conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Global Trends in Submarine Cable System Faults On behalf of the Submarine Cable Improvement Group Maurice E. Kordahi & Seymour Shapiro Tyco Electronics Subsea Communications Gordon Lucas Alcatel-Lucent Submarine Networks 1 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Submarine Cable Improvement Group (SCIG) • Alcatel-Lucent Submarine Networks • Global Marine Systems Limited • Kokusai Cable Ship Co. LTD • Tyco Electronics Subsea Communications “To develop cost effective approaches and solutions to improve cable reliability and to communicate these to relevant international parties” 2 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Presenter Profile Seymour Shapiro is Vice President, Research & Development, and Chief Technical Officer of SubCom, responsible for forward-looking research work, undersea transmission design, submerged plant and terminal equipment design and engineering. He joined AT&T Bell Laboratories in 1969 and has been involved with undersea fiber optic cable systems for the past 3 decades. Dr. Shapiro was directly responsible for the design of Dr. Shapiro was directly responsible for the design of TE SubCom’s existing family of repeatered and non- Seymour Shapiro repeatered fiber optic cables, as well as the optical fiber developed to optimize system performance. He VP R&D & CTO, SubCom was also responsible for the mechanical design of all Email: sshapiro@subcom.com submerged hardware such as repeaters, couplings, joints, branching units, etc. and holds several Tel: (+1) 732 578 7600 patents in these areas. Mobile Tel: (+1) 732 614 8614 3 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Overview • Data Collection & Motivation - Logging Undersea Cable Faults • External Aggression - Data Binning Adjustment for some Faults • Data Analysis – Presentation of “Raw” or Absolute Data • Normalization • Conclusions 4 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Data Collection & Motivation • Repair data collected for the purpose of system planning, cable routing, cable type selection & cable protection • Faults entered into databases subsequent to repairs • Not all faults around the world are included in every database • Two databases used for this study, TE SubCom & A-L SN 5 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Presentation of Absolute Data Fault categories include: 1. External Aggression, Component, Other 2. External Aggression Faults: Fishing, Anchors, Geological, etc. 3. Distribution of Faults in Different Water Depths: External Aggression, and Fishing 6 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Absolute Data – 2007-2009 TE SubCom & A-L SN All Faults 7 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Bottom Hazards of Significant Influence on Frequency of Undersea Cable Faults 1. Fishing Gear – Trawling, Dredging, Long Line Fishing, Stow Net Fishing, etc. Stow Net Fishing Anchor 2. 2. Anchors – Vessels in Harbor, Anchors – Vessels in Harbor, Vessels Under Way, Danforth, Stockless, etc. 3. Geological – Landslides, Earthquakes, Danforth Anchor Earth Fault Lines, Sinkholes, etc. Earth Drop 8 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Absolute Data – 2007-2009 TE SubCom & A-L SN External Aggression Faults 9 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Automated Identification System (AIS) • AIS was adopted in 2003 as a collision avoidance system • Ships over 300 GRT must broadcast AIS signal continuously • Signal gives ship name and ID, position, course & speed ID, position, course & speed • AIS signals can be received by antennae on ships & on shore • Private companies are marketing AIS data from international networks of antennae 10 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Absolute Data – Combined Fishing & Anchors Faults Consecutive Time Periods • In selected regions, we are now able to better bin failures. • Numerous faults which would have been attributed to Fishing in the past are now entered as Anchors faults. entered as Anchors faults. • Nonetheless, overall fault rate due to human activity is still in the 75% range before and after the use of AIS. • Fishing remains the major cause of human activity faults, at 45% of all External Aggression. 11 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Absolute Data – Depth Distribution of External Aggression for Two Consecutive Time Periods • Difference between 80% 80% the two time periods 70% 70% ion Faults (%) ion Faults (%) TE SubCom Data 07-09 is clear between TE SubCom Data 04-06 60% 60% 100 m and 700 m TE SubCom Data 07-09 water depths. water depths. 50% 50% All External Aggressio All External Aggressio 40% 40% • Deep water (greater 30% 30% than 1000 m) 20% 20% External Aggression 10% 10% faults are still around 15%. 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 1 3 3 5 5 7 7 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Absolute Data – Depth Distribution of Fishing & Anchor Faults for Two Consecutive Time Periods 80% 80% 70% 70% TE SubCom Data 07-09 hor Faults (%) hor Faults (%) TE SubCom Data 04-06 60% 60% TE SubCom Data 07-09 50% 50% Fishing & Ancho Fishing & Ancho 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 0 + + 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 1 3 5 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 7 1 1 13 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Presentation of Normalized Data • A general reference number was computed as the cable faults were divided by the length of cables deployed – Fault Trends covered interval between 2001 and 2009 – Fault rates are expressed as faults per 1000 km’s of cable • Normalized data is provided for: – All faults, in both shallow & deep waters – External aggression faults: fishing, anchors, etc. – Distribution of fishing faults in different water depths 14 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Normalized Data – All faults 2001 to 2009 1. Fault rates had been decreasing for 1 st half of 0.9 decade, but show slight 0.8 increase over the last few 0.7 years. Depth < 1000m r 1000 km 0.6 Depth > 1000m 0.5 0.5 2. 2. Over the past three years: Over the past three years: Faults per 1 0.4 a. 0.2 faults per year per 0.3 1000 km for shallow 0.2 water, and 0.1 b. less than 0.1 faults 0 per year per 1000 km 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 for deep water. 15 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Normalized Data – External Aggression Faults (<1000 m) 1. Average rate over 0.25 Faults per 1000 km Yearly - Depth < 1000m the last 10 years is 3-yr Moving Average 0.20 about 0.1 faults per 3-yr Moving Average Trendline year per 1000 km. 0.15 External Aggression F 2. Rate has leveled off 0.10 at an average of 0.1 0.05 faults per year. 0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 16 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Normalized Data – Fishing Faults 2001 to 2009 (<1000 m) 1. Over the last 0.16 decade the average Yearly - Depth < 1000m 0.14 per 1000 km 3-yr Moving Average is slightly over 0.05 0.12 3-yr Moving Average Trendline faults per year per 0.10 Fishing Faults pe 1000 km. 1000 km. 0.08 0.06 2. Recent trend is 0.04 encouraging. 0.02 0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 17 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Absolute Data – Fishing Faults 2001 to 2009 (> 1000 m) • Absolute number of deep water faults (deeper than 1000 m) per year is slightly less than 2 faults per year than 2 faults per year over the last decade. 18 www.scig.net
conference & convention enabling the next generation of networks & services Conclusions • External aggression continues to be the dominant cause of faults • Anchors “while-ship-under-way” are now a greater percentage as they are being better identified • • Fishing activity remains the largest contributor to faults Fishing activity remains the largest contributor to faults • Most faults occur in less than 200 m water depth • Normalized fault rates show annual external aggression fault trends are holding steady over time 19 www.scig.net
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