STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE ON PERMAFROST - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE ON PERMAFROST STATE IN WESTERN SIBERIA ON PERMAFROST STATE IN WESTERN SIBERIA USING SPACE IMAGES USING SPACE IMAGES Yu.M. Polishchuk 1,2 , V.P. Dneprovskaya 1 , N.A.Bryksina 2 1 Institute of Petroleum Chemistry, SB RAS, 3, Akademichesky Ave., Tomsk, 634021, Russia e-mail: vpi@ipc.tsc.ru ; phone: +7 3822 491811; fax: +7 3822 491457 2 Ugra research institute of information technologies 151, Mira street, Khanty-Mansiysk, 628011, Russia e-mail: Yu_Polishchuk@ugrasu.ru; phone: +7 34671 57669 Институт химии нефти СО РАН Югорский НИИ Информационных технологий Институт химии нефти СО РАН Югорский НИИ Информационных технологий Institute of Petroleum Chemistry SB RAS Ugra research institute of information technologies Institute of Petroleum Chemistry SB RAS Ugra research institute of information technologies

DATA and OBJECTS OF GEOCRYOLOGICAL STUDIES

Climatic data Long-term time numbers of mid-annual values of air temperature, quantity of atmospheric precipitation and other climatic parameters, received at 156 meteorological stations in West-Siberian territory for the period 1955 - 2006 years have been analyzed. Remote sensing data Collections of space images of 1973-2006 yr included: Landsat - 1 (sc а nn е r MSS), 10.08.1973 Resurs - F2 (scanner МК 4), 14.06.1993 Landsat - 5 ( sc а nn е r MSS), 27.07.1984 Landsat - 7 ( sc а nn е r ETM), 07.08.1999 Landsat - 5 (sc а nn е r MSS), 26.06.1988 Landsat - 7 ( sc а nn е r ETM), 03.08.2001 Landsat - 4 ( sc а nn е r Т M), 01.08.1988 Landsat - 7 (sc а nn е r ETM), 03.07.2002 Landsat - 5 ( sc а nn е r Т M), 20.09.1989 Spot - 5 (sc а nn е r HRV), 20.07.2005

Objects of geocryological studies The most effective geoindicators geoindicators of cryogenic changes of permafrost territories of cryogenic changes of permafrost territories The most effective under global warming using remote sensing are under global warming using remote sensing are thermokarst thermokarst lakes. Below is a lakes. Below is a fragment of space image Landsat г .) .) with indicated objects of with indicated objects of geocryological studies: fragment of space image 7 (07.08.1999 г Landsat- -7 (07.08.1999 thermokarst lakes - 1; dried lakes (khasyreys) – 2. 1 2

CHARACTERISTICS of PILOT TERRITORIES and OBJECTS OF GEOCRYOLOGICAL STUDIES

PILOT TERRITORIES IN WEST-SIBERIAN PERMAFROST

Map of geobotanical zoning Map of geobotanical zoning PT-5 PT-1

Map of permafrost zoning Map of permafrost zoning Continuous permafrost section New Urengoy Nadym PT-5 PT-1 Discontinuous permafrost section Patchy permafrost section Outside the permafrost section

Some results of climatic changes analysis

Temperature change Temperature change in territory of Continuous and Discontinuous in territory of Continuous and Discontinuous permafrost section (Yamal Yamal- -Nenets Nenets region) region) permafrost section ( T, ºС -4.0 Mid-annual air -5.0 temperature in the -6.0 second period -7.0 (1980-2006 years) in -8.0 comparison with the -9.0 period of 1973-1979 -10.0 years has increased 0,96 0 С -11.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 year - Mean value - confidence limit for 90 % confidence probability

Climatic changes in territory of Patchy permafrost Climatic changes in territory of Patchy permafrost section ( (Khanty Khanty- -Mansyisk Mansyisk region region) ) section Mid-annual values of air temperature Mid-annual air T, ºС temperature in the second 0.0 period -1.0 (1980-1992 years) in comparison with the -2.0 ` period of 1955-1970 years -3.0 has increased -4.0 approximately 1,0 0 С -5.0 year 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Quantity of atmospheric precipitation Q, mm 55 Quantity of atmospheric 50 precipitation has decreased approximately 45 0.7 mm 40 35 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 year - Mean value - confidence limit for 90 % confidence probability

Climatic changes in territory of Outside the permafrost section Climatic changes in territory of Outside the permafrost section (southern part of Western Siberia southern part of Western Siberia) ) ( Mid-annual values of air temperature T, ºС 2 1 Mid-annual air temperature in 0 the second period (1980-1992 years) in comparison with the -1 period of 1955-1970 years has -2 increased approximately 1,0 0 С -3 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 year Quantity of atmospheric precipitation Q, mm 42 Quantity of atmospheric 38 precipitation has increased approximately 0.2 mm 34 30 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 year - Mean value - confidence limit for 90 % confidence probability

Analysis of geocryologic changes

г .), 1 (10.08.1973 г Fragment of space images Landsat- -1 (10.08.1973 .), Fragment of space images Landsat central part of PT- -1 1 central part of PT Simbols: 1 – thermokarst lakes; 2 –dried lakes 2 1

Space image Landsat- -1 (10.08.1973) 1 (10.08.1973) Space image Landsat with indicated thermokarst thermokarst lakes lakes with indicated

Fragment of space image Spot- -5 5 ( ( 2 20.0 0.07 7. .2005 2005) ) Fragment of space image Spot

Comparison of space images Comparison of space images Landsat- -1 (10.08.1973) and Spot 1 (10.08.1973) and Spot- -5 5 ( ( 2 20.0 0.07 7. .2005 2005) ) Landsat

Consequent stages of decrease of lake 9 area c а b d Changes of area of thermokarst lake 9 (red) 1973 (a) 1993 (b) 2002 (c) 2005 (d) 112 ha 65 ha 52 ha 47 ha Landsat-4 (57 m) Resurs -F2 (10 m) Landsat-7 (30 m) Spot-5 (5 m)

Temporal changes of lake 9 area S, ha Т , years

Consequent stages of decrease of lake 7 area а b c d Thermokarst lake 7 areas (red) changes 1973 1988 1993 2005 151 27 3 0 Landsat-4 (57m) Landsat-5 (30 m) Resurs -F2 (10 m) Spot-5 (5 m)

Temporal changes of lake 7 area S,ha Т ,years

Decrease of thermokarst thermokarst lakes lakes’ ’ areas in time in PT areas in time in PT- -1 1 Decrease of S, ha 11 10 9 6 8 7 5 4 3 2 1 T, years

Analysis of lakes area changes in PT- -1 1 Analysis of lakes area changes in PT Lake number 1973 1988 2002 2005 1 26 13 0 0 Decrease of lake area 2 90 80 69 31 3 14 12 3 0 Increase of lake area 4 61 27 2 0 No changes 5 76 58 49 47 6 55 53 45 39 7 151 27 0 0 8 43 22 14 13 9 112 68,3 52 47 10 66 57 36 30 11 50 25 6 0 65 61,5 61,7 65 12 Total area of lakes : Total area of lakes : 13 34,7 33,5 33,3 33,4 14 68,5 66,8 65,6 54,9 1973 - - 2273,3 2273,3 ha ha, , 15 25,3 22,7 24,2 24,8 1973 16 9,8 12,6 13,4 14,1 2005 - 2005 - 1809,5 1809,5 ha ha. . 52,9 56,4 57,3 57,3 17 46,8 51,3 51,3 51,2 18 19 65 65,8 65,5 66,5 20 118,2 121,4 121,8 122,8 Total area decrease of lakes in PT-1: 21 52,2 55,8 57,4 48,6 21,7 26,8 27,7 27,1 22 = 463,8 ha ) = S (1973 – S S (2005 68,4 72,7 75,7 76,2 S ) – 23 (1973 ) (2005 ) 33,2 34,8 35,7 35,1 24 25 25 25,1 26,5 28,2 26 162,8 167,4 171,5 170,2 Normalized total area decrease - 20% 27 22,2 24,1 24,7 24,9 28 36,9 41,5 41,3 41,6 29 8 9,7 10,3 10,2 17,5 22,9 21,7 21,9 30 42,4 42,7 46,2 46,5 31 32 29,3 32,5 32 31,6 33 49,6 50,4 50,6 49,7 34 14,9 16,2 17,6 17,6 35 33,1 34,1 38,2 39,8 36 14,1 15,9 16,5 16,9 37 11,9 13 14,6 15,4 38 32,7 35,9 35,6 36,3 94 94,6 100,2 100,3 39 40 273,2 273,2 273,1 273,2

Location of pilot territories in West-Siberian permafrost

Fragment of space images Landsat- -5 (1988 year), central part of PT 5 (1988 year), central part of PT- -2 2 Fragment of space images Landsat Simbols: 1 – thermokarst lakes; 2 –dried lakes 1 2 1 1 2

Analysis of lakes area changes in PT - -2, 3, 4 2, 3, 4 Analysis of lakes area changes in PT PT- -4 4 PT PT- -3 3 PT PT- -2 2 PT Total area of lakes : : Total area of lakes : : Total area of lakes Total area of lakes Total area of lakes : : Total area of lakes 1973 – – 4158 4158 ha ha, , 1973 1973 1973 – – 4609,1 4609,1 ha ha, , 1973 – – 5293 5293 ha ha, , 1973 2005 – – 3259,6 3259,6 ha ha. . 2005 – – 4320,3 4320,3 ha ha. . 2005 2005 2005 – – 3448,3 3448,3 ha ha. . 2005 Total area decrease of lakes in PT-3: Total area decrease of lakes in PT-4: Total area decrease of lakes in PT-2: 2898 ha 1844,7 ha 288,8 ha Normalized total area decrease – Normalized total area decrease - Normalized total area decrease - 22% 35% 6%

г .), 7 (07.08.1999 г Fragment of space images Landsat- -7 (07.08.1999 .), Fragment of space images Landsat central part of PT- -5 5 central part of PT Simbols: 1 – thermokarst lakes; 2 –dried lakes 1 2

Space image of PT- -5 with indicated 5 with indicated thermokarst thermokarst lakes lakes Space image of PT Landsat- -4 (01.08.1988) 4 (01.08.1988) Landsat

Consequent stages of changes of lake 52 area in PT-5 b a d e c Decrease of area (red) of thermokarst lake 52 in time 1984 (a) 1988 (b) 1989 (c) 1999 (d) 2001 (e) 43.5 ha 45.6 ha 49.0 ha 3.9 ha 4.4 ha Landsat-5 (57 m) Landsat-4 (30 m) Landsat-5 (30 m) Landsat-7 (30 m) Landsat-7 (30 m)