Man-made Environmental Risks in Siberia: Terrestrial ecosystems and hydrological cycling (notes to a Chapter for the ENVIRO-RISK Final Report) A. Shvidenko, M.Kabanov, A.Baklanov, E.Gordov, I.McCallum, V.Lykosov, S.Nilsson, A.Onuchin, Y. Pushistov, D. Schepaschenko, E.Vaganov
Prerequisites • Sustainable development of natural landscapes • Approach to and definition of environmental risk • Short term and long term risks • Methodology of risk assessment • Resilience, disturbances and succession dynamics of ecosystems as socio- ecological systems
Climate, Permafrost and… PERMAFROST 1981-2000 2081-2100 B1 Trends of increasing temperature A, W and S (oC/100yr), 1976-2002 West Siberia: 3.7; 6.8; 1.2 2081-2100 A2 Middle Siberia 6.3; 3.3; 5.9 Near Baikal 6.3; 8.3; 7.5 but this is on average Dynamics of permafrost as follows from INM RAS climate model experiments: in 1981-2000 (top), 2081 - 2100 under scenario В 1 (middle) and in 2081 - 2100 under scenario А 2 (bottom)
… mostly negative Human Impact • Annually in the Northern part of WS up to 35 000 breaks of oil pipe lines • Including 300 officially registered with oil spills >10 000 t of each • Destroyed tundra surface >15% • Physical destruction of natural landscapes >30% of total areas of the territories • Rivers of the Ob’-Irtish basin in JNAO belong to 5 th and 6 th classes of water quality: “dirty” and “very dirty”; concentration of combination of Fe, Mn, oil products, …exceeds MAC by several ten-fold • Ecological state is a driver of 80% of sickness • Parasitic contamination of water and fish • Destructive impact of industrial intervention on life of indigenous nations
Risk assessment • Stability of disturbance regimes • Quantitative description of terrestrial vegetation successions as a basis of risk assessment • Sensitivity analysis of models of different types • Analysis of extraordinary situations • Synergism of climatic and human-induced drivers • Problem of accumulated stress and abrupt changes
Agricultural lands & ecosystems • Negative trends and increasing variability of climatic indicators • Loss of soil fertility due to water erosion, soil compaction, desertification, lack of nutrients, solination, increasing water table and other changes of water regime, soil contamination • Impoverishment of soil biota, decline of productivity of lands • Lack of water resources in arid regions • Damage of agriculture lands in river valleys due to increase of inundation • Outbreaks of traditional pests and microorganisms
Forests & other natural ecosystems • Alteration of forest fire regime • Anomalous outbreaks and spatial distribution of traditional and new insects • Loss of biodiversity • “Green” desertification • Physical destruction of sites, thermocarst, soliflucation • Impacts of air pollution, soil and water contamination
Succession regularities as a footprint of global change • Cenogenic • Climatogenic • Biogenic • Pyrogenic • Technogenic (including management, e.g. forest harvest) • Pseudoclimax
Increasing risk of disturbances Hurricane in Irkutsk oblast of 16 May 2004: 78000 ha of damaged forests The picture after a next one 10 February 2005 Fire, insects, combined impacts
Hydrology • Risks dealt with change of hydrological regimes of natural landscapes (trends, variability) • Impact of destruction of permafrost. Steppization and green desertification • Change of run-off of large Siberian rivers (extreme phenomena, variability) • Underground water
Draft outline of the Chapter Introduction. (1) Rationale. Paradigm of sustainable development of natural landscapes (including all components of landscapes). (2) Estimation of risks in ecosystems – definitions, methods and impacts. Short-term and long-term risks. (3) Terrestrial ecosystems of Siberia as socio-economic systems. Resilience, disturbances and succession dynamics of ecosystems. ◙ Quantitative description of terrestrial vegetation succession as a basis of risk assessment ◙ Sensitivity analysis of models of different types ◙ Analysis of extraordinary situations ◙ Synergism of climatic and human-induced drivers
Draft outline of the Chapter –cnt’d (4) The impacts of current and future climate (including hydrology) on Siberian ecosystems and landscapes ◙ Climate specifics of recent decades ◙ Future climate as a driver – major models (IPCC) ◙ Risks dealt with change of hydrological regimes of natural landscapes ◙ Impact of destruction of permafrost ◙ Change of run-off of large Siberian rivers (extreme phenomena, variability) ◙ Underground water
Outline of the Chapter – cnt’d (5) Man-made changes and impacts on current state of terrestrial vegetation (5.1) Agriculture ◙ Loss of soil fertility due to water erosion, soil compaction, desertification, lack of nutrients,salination, increasing water table and other changes of water regime, soil contamination ◙ Impoverishment of soil biota, decline of productivity of land ◙ Lack of water resources in arid regions ◙ Damage of agriculture lands in river valleys due to increase of inundation ◙ Outbreaks of traditional and new pests and microorganisms ◙ Impacts on deer farming (5.2) Forests ◙ Alteration of forest fire regime ◙ Anomalous outbreaks and spatial distribution of traditional and new insects ◙ Loss of biodiversity ◙ “Green” desertification ◙ Physical destruction of sites, thermocarst, soliflucation ◙ Impacts of air pollution, soil and water contamination ◙ Long period impacts on successions – in the framework of a unified approach (cenogenic; climatogenic; biogenic; pyrogenic; technogenic (including management, e.g. forest harvest)
Draft outline of the Chapter – cnt’d (5.3) Wetlands. (5.4) Grassland and shrubs. ◙ Recent and current state ◙ Impacts on major GHG budgets (6) Expected changes in 21st century: major drivers, models and forecasts ◙ Models: global (e.g. based on Cramer et al., 2003; Chebakova et al., 2007; Gustafson et al. (2007), TEM, etc.) (7) Adaptation to and mitigation of negative consequences of global change (social, economic and ecological aspects) ◙ Problem of effective monitoring ◙ Sustainable management of natural landscapes ◙ Governance of natural resources ◙ Anticipatory strategy of preparation of forest landscapes to climate change
The Chapter should present… Siberia is the region where (1) the most dramatic climate change over the globe is expected; (2) severe anthropogenic pressure is observed in vast territories of the region; (3) landscapes and ecosystems are very vulnerable to global change. The above defines Siberia as one of hot spots in the contemporary world. This region may function as a generator of small changes in regional systems potentially leading to profound changes in the ways in which the Earth System operates. The most important issues affecting the stability of environment and ecosystems, on availability of potential risks and uncontrolled fluctuations of current state and future trajectories of development of natural landscapes and ecosystems in the region are: (1) potential threat to infrastructure originated from thawing of permafrost in major region of oil and gas extraction and exploration; (2) increased variability of regional climate that negatively impacts the terrestrial ecosystems in different ways; (3) increased risks of catastrophic wild vegetation (particularly forest) fire and outbreaks of dangerous forest insects; (4) strictly negative ecological impacts of the regional industry on environment that is revealed in atmospheric pollution, soil and water contamination, physical destruction of natural landscapes, some other impacts; (5) lack of knowledge of potential boundaries of stability, buffering capacity, responses and feedbacks of ecosystems due to climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressure; (6) impact of predicted global change on health and life standard of regional population; and (7) need of cognition of future developments of the changing world as a complex combined ecological, economic and social system. The overall impacts of global change on regional environment and ecosystems can be dramatic and may exceed the buffering capacity and resilience of terrestrial biota. Responses and feedbacks of Siberian landscapes are poorly understood but possibilities of substantial acceleration of warming and increasing emissions of greenhouse gases are very likely.
It’s necessary to bring to policy makers that The overall impacts of global change on regional environment and ecosystems can be dramatic and may exceed the buffering capacity and resilience of terrestrial biota. Responses and feedbacks of Siberian landscapes are poorly understood but possibilities of substantial acceleration of warming and increasing emissions of greenhouse gases are very likely. It will impact the condition and vitality of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, the functioning of wetlands and arid landscapes, agricultural and urban territories. This situation requires development of anticipatory strategies for preparation of Siberian landscapes and ecosystems in order to provide adaptation to and mitigation of the negative impacts and consequences of climate change.
Recommend
More recommend
