Impact of China and India on Africa and Impact of China and India on Africa and Latin America Latin America Peter Drysdale The Australian National University Comments for NUS-SCAPE IMF-BANK Seminar NUS, Singapore, 14-15 September 2006
1. The Issues 1. The Issues • impact of China’s and India’s growth: global trade and output shares • differential impact of export growth, competition in manufacturing • imports, rise as energy and resource importers • growth of FDI abroad and its structure • Chinese development assistance • direct and indirect effects through global markets
2. Intensity in China’ ’s Trade with s Trade with 2. Intensity in China Africa and Latin America Africa and Latin America Complementarity, Bias and Intensity for selected years China's Exports to Africa China's Exports to Latin America 1995 1997 2000 2002 2004 1995 1997 2000 2002 2004 C 80 85 87 84 83 C 84 85 92 92 96 B 138 122 155 158 213 B 53 50 53 56 65 I 110 103 135 133 176 I 44 43 49 52 62 Africa's Exports to China Latin America's Exports to China 1995 1997 2000 2002 2004 1995 1997 2000 2002 2004 C 98 102 94 83 91 C 101 99 100 96 105 B 43 32 62 65 47 B 39 45 30 40 46 I 43 32 58 54 43 I 40 45 30 39 48
3. Intensity in India’ ’s Trade with Africa s Trade with Africa 3. Intensity in India and Latin America and Latin America Complementarity, Bias and Intensity for selected years India's Exports to Africa India's Exports to Latin America 1995 1997 2000 2002 2004 1995 1997 2000 2002 2004 C 148 131 131 151 102 C 78 78 81 78 78 B 291 282 321 295 529 B 31 44 50 59 72 I 430 368 421 446 541 I 24 34 40 46 56 Africa's Exports to India Latin America's Exports to India 1995 1997 2000 2002 2004 1995 1997 2000 2002 2004 C 187 221 328 264 243 C 119 106 117 123 122 B 77 99 252 195 172 B 33 28 35 52 37 I 145 219 827 514 417 I 39 29 41 64 45
4. Africa’ ’s Opportunity s Opportunity 4. Africa • parallels with the rise of Japan • reach of resource procurement into Africa • how to capitalise on the lift in the terms of trade? • enduring impact on incomes and growth? • infrastructure for capturing the gains from trade: lessons from history
5. Latin America Defensiveness 5. Latin America Defensiveness • effect on commodity markets • competition from imports • challenge to protectionism in the Americas • benefits through industrial upgrading • Mexico and the case of Guadalajara • way through the political economy?
6. What Policy Choices? Choices? 6. What Policy • in India and China? • in Africa? • in Latin America? • in trade and economic diplomacy? • incomplete architecture for policy dialogue • the G20 and engaging globally
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