Leap ‐ frog (2): Innovative Technologies ‐ CO 2 reduction by passenger car high technology diffusion Scenarios (China) - Without tech. 1,400 diffusion CO 2 emission from passenger car Over 600Mt ‐ CO 2 /year 1,200 ( ‐ 44%) With CCS Without EV 1,000 [Mt ‐ CO 2 /yr] Without CCS 800 With EV 600 With CCS 400 With EV 200 CCS: Carbon Capture & 0 Storage 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 year 41 Yoshi Hayashi, Sep. 2010
Income Growth & Low Birth Rate/Aging Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 42
Proposed Process for Sustainability Studies View on 1. Original Nature and Eco Eco-balance alance DIAGNOSIS Ethics Environment and Human Sustainability indices resource efficiency Activities Monitoring 2.Changes 4. Setting Goals Criteria /Disruptions /Disruptions & Indicators & Benchmarks for Evaluation for Evaluation 5. Alternative Paths 5. Alternative Paths Human /Strategies Activities 3.Conflicts 6. Technologies /Policy Packages / Crises 7. Consensus Implementation 8.New Eco-balance Eco balance PRESCRIPTION Water Transport Energy Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 43 Bio-Diversity
1950 2000 2050 1900 1/1.4 1/2.04 1/2.13 1/1.28 Germany Japan 1/1.48 1/2.14 1/1.04 China 1/1.63 1/2.15 1/1.56 Korea 1/1.24 1/2.55 1/1.20 Singapore 1/1.12 1/2.97 44 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Yoshitsugu 7.0 Hayashi, China Nagoya India University 6.0 Korea, Rep United Kingdom Total birth rate 5.0 United States Viet Nam 4.0 Thailand Japan 3.0 Germany 2.0 Developing Asia Developed countries 1.0 0.0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 GDP per capita [US $]
Growing Small / Smart Shrink Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 46
What do the Changes of Economic, Geographic and Demographic Factors Mean ? Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
48 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University Bangkok
49 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University Hanoi
50 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
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