Pressures Die Hard Die hard zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Anger Revenge Despair Revenge Traitor Revenge Matra BAe Dynamics zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Die Hard Hardship Future Peace - Despair zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Ethnic Conflict Flowscape Revenge - Traitor Violence /Pressures Anger + Die Hard -Heroes -Economic hard- zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA \ / Settlement Loops ...d and the future does not feature in reduc..ig the ethnic vic -rice. -The power of being labelled as a traitor prevents conciliatory moves. Collectors -Avenge past events (impossible to forget and forgive) -feeds violence, anger and despair. - never give in. A good breeding ground for local heroes and -Community determination leaders. Any settlement or peace should not be seen as giving in. Matra BAe Dynamics

Outer-world Perception of Conflicts lllSMOfUHPJll3 king zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Concluding Remarks Has 'Soft' OA has become complacent, arrogant and judgmental? Parallel Thinking has many advantages over Traditional Thin non-standard situations zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA -Accept possibilities. - Co-operative involvement (Structured Brainstorming). - Direct creation of new ideas and concepts (Lateral Thinking). -Conflict analysis: More than just a 'Game zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA -Attention to perception (Flowscape). - Concerned with design and action. Impact on weapon system design, procurement and deployment. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Need to develop 'novel' methods to deal with new military or Back To The Future - Relationship between perception and reality. of War'. - Impact on UNINATO response to conflicts. - Matra BAe Dynamics - 141SMOWHPJH6

Dr. Edward de zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Bono zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Further Reading Material: - Parallel Thinking (ISBN 0-670-85126-4) -Six Thinking Hats (ISBN 0-14-013784-X) -Water Logic (ISBN 0-14-023075-0) - Lateral Thinking (ISBN 0-14-013779-3) Acknowledgement The author acknowledges the support and assistance recei! ed from: Dr. John R. Deane and Jenny L. Young of Matra BAe Dynamics (UK) Ltd and Peter J. Haysman of Royal Ordnance (Shrivenham). 141SMOWHPJ117 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Matra BAe Dynamics I Notes: