conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Optimising Global Connectivity by Submarine and Terrestrial Routes Terrestrial Routes Matching Sergey Shavkunov Company TTK
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Presenter Profile Dr. Shavkunov jointed to strategic marketing at Company TTK (TransTeleCom) in 2001. Prior to joint TTK he has written several studies on the Russian market for fiber-optic communications. Sergey Shavkunov received communications. Sergey Shavkunov received Ph.D. degree from the Institute of General Physics of Russian Academy of Science in 1989. Sergey Shavkunov Head of International Market Analysis Email: s.shavkunov @ttk.ru Tel: +7 (495) 784-6670
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Table of Contents Page Time, min 1. Global Capacity Demands 3 1 2. Eurasia Transit Drivers 4 2 3. BRIC Impact on Global Telecom 5 2 4. 4. Europe - Asia Capacity Market Europe - Asia Capacity Market 6 6 1 1 5. Wet & Land Routes Matching 7 1 6. Terrestrial Routes Implementation 8 1 7. Impact of Small Regional Projects 9 1 8. Hokkaido – Sakhalin Cable System 10 1 9. Benefits for Global Players 11 - 13 4 Conclusions 14 1 Total 15 min
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 1. Global Capacity Demand Global Capacity Demand Trends: � Overall capacity growth rate exceeds 60% despite the global economy recession � In 2009 over $2 billion were invested in submarine cables and $3 billion will be done this year � Europe – Asia route has the lowest bandwidth � Europe – Asia route has the lowest bandwidth International Internet Bandwidth Growth Lit Submarine Capacity by Route 3 Source: TeleGeography
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 2. Eurasia Transit Drivers Eurasia urgently needs more capacity: � Growing demand from China and India for direct access to European IXs � Higher growth of broadband users in Asia and Europe as well users in Asia and Europe as well as fast adoption of high-speed fiber access (fiber-to-the-home) � Triggering effect of research & Source: TeleGeography educational networks, which move World Broadband Subscribers by Region to wavelength level (TEIN 2&3, CAREN) � Higher needs for route diversification after several terrible misfortunes of several submarine cables in 2007-2009 4 Source: Point Topic, 2009
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 3. BRIC Impact on Global Telecom � Telecommunication industry has been one of the main drivers of BRIC economies during the period of 2005 – 2009, US$ billion Country 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Growth Selected Advanced Markets in 2009: Brazil 49 51 53 55 57 4% • USA, $304 billion, + 0.6% Russia 22 29 35 41 47 14% • UK, $94 billion, +2.0% India 17 18 21 24 27 10% • Japan, $220 billion, +3.0% China 72 83 115 119 124 4% Total 159 181 223 239 254 Source: Hottelecom � Consumption of basic telecom services will continue rapid � Consumption of basic telecom services will continue rapid growth in BRIC in next 5 years, million users: 2738 1544 1366 +246% 758 553 2014 +77% +80% 2009 2014 160 2009 2014 Source: Business Monitor 2009 Mobile users Internet users Broadband users � BRIC will require huge amount of new international capacity, Gbps: 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total growth from 3.7 to 14.0 Brazil 720 1 017 1 427 1 996 2 754 3 680 China 1 300 1 917 2 806 4 085 5 545 7 269 Tbps or 3.8 times! Russia 402 548 739 986 1 289 1 625 India 162 275 452 692 1 004 1 364 Source: TeleGeography 5
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 4. Europe - Asia Capacity Market Europe – Asia Capacity by Routes, Gbps � Different options exist to carry global traffic between Europe and Asia, including terrestrial one via Russia (Trans Russia) � Capacity demand between Europe and Asia Europe – Asia Revenue by Routes, will reach 1.5 Tbps or $500 $million million in 2015 � Demand on terrestrial Trans-Russian route is estimated to be 400 Gbps or $150 million 6 Source: Yankee Group, TTK
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 5. Wet & Land Routes Matching � Over 1 billion fiber-km of optical cables installed around the world � Long-distance infrastructure accounts for 30% of total fiber length � Share of submarine cables is less than 5% of total long-distance infrastructure 5% of total long-distance infrastructure counted in fiber-km Cumulative Global Fiber Deployment, � Wet and land routes have to million km be matched to increase global network performance � Land backbones became also available for global transit as far as telecom markets have been opened for competition 7 Source: KMI Research, CRU
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 6. Terrestrial Routes Implementation HSCS EuraAsia Highway Transit Capabilities, Gbps 400 Asia 300 CIS Europe 200 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 8
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 7. Impact of Small Regional Projects Cross-border network capillarity is improving significantly in Asia: � Multiple Russia – China interconnections China interconnections � Russia – North Korea terrestrial fiber-optic cable � Railcom’s fiber-optic cable across Mongolia � HSCS � Russia – Japan cable � Indo – China cable � China – Taiwan submarine cable Source: TTK, China Telecom, Reliance Globalcom 9
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 8. Hokkaido – Sakhalin Cable System Hokkaido – Sakhalin Cable System was build by NTT Communications and TTK in 2008: � HSCS provides access to the largest European telecommunication hubs – London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt via London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt via Eurasia Highway terrestrial route � Access to fast growing telecom markets of CIS countries: Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Belorussia HSCS � Access to over 1000 PoPs in Russia 10
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 9.1 Benefits: Diversity & Latency Wet and land route matching creates the new market value - multiple diversity and best latency 11 Source: TTK, NTT Communications, China Telecom, China Unicom, Pacnet
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 9.2 Benefits: Global Network Security During latest cuts of global submarine cables in January – February 2008, PCCW Global successfully managed risks due diversified network built after Taiwan earthquake in December 2006. The company rapidly re-routed its traffic from the Middle East to Hong Kong and then to Europe through Eurasia Highway land route. Highway land route. Source: PCCW’s Presentation at CAPACITY Middle East & North Africa, Dubai, UAE, February 27-28, 2008 12
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 9.3 Benefits: New Challenges � “Web, P2P and streaming traffic Internet Traffic by Applications, account for 78%, the majority of 2009 which is video” – TeleGeography Inc. � Asia and Europe have the worse indexes by average response time – Internet Traffic response time – Internet Traffic Report. � Eurasia Highway route has the shortest distance and less Source: TeleGeography Round-Trip Delay that improves performance of global IP networks (London – Hong Kong): � Trans-Russia < 200 ms; � Trans-ME & India ~ 260 ms; � Trans-US > 300 ms. Source: Internet Traffic Report, 25 January 2010 13
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Conclusions � Submarine and terrestrial global route matching improves network capillarity and gives vast access to global routes for national operators � � Regional projects, both wet or land, impact on traffic distribution in global networks � Such small projects will be internationally successful, if they create the new market value for global players: wider diversity, better latency, higher security,… 14
2010 conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services The 7th International Conference & Convention on Undersea Telecommunications Pacifico Convention Plaza Yokohama & InterContinental The Grand Yokohama 11 ~ 14 May 2010 www.suboptic.org
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