23/11/2018 Global Warming and Climate Change Tim Cooper Phys 111 Oct 18 Global Warming 1
23/11/2018 Satellites measure • Heat from Sun to Earth • Heat from Earth to Space • -Subtract = > Global Warming 2
23/11/2018 Nasa Data: Note Flow of Heat from Oceans to Atmosphere (La Nina and El Nino… every few years) Global Warming Ended in 1998! 3
23/11/2018 Up to 2016 2017 …. A tad below 2016 so far Including 2017 4
23/11/2018 Climate Change Why the poles are cold 5
23/11/2018 The Earth’s climate/weather system is a heat engine! 6
23/11/2018 Effect of Rotation (Coriolis force) Ice and Snow Ice reflects 90% of light energy Water Absorbs 90% of light energy Hotter = > ice becomes water = > A positive feedback less sunlight reflected = > hotter Earth 7
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23/11/2018 So Pole Warms more than equator As we lower the temperature difference, The “heat engine” falters and slows. Cells become less stable Jet Stream wanders more(“Polar Vortex”) Weather patterns move more slowly Weather patterns stick in one place longer Droughts and Floods Calgary AB, 2013 9
23/11/2018 Was the flooding in Calgary caused by global warming? Pause for dramatic effect, and possibly an answer 99% Yes Hansen’s Analysis Science and History 10
23/11/2018 All countries’ scientific councils • Agree on three points • The planet is warming • We are causing it • It is very, very dangerous … is this a proof??? Rigg’s Glacier: Muir Inlet. Alaska’s Glacial Bay Nat. Pk; (1941.. 70m feet thick) 11
23/11/2018 Rigg’s Glacier in 2004 But is it a proof? Scientists are split on Global Warming? But is that a proof? 12
23/11/2018 The Earth received energy from the Sun. 5500 o C 14 o C 1824: Joseph Fourier Calculated Earth’s temp to be -18C Experiment = > average of + 14C Fourier Deduced… Something in the air is blocking heat escape! 13
23/11/2018 John Tyndall measures the heat absorbing properties of carbon dioxide 1859 1896 Arrhenius: Doubling carbon dioxide levels in the earth’s atmosphere (290ppm- > 580ppm)would raise global temperatures 5-6C Included ice and water vapour feedbacks Consistent with today’s calculations! 14
23/11/2018 A tale of two planets…. Venus, 460C Earth 14C V . Moon, 7C Moon, -18C For the last 1000 years 403ppm in Feb 29 2016 408.5 ppm May 2 nd 2017 411 ppm in June 2018 15
23/11/2018 Where did the Carbon Dioxide come from? Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect Coal (electricity ) Oil (transportation ) And Natural Gas 16
23/11/2018 Carbon Dioxide Flows (2005-2014) Total: Human activity = > 10.8 GT Carbon (9.9 GT Fossil Fuels and Cement, 0.9 GT Deforest.) Oceans absorb 2.8 GT Land plants absorb 3.3 GT Atmosphere accumulates 4.8GT Ice Ages and Carbon Dioxide Humans appeared 200 Thousand years ago Civilisation started 10kya, in the Holocene 17
23/11/2018 Looking ahead by looking back… The last time CO2 was 400ppm : 3MYA, the Pliocene Carbon Dioxide increasing 200x faster than in history 18
23/11/2018 Looking Ahead Pliocene(3MYA): 400ppm Carbon Dioxide Sea level was about 15-25m higher (and the temperature 2-3C warmer) Why are London, NY, Shanghai and Chilliwack still here? The Earth is not in radiative equilibrium. Just give it time… it will get there. Current sea level rise about 3mm/year, so 25m/(3mm/year)= 8000 years. Or feedbacks and/or new emissions speed it up Hanson recently pointed out the oceans in the past have never taken more than 200 years to respond.. So Chwk? 19
23/11/2018 Global Climate Models The State of the Art in Modeling the Climate (2005) Carbon Dioxide Effect vs data 20
23/11/2018 Aerosols (aka Smogs) Aerosols vs data 21
23/11/2018 All factors vs data https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world / Carbon Dioxide isn’t the only problem Methane traps heat too! Carbon Dioxide, half life of hundreds of years Methane (natural gas), half life of 10 years (increasing). Over 100 years, one kg of methane traps 33 times one kg of carbon dioxide. But over 20 years, it is 84 times Methane from Fracking= > 3-5% escape. So… actually worse than coal for < 100yrs About 23% of the warming so far from Methane 22
23/11/2018 So with present government policies.. … actually we now expect by 2060 Land warms more than water (hence IPPC preds look smaller) Why so Hot??? After 2C… • Water Vapour Feedback • Ice/Snow feedback • Carbon dioxide in oceans feedback • Soil Warming feedback • Tundra Melting feedback(not in models) Not included: Methane Hydrates, 3 rd world meat, • 23
23/11/2018 Water Vapour….an almost 50% effect! Earth’s atmosphere contains 4-5% more water vapour than before we burned fossil fuels! It traps heat. Carbon Dioxide from Oceans Feedback 24
23/11/2018 Carbon Dioxide from Oceans Feedback The Holocene; we should be going icy! 25
23/11/2018 Plant Respiration and Soil Activity Note: Ocean Acidification Soil Warming Numbers in GT or GT/yr. Fridge or Table??? 26
23/11/2018 Permafrost melting = > decay = > Methane/CO2 1672 GTonnes of Carbon: note the compost effect Could triple the Carbon in the atmosphere! Composting!!! Food Supply • Fraser Valley dryer summers • Bigger freshets (30% says Vanc) • Californian food to be clobbered as glaciers gone from mountains • India (25% food loss at 2C) • China (35% food loss at 2C) • Spain, Italy, Australia…. All deserts 27
23/11/2018 Does this have to happen? Politics 28
23/11/2018 The planet’s Top Climate Scientist Says if the Tar sands are fully developed it is ‘game- over’ for the climate; a 40% increase in CO2 The BC government is subsidising LNG facilities up north(900k EV), the Federal government is supporting Dilbit pipeline extension to fully develop the tar sands. Does this have to happen? A recent IMF report estimates that Canada subsidises fossil fuels by $34 Billion per year. $1 Billion Direct Federal Support ($1.3?) $5 Billion Direct Federal and Provincial Support $28 Billion in Indirect Subsidies . http://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/subsidies/ 29
23/11/2018 Climate Action Network Europe calculates… Feb 2015 30
23/11/2018 What SHOULD N-America be doing? Only 15% of Canada’s Carbon Dioxide emissions come From you and me! So…. 85% from industry. To influence industry requires an incentive….. Literally one days work for the feds 31
23/11/2018 Tweaking the Tax System! Use a Pigouvian system - Tax people when they do bad (sin taxes) - Don’t tax them when they do good (create jobs, serve the public) So reduce business and income taxes, and Start taxing pollution...i.e. a carbon tax The Fed. Cons said a carbon tax will ruin the economy Canada’s economic community (M. Jaccard) say: Millio Cumula Change Change/ GDP Impact per ns of tive from year (1997$) year as % 1995$ GDP prior of GDP Loss period 2010 4,773 - 4,773 - 1,193 1,326,000 - 0.090% 2015 4,889 - 116 - 23 1,464,011 - 0.002% 2020 4,551 + 338 + 68 1,616,387 + 0.004% 2030 3,829 + 722 + 72 1,970,366 + 0.004% For $50 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (BC carbon tax frozen at $35 per tonne) 32
23/11/2018 Can we substitute for Fossil Fuels? Top priority, eliminate burning coal for electricity 33
23/11/2018 Photo-Voltaic Panels… work on the ground too Solar Energy Progress up to 2015 UAE contract for 2.5c/kWhr! (cite C… 8c/kWhr) (China 2017 50GW) 34
23/11/2018 Generate Electricity From Wind! 7 Megawatt Turbine In Germany Cost about the Same as coal (4c/kWhr) BUT Cheaper overall!! (40,000/yr dead from coal in US) June ‘16. Mexico. 3c/kWhr Cost of Wind Energy 35
23/11/2018 Global New Energy Generation Installed in 2015 70% renewable for 2017! During 2017 China added 50GW of PV Global New Energy Generation 2016 36
23/11/2018 In 2015, Denmark generated 42% of its electricity From wind/solar (mostly wind). It will increase This in the future. 31/3/16: Holland has passed a law to ban all sales of gasoline or diesel powered cars by 2025. India by 2027(ish) California 100% renewable by 2050 http://www.dw.de/100-percent-renewable- energy-scenario-for-california/a- 17808841?maca= en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf California could meet its energy needs with renewables alone, according to Stanford University researchers. The authors of a recent study say a transition scenario is economically as well as technically feasible. 37
23/11/2018 • The same group also say… • After measuring Canada's clean-energy resources, the Stanford team says Canada can reach this goal through the following breakdown: • 58 per cent wind. • 22 per cent solar. • 16 per cent hydro. • Two per cent wave. • Two per cent geothermal. JOBS There were 23,700 people directly employed by the clean energy industry in 2013, compared to 22,340 jobs in the oilsands, the report found. Those green jobs include people employed in clean power production, energy efficiency, biofuels and manufacturing of green energy technologies. Clean Energy Canada, 2014. McDonalds Canada employs 80,000 Kinder Morgan Pipeline.. About 80 permanent jobs 2017 : N. America wide now more jobs in solar than oil, coal & gas combined! 38
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