OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS AT THE PJHQ ONE YEAR ON Hugh Richardson zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Presented at: The 14th International Symposium on Military Operational Research This paper describes how OA is conducted at the PJHQ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Abstract 1 year after “going operational”. The “modus operandi” of the PJHQ is described and the way in which OA contributes to the planning and conduct of operations. Particular emphasis is DACOS zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA made on the use of historical analysis to support the Distributed Joint OA concept and the response levels required by the PJHQ and the Defence Crisis Management organisation. Examples of OA and historical analysis support are given and future requirements identified. 923-846304 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Hugh Richardson 58 (OA) PJHQ NCC Room 2002 Northwood Middlesex HA6 3TJ 01 Controller, Her Majesty’s Stationery Office London 1996 0 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent official MOD policy.
I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 1 PLAN FOR THIS SESSION zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I +Distributed Joint zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA +Introduction to PJHQ OA Examples of O A & Historical Analysis - support + Summary
PRIMARY ROLE zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 0 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA a zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 2
zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I . M zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA CONCURRENCY - MODUS OPERANDI /zrs7 0 N I T 0 R U El OPERATIONAL zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA PICTURE zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 7 CONCURRENCY = MODUS OPERANDI N zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA /t77 M 0 I T 0 R 3
CONCURRENCY zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA = MODUS OPERANDI 0 IJ21 I - - THE "ESTIMATE" LIAISON: FLEET/LAN D/STC ALLIED Has MINISTERIAL SUBMISSIONS DIRECTIVES n A ! \- IJ81 IJ21 4
= MODUS OPERANDI zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I - CONCURRENCY 0 = MODUS OPERANDI zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA El CONCURRENCY 1 , OPERATIONAL M COMMAND 0 N n zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I DEPLOY T SUSTAIN 0 RECOVER R \ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA n l i w \ I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA \ I U U 5
M zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA N zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA R zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 0 I T 0 U U ROLES OF THE JRDF EVACUATION zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA PRESENCE - W OR LD-WIDE 6
CURRENT OPS PJHQ WORLDWIDE ACTIVITY FROM AUG 96 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 8 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Other Operations I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA * I 7
OPS SINCE APR 96 Dee zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA GEORGIA zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA com<3 Comp > - 96 CYPRUS ( , i / KUWAIT OPS SINCE APR 96 (cont) Compl (+ OPCOM of Overseas Commands zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Comp 8
+ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I - .- zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I SCIENTIFIC/OA ROLE The primary purpose of the OA Cell is to coordinate, direct and provide appropriate scientific and OA advice to the PJHQ for joint, combined and multi- national operations; contingency and operational planning; Support Tier 3 exercises and wargames; and JW operational and tactical doctrine development OVERVIEW OF OA TASKS + Assessment of plans through wargaming, simulation and numerical analysis; + Operations and Post Operations analysis; + Provision of scientific support to the JFC and JFHQ operations; + Development of scenarios & warfighting concepts; + Support to JW training and doctrine development; Provision of scientific support as required to CJO. 9
J1 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA DJOA TASKING TAKES - J9: ACOS to SO2 TASKS (including OTs & CPTs) JFHQ - including J8(OA) Priorities agreed by DACOS J8(OA) with ACOS 58, and COS & CJO if necessary AUGMENTEES zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA DJOA RESOURCING J8(OA) CORE CELL (3) (3+3) CONTRACTORS zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA WARFARE CENTRES (AWC, MWC, HQLC) CDA DERA MOD (including HBs) _________________________________ 10
DJOA TASKING zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA - EXAMPLE QUESTION AREAS (2) zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA DJOA TASKING = +FORCE DEPLOYMENT +MEASURES OF SUCCESS/ INDICATORS +EXCLUSION ZONE ASSESSMENT +INDICATORS OF ENEMY COURSES OF ACTION (COA). 11
+ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA DJOA QUESTIONS zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA : URGENCY “Hot” planning + “Warm” & “Cold” planning + Research - to provide underpinning data & tools. DJOA: ANALYSIS LEVELS & RESPONSE TIMES + Level 4 - underpinning Core Programme. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA + Level 1 - fastest analysis, hours + Level 2 - fast analysis, days + Level 3 - longer timeframe, weeks 12
cn zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 3 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Response Times Required for OA Answers in EX Purple Viva 96 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 30 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA . I 70 60 L 50 b 40 + zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 3 20 S (rt 10 LEVEL 1 - FASTEST ANALYSIS Uses simplest techniques to correlate force sizes and show relative build-up of forces + Can look at the Theatre-wide build-up for the whole Coalition + . Historical Analysis provides . . . Background awareness - Joint OOTW database - Joint Ops Cost Calculator/database - Joint Ops Casualty Calculator/database - 13
- FAST ANALYSIS zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA LEVEL 2 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Historical Analysis threads + Threat/Coalition deployment & our options for opposing it + Effectiveness of air attacks on threat armour + Effectiveness of attacks on infra-structure targets e.g. bridges + Use of Op Granby Analytical Record + Use of Op Hamden Analytical Record. LEVEL 3 - RATIONALE by going to Level zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA +Initial analysis from levels 1 & 2 provides fast results to tight time-scales, but more confidence can be gained 3 analysis with a longer response time. 14
LEVEL 3 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA + zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA - EXAMPLE ANALYSIS Planning figures from Air Warfare Centre Effectiveness of air strikes - Number of a/c required for levels of effect - + Historical analysis from Air & Army Historical Branches + Use of JANUS at CDA(Land). LEVEL 4 - Underpinning Core Programme Historical Analysis component Op Purposeful (Zaire) Timeline Analysis; 4 Shock, Surprise, Heroes, Moral Component Analysis 4 by CDA(HLS); Continued development of Joint OOTW database; 4 + Continued emphasis on the need for war diaries International collaboration. 4 15
+ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA SUMMARY zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA ... zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Insights into the use made of OA by the PJHQ, +Need for rapid access databases ... +Need for underpinning Historical Analysis programme particularly in the area of 00 TW... zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Evacuations, disaster relief etc. +Need for more aD zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA z w UINT FORCE T 3 16
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