MARITIME APPLICATION OF THE ERC METHOD Valtteri Laine OpenRisk Workshop Project Manager 13 June 2017 Captain/M.Sc.
BACKGROUND • The Event Risk Classification (ERC) is a part of ARMS Methodology for Operational Risk Assessment. • It was originally developed for aviation by the ARMS Working Group from 2007 to 2010. • OpenRisk will develop consequence/probability matrices for environmental damages, loss of life or injuries and economic losses, and process for risk identification. • The expected end-users of this method are Pollution Prevention and Response authorities and VTS authorities.
SWISS CHEESE James Reason
EVENT RISK . • Risk that was present in an individual e x perienced event in a specific context. • These contextual factors will influence both the probabilities and severity levels of outcomes.
SAFETY ISSUE “ Manifestation of a hazard or combination of several hazards in a specific context” • Events that have something in common .
MARITIME APPICATION OF THE ERC Environmental Damages Loss of Life or Injuries Economical Losess Severity Very high risk High risk Risk Index Values Medium risk Likelihood Low risk
MARITIME APPICATION OF THE ERC Non-accident outcomes Accident outcomes SCENARIO • Question 1. If this event had escalated into an accident outcome, what would have been the most credible outcome?
MARITIME APPICATION OF THE ERC Non-accident outcomes Accident outcomes Question 2: What was the effectiveness of the remaining controls between this event and the most credible accident scenario?
RISK INDENTIFICATION PROCESS Data Collection • VTS Incident Reports • Marine Casualty Reports • Accident Investigation Reports • Pilotage Reports • ... Structured Database Date • Location (latitude/longitude) • Weather conditions (good/moderate/poor) • IMO number • Accident or scenario (grounding/collision/contact/fire or explosion…) • … •
MARITIME ERC FOR THE RISK OF ENVIRONMENTAL DAMGES
MARITIME ERC FOR THE LOSS OF LIFE OR INJURIES
MARITIME ERC FOR THE RISK OF ECONOMICAL LOSESS
EXAMPLE 1: Violation of Contravened Regulationss Rule 10/b ii on March 2014 Environmental Damages Loss of Life or Injuries Economical Losess
EXAMPLE 2: Violation of Contravened Regulationss Rule 10/b i on September 2014 Environmental Damages Loss of Life or Injuries Economical Losess
EXAMPLES OF OUTPUT Safety Issue: Collision risk between ropax ship and sailboat The events on different ship types from 2013 to 2014 in the Northern Baltic Sea (N=754).
EXAMPLES OF OUTPUT Spatial Distribution of Maritime Accidents and Spatial Cold Spots and Hot Spots Based on Incidents and Their Event Risk Values Safety Issue : Accidental hotspot area The events from 2013 to 2014 in the Northern Baltic Sea (N=754).
EXAMPLES OF OUTPUT 35000 25 100 100 90 90 30000 Safety Issue I 20 80 80 25000 70 70 15 60 60 20000 50 50 15000 Safety Issue II 10 40 40 10000 30 30 5 20 20 5000 10 10 0 0 0 0 Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2010Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2011Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012
RISK ANALYSIS
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION AND BE SAFE! HELCO COM Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission Katajanokanlaituri 6 B, FI-00160 Helsinki, Finland Valtteri Laine Project Manager Tel: +358 40 3527 689 E-mail: valtteri.laine@helcom.fi
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