Powering New York State and the World With Wind, Water, and the Sun - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Powering New York State and the World With Wind, Water, and the Sun to Address Global Warming Sun to Address Global Warming, Air Pollution, and Energy Security Air Pollution, and Energy Security Mark Z. Jacobson New School Atmosphere/Energy Program New York City Stanford University November 15, 2012 J. G. Swanepoel/Dreamstime.com Wind farm near Middelgrunden, Denmark

What’s the Problem? Why act Quickly? Air pollution kills 2.5-3 million people worldwide each year. Ai ll ti kill 2 5 3 illi l ld id h Arctic sea ice may disappear in 10-20 years. Global temperatures are Arctic sea ice may disappear in 10 20 years. Global temperatures are rising at a faster rate than any time in history. Increasing energy demand is increasing pollution, global warming, and I i d d i i i ll ti l b l i d energy prices. Higher energy prices lead to economic, social, political instability  Drastic problems require immediate and definite solutions

Norilsk, Russia http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html

Sukinda, India http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html

Linfen, China http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html

Aerosol particle particle pollution in p NYC during winter 2009 i t 2009 (values above 7 ( ug/m 3 increase mortality the mortality the most) http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/12/15/nyregion/air-480.jpg

Lung of LA Teenage Nonsmoker in 1970s; Nonsmoker in 1970s; Lungs of People in Most Big Cities of the World Big Cities of the World Today SCAQMD/CARB

A Young Air Pollution Victim Victim

Mean Global Temperature Anomalies WARMEST YEARS 1. 2010 2. 2005 3 3. 2007 2007 4. 1998 5. 2009 6. 6. 2011 2011 7. 2006 8. 2003 9. 2002 10 10. 2004 2004 NASA GISS, 2012

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

Sea Ice in 2012 Versus 1979-2000 Mean Sea ice in September, 2012 lowest in satellite history http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, Air Pollution, Energy Security , gy y ELECTRIC POWER VEHICLES Recommended – Wind Water Sun (WWS) Recommended Wind, Water, Sun (WWS) 1. Wind 2. CSP WWS-Battery-Electric 3. Geothermal 4. Tidal WWS-Hydrogen Fuel Cell 5. PV 6. Wave 7. Hydroelectricity Not Recommended Not Recommended Nuclear Corn, cellulosic, sugarcane ethanol Coal-CCS Soy, algae biodiesel y, g Natural gas, biomass Compressed natural gas Energy & Env. Sci, 2, 148 (2009)

Why Not Natural Gas? 50-70 times more CO 2 and air pollution per kWh than wind 50 70 times more CO 2 and air pollution per kWh than wind Methane from natural gas a main contributor to Arctic ice loss. Natural gas causes more global warming but less air pollution mortality than coal over 150 years due to less sulfate (a cooling t lit th l 150 d t l lf t ( li agent) and more methane (a warming agent) from natural gas than coal Coal causes higher mortality coal. Coal causes higher mortality. Hydrofracking causes land and water supply degradation

Why Not Clean Coal (With Carbon Capture)? 50 times more CO emissions per kWh than wind 50 times more CO 2 emissions per kWh than wind 150 times more air pollutant emissions per kWh than wind Requires 25% more energy, thus 25% more coal mining and transport and traditional pollution than normal coal transport and traditional pollution than normal coal.

Why Not Nuclear? 9-25 times more pollution per kWh than wind from mining & refining uranium and using fossil fuels for electricity during the 11-19 years to permit g y g y p (6-10 y) and construct (4-9 y) nuclear plant compared with 2-5 years for a wind or solar farm Risk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to date have melted) Risk of nuclear weapons proliferation p p Unresolved waste issues

Why Not Ethanol? Corn and cellulosic E85 cause same or higher air pollution as gasoline g Corn E85: 90-200% of CO 2 emissions of gasoline Cellulosic E85: 50-150% of CO 2 emissions of gasoline Wind-BEVs: <1% of CO 2 emissions as gasoline Enormous land use and water requirements Enormous land use and water requirements

Wind Power, Wind-Driven Wave Power www.mywindpowersystem.com

Hydroelectric, Geothermal, Tidal Power www.gizmag.com www.inhabitat.com myecoproject.org www.sir-ray.com

Concentrated Solar Power, PV Power Torresol Gemasolar Spain, 15 hrs storage, Matthew Wright, Beyond Zero www.solarthermalmagazine.com i treehugger com i.treehugger.com

WWS Transportation T esla Roadster all electric Nissan Leaf all electric T esla Model S all electric weeble.net www.blogcdn.com www.greenlaunches.com www.ecofriend.com www.blogcdn.com Hydrogen fuel cell bus Electric truck Hydrogen fuel cell–electric hybrid bus

WWS Transportation Hydrogen fuel cell ship y g p Hydrogen fuel cell tractor y g http://green.autoblog .com Zmships.eu Ec.europa.eu Electric ferry Cryogenic hydrogen aircraft http://technabob.com/blog/2010/01/19/rechargeable-ship/

Air-Source Heat Pump, Air Source Electric Water Heater, Solar Water Pre-Heater Midlandpower.com Conservpros.com Adaptivebuilders.com Heat pump water heater

Store Heat During Summer For Summer For Winter Use Drake Landing Solar Community Okotoks, Alberta, Canada http://www dlsc ca/ http://www.dlsc.ca/ Sunlight heats glycol solution that is piped to and heats water in storage tanks. The water is distributed through pipes in multiple boreholes to heat soil, which is insulated. In winter, heated water returns to homes to heat heated water returns to homes to heat air and water.

End Use Power Demand For All Purposes WORLD U.S. NYS 2010 (TW) 12.5 2.50 0.094 2030 with current fuels 16.9 2.83 0.096 2030 converting all energy To wind-water-sun (WWS) To wind water sun (WWS) and electricty/H 2 11.5 1.78 0.060 32 37 37 2030 reduction (%) due to WWS

Number of Plants or Devices to Power World TECHNOLOGY PCT SUPPLY 2030 NUMBER 5-MW wind turbines 50% 3.8 mill. (0.8% in place) 0.75-MW wave devices 1 720,000 100-MW geothermal plants 4 5350 (1.7% in place) 1300-MW hydro plants 1300 MW hydro plants 4 4 900 (70% in place) 900 (70% in place) 1-MW tidal turbines 1 490,000 3-kW Roof PV systems 6 1.7 billion 300-MW Solar PV plants 300 MW S l PV l t 14 14 40 000 40,000 300-MW CSP plants 20 49,000 100%

Number of Plants or Devices to Power NYS TECHNOLOGY PCT SUPPLY 2030 NUMBER 5-MW onshore wind turbines 10% 4020 5-MW offshore wind turbines 5 MW ff h i d t bi 40 40 12 700 12,700 5-kW Res. roof PV systems 6 5 million 100-kW com/gov roof PV systems 12 500,000 50-MW Solar PV plants 10 828 100-MW CSP plants 10 387 100-MW geothermal plants g p 5 36 1300-MW hydro plants 5.5 6.6 (89% in place) 1-MW tidal turbines 1 2600 0.75-MW wave devices 0.75 MW wave devices 0.5 0.5 1910 1910 100%

World Wind Speeds at 100m 90 10 8 0 6 6 4 -90 2 -180 -90 0 90 180 All wind over land in high-wind areas outside Antarctica ~ 70-80 TW All i d l d i hi h i d t id A t ti 70 80 TW = 6-7 times world end-use WWS power demand 2030 of 11.5 TW

New York State Wind Resources Dvorak et al., 2011

Mean 80-m Wind Speed From Data Archer and Jacobson (2005)

World Surface Solar Surface downward solar radiation (W/m 2 ) (global avg: 193; land: 183) 90 250 200 0 150 100 -90 -180 -90 0 90 180 All solar over land in high-solar locations~ 340 TW All l l d i hi h l l ti 340 TW = 30 times world end-use WWS power demand 2030 of 11.5 TW

NYS: 4-4.5 kWh/m 2 /day)

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Wind-BEV Footprint 1-2.8 km 2 Footprint 1 2.8 km Turbine spacing 0.35-0.7% of US Nuclear-BEV 0.05-0.062% Cellulosic E85 Footprint 33% 4.7-35.4% of US of total; the rest is buffer Corn E85 Corn E85 9.8-17.6% of Geoth BEV US 0.006-0.008% Solar PV-BEV 0.077-0.18%

Area to power 100% of NYS for all purposes with WWS Onshore wind: footprint 0 05 km 2 footprint=0.05 km 2 spacing=1.46% of NYS (blue is open space) Geothermal Geothermal Offshore 0.01% of NYS wind: spacing= 4 62% of 4.62% of Solar PV+CSP NYS (blue is power plants open space) 0.85% of NYS All rooftop PV (0.45% of NYS)

Matching Power Demand With Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Hydro California electricity was found to be obtainable from WWS for 99.8% of all hours in 2005, 2006 without over-sizing WWS capacity, using demand-response, or using S much CSP storage. Hart and Jacobson (2011); www.stanford.edu/~ehart/

Desertec www.dw-world.de/image/0,,4470611_1,00.jpg

Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh) ENERGY TECHNOLOGY 2008-2010 2020-2030 Wind onshore 4-7 ≤ 4 Wind offshore 10-17 8-13 Wave >>11 4-11 Geothermal Geothermal 4-7 4 7 4-7 4 7 Hydroelectric 4 4 CSP 10-15 7-8 Solar PV Solar PV 9-13 9-13 5-7 5-7 Tidal >>11 5-7 Conventional (+Externalities) 7 (+5.3)=12.3 8-9.6(+5.7)=13.7-15.3 Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)