Optimising Global Connectivity by Submarine and Terrestrial Routes - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Optimising Global Connectivity by Submarine and Terrestrial Routes Matching Sergey Shavkunov Company TTK

conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Presenter Profile Dr. Shavkunov jointed to strategic marketing at Company TTK (TransTeleCom) in 2001. Prior to joint TTK he has written several studies on the Russian market for fiber-optic communications. Sergey Shavkunov received Ph.D. degree from the Institute of General Physics of Russian Academy of Science in 1989. Sergey Shavkunov Head of International Market Analysis Email: s.shavkunov @ttk.ru Tel: +7 (495) 784-6670

conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Table of Contents Page Time, min 1. Global Capacity Demands 3 1 2. Eurasia Transit Drivers 4 2 3. BRIC Impact on Global Telecom 5 2 4. Europe - Asia Capacity Market 6 1 5. Wet & Land Routes Matching 7 1 6. Terrestrial Routes Implementation 8 1 7. Impact of Small Regional Projects 9 1 8. Hokkaido – Sakhalin Cable System 10 1 9. Benefits for Global Players 11 - 13 4 Conclusions 14 1 Total 15 min

conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 1. Global Capacity Demand Global Capacity Demand Trends:  Overall capacity growth rate exceeds 60% despite the global economy recession  In 2009 over $2 billion were invested in submarine cables and $3 billion will be done this year  Europe – Asia route has the lowest bandwidth International Internet Bandwidth Growth Lit Submarine Capacity by Route 3 Source: TeleGeography

conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 2. Eurasia Transit Drivers Eurasia urgently needs more capacity:  Growing demand from China and India for direct access to European IXs  Higher growth of broadband users in Asia and Europe as well as fast adoption of high-speed fiber access (fiber-to-the-home)  Triggering effect of research & Source: TeleGeography educational networks, which move World Broadband Subscribers by Region to wavelength level (TEIN 2&3, CAREN)  Higher needs for route diversification after several terrible misfortunes of several submarine cables in 2007-2009 4 Source: Point Topic, 2009

conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 3. BRIC Impact on Global Telecom  Telecommunication industry has been one of the main drivers of BRIC economies during the period of 2005 – 2009, US$ billion Country 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Growth Selected Advanced Markets in 2009: Brazil 49 51 53 55 57 4% • USA, $304 billion, + 0.6% Russia 22 29 35 41 47 14% • UK, $94 billion, +2.0% India 17 18 21 24 27 10% • Japan, $220 billion, +3.0% China 72 83 115 119 124 4% Total 159 181 223 239 254 Source: Hottelecom  Consumption of basic telecom services will continue rapid growth in BRIC in next 5 years, million users: 2738 1544 1366 +246% 758 553 2014 +77% +80% 2009 2014 160 2009 2014 Source: Business Monitor 2009 Mobile users Internet users Broadband users  BRIC will require huge amount of new international capacity, Gbps: 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total growth from 3.7 to 14.0 Brazil 720 1 017 1 427 1 996 2 754 3 680 China 1 300 1 917 2 806 4 085 5 545 7 269 Tbps or 3.8 times! Russia 402 548 739 986 1 289 1 625 India 162 275 452 692 1 004 1 364 Source: TeleGeography 5

conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 4. Europe - Asia Capacity Market Europe – Asia Capacity by Routes, Gbps  Different options exist to carry global traffic between Europe and Asia, including terrestrial one via Russia (Trans Russia)  Capacity demand between Europe and Asia Europe – Asia Revenue by Routes, will reach 1.5 Tbps or $500 $million million in 2015  Demand on terrestrial Trans-Russian route is estimated to be 400 Gbps or $150 million 6 Source: Yankee Group, TTK

conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 5. Wet & Land Routes Matching  Over 1 billion fiber-km of optical cables installed around the world  Long-distance infrastructure accounts for 30% of total fiber length  Share of submarine cables is less than 5% of total long-distance infrastructure counted in fiber-km Cumulative Global Fiber Deployment,  million km Wet and land routes have to be matched to increase global network performance  Land backbones became also available for global transit as far as telecom markets have been opened for competition 7 Source: KMI Research, CRU

conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 6. Terrestrial Routes Implementation HSCS EuraAsia Highway Transit Capabilities, Gbps 400 Asia 300 CIS Europe 200 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 8

conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 7. Impact of Small Regional Projects Cross-border network capillarity is improving significantly in Asia:  Multiple Russia – China interconnections  Russia – North Korea terrestrial fiber-optic cable  Railcom’s fiber-optic cable across Mongolia  HSCS  Russia – Japan cable  Indo – China cable  China – Taiwan submarine cable Source: TTK, China Telecom, Reliance Globalcom 9

conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 8. Hokkaido – Sakhalin Cable System Hokkaido – Sakhalin Cable System was build by NTT Communications and TTK in 2008:  HSCS provides access to the largest European telecommunication hubs – London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt via Eurasia Highway terrestrial route  Access to fast growing telecom markets of CIS countries: Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Belorussia HSCS  Access to over 1000 PoPs in Russia 10

conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 9.1 Benefits: Diversity & Latency Wet and land route matching creates the new market value - multiple diversity and best latency 11 Source: TTK, NTT Communications, China Telecom, China Unicom, Pacnet

conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 9.2 Benefits: Global Network Security During latest cuts of global submarine cables in January – February 2008, PCCW Global successfully managed risks due diversified network built after Taiwan earthquake in December 2006. The company rapidly re-routed its traffic from the Middle East to Hong Kong and then to Europe through Eurasia Highway land route. Source: PCCW’s Presentation at CAPACITY Middle East & North Africa, Dubai, UAE, February 27-28, 2008 12

conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services 9.3 Benefits: New Challenges  “Web, P2P and streaming traffic Internet Traffic by Applications, account for 78%, the majority of 2009 which is video” – TeleGeography Inc.  Asia and Europe have the worse indexes by average response time – Internet Traffic Report.  Eurasia Highway route has the shortest distance and less Source: TeleGeography Round-Trip Delay that improves performance of global IP networks (London – Hong Kong):  Trans-Russia < 200 ms;  Trans-ME & India ~ 260 ms;  Trans-US > 300 ms. Source: Internet Traffic Report, 25 January 2010 13

conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Conclusions  Submarine and terrestrial global route matching improves network capillarity and gives vast access to global routes for national operators  Regional projects, both wet or land, impact on traffic distribution in global networks  Such small projects will be internationally successful, if they create the new market value for global players: wider diversity, better latency, higher security,… 14

2010 conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services The 7th International Conference & Convention on Undersea Telecommunications Pacifico Convention Plaza Yokohama & InterContinental The Grand Yokohama 11 ~ 14 May 2010 www.suboptic.org