UAE-INDIA-AFRICA Commodities Trade Triangle Rabobank Group May 2016
Table of contents Sections I 1 SOUTHERN AFRICA II 8 SOUTHERN AFRICA UAE TRADE III 13 EASTERN AFRICA IV INDIA - UAE TRADE 26 V 41 CONTACT DETAILS 3
Data Sourcing and Reliability This research exercise has utilized a number of sources in collection and verifjcation of data pertaining commodities import and export fmows between economies. Data has, by and large, been verifjed and found to be reliable with minimal variation between authoritative sources except for the case of Angola where data has been patchy and UN Comtrade used as the sole source. The main sources of data for this exercise are: • United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database ( UN Comtrade) - This has been the primary source of data given the interest in commodities trade involving the United Arab Emirates, India and Rabobank Africa economies. The research fjndings provide the top ten commodities traded between the economies as reported in 2014 • Ministry of Commerce and Industry India and Ministry of Economy United Arab Emirates - These have been used for verifjcation of data reported by UN Comtrade • Business Monitor International, World Integrated Trade Solution (World Bank) and OEC Data - These have been used as an additional sound board for the reliability of data reported by aforementioned sources Note: There are instances in which a commodity can be found both in the import and export of a country/region (for example, Mineral Fuels and Oils are both Southern Africa’s top export to and top import from India) . This is attributable to the practice of re-exports between economies in view of value addition. i
Sources: Ministry of Economy and Trade UAE, Ministry of Commerce and Trade India, UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa ii
I SOUTHERN AFRICA
Rabobank Southern Africa: Region at a Glance GDP Size: USD 512.2 Bln Population: 118.8 Mln GDP per Capita: USD 4,311.4 Average Population Growth Rate (Y-o-Y) ‘04 – ’14: 2.1% Average Regional GDP Growth ’09 – ’14: 5.2% Regional GDP by States Population 3.2% 120,000,000 5.3% 115,000,000 23.2% 110,000,000 105,000,000 100,000,000 68.3% 95,000,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 South Africa Angola Zambia Mozambique Sources: Business Monitor International, World Bank, StratLink Africa 2
Rabobank Southern Africa Key Highlights • South Africa - Attractive Outlook for Both India and UAE: South Africa dominates trade between the Southern African region and both UAE and India backed by years of strong bilateral ties and South Africa’s standing as a major trade and commerce hub in Africa. We expect the ties with India to be strengthened further in the coming years following the two economies co-existence in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and China) which seeks to cement co-operation between emerging markets • Zambia - Growing Ties with India Bolters Outlook: Zambia’s trade with India is on the uptick especially from the imports standpoint whereas trade with the UAE is tending towards fmat-lining in both imports and exports. India and Zambia have signed a number of bilateral agreements in the last decade and are bound to remain strategic partners going forward. Zambia’s Ministry of Trade indicated in 2012 that is seeks to increase total trade with India to exceed USD 1.0 Billion from an estimated USD 375.0 Million at the earliest possible. As of 2014, total trade has grown by 17.5% to USD 441.8 Million. Between 2009 and 2014, Zambia posted the fastest growth in imports from India (CAGR) at 25.4% compared to South Africa’s 20.6% and Mozambique’s 6.0% • Mozambique - Attractive Outlook on trade with UAE: Trade between Mozambique and UAE is growing strongly refmecting heightened efgorts in the last decade to boost trade. Reports indicate that Mozambique has urged UAE to use it as the gateway to the Southern African market. Mozambique’s imports from UAE grew by 44.6% between 2009 and 2014, compared to South Africa’s 25.8% and Zambia’s 19.8%. The country’s exports to UAE grew by 69.6% in the same period, outpacing South Africa’s 18.1% and Zambia’s 10.4% Key Development: The India – Africa Summit has grown in prominence as a major global forum that is linking one of the world’s major emerging economies (India) with major frontier markets in the African region. We expect to see strengthened ties, trade and otherwise, in the next decade especially as India looks to countervail the dominance of China in Africa Sources: The Hindu Newspaper, UN Comtrade, gulfnews.com, StratLink Africa 3
Southern Africa Exports To India Angola’s Crude Petroleum Exports to India (USD) Southern Africa Copper Exports to India (USD) 9,000,000,000 300,000,000 7,951,254,612 8,000,000,000 266,217,365 257,667,906 6,729,543,031 7,000,000,000 250,000,000 5,944,948,844 6,000,000,000 188,608,682 200,000,000 5,462,948,213 4,820,640,306 5,000,000,000 150,000,000 4,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 100,000,000 84,820,082 2,000,000,000 50,000,000 1,000,000,000 10,029,607 - 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Note: Angola is the only country in (Rabobank) Southern Africa exporting Notes: Crude Petroleum to India • This refers to Copper (refined and unrefined), Copper Alloys and Copper Anodes • Only Zambia and South Africa export copper to India 4
Southern Africa Exports To India (Cont’d) Southern Africa Lead Exports to India (USD) Southern Africa Aluminum Exports to India (USD) 5,000,000 90,000,000 85,453,096 4,756,322 4,500,000 80,000,000 4,000,000 67,442,028 70,000,000 3,624,311 3,500,000 56,984,058 60,000,000 54,004,718 2,920,577 3,000,000 50,000,000 2,617,556 2,469,421 2,500,000 40,000,000 2,000,000 30,000,000 1,500,000 18,134,905 20,000,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 500,000 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Notes: Notes: • This refers Lead and Lead Alloys (Unwrought) • This refers Aluminum and Aluminum Alloys (Unwrought) • 2010 data includes South Africa, Zambia, Mozambique and Angola; 2011 data • Only South Africa and Angola export the commodity to India includes Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia; 2012 and 2014 data includes Angola, Mozambique and South Africa; 2013 data includes only Mozambique and South Africa 5
India Exports to Southern Africa India’s Sugar Exports to Southern Africa (USD) India’s Fertilizer Exports to Southern Africa (USD) 7,000,000 6,150,649 18,000,000 6,000,000 15,783,447 16,000,000 5,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 4,000,000 10,000,000 Surge a�ributed to massive 3,000,000 imports by Mozambique 8,000,000 that stood at $ 14,687,477 2,043,849 6,000,000 2,000,000 4,000,000 1,000,000 627,906 1,337,246 2,000,000 710,861 597,954 87,223 69,492 26,867 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Notes: Notes: • 2010 , 2011, 2013 and 2014 data includes Mozambique, South Africa and • This refers to Nitrogenous fertilizer Zambia; 2012 data includes Angola, South Africa, Mozambique and Zambia • 2010 data includes Angola, Mozambique and South Africa; 2011 and 2012 data includes Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia; 2013 data has only Mozambique and South Africa whilst 2014 data has only Angola and South Africa 6
Southern Africa Top Exports to India 2013 (USD) Wood Pulp & Fibrous Cellulosic 78 Nuclear Reactors & Boilers 99 Copper 123 Aluminium 128 Precious Metals 141 Pearls & Precious Stones 176 Chemicals (Organic & Inorganic) 230 Ores, Slag & Ash 288 Iron & Steel 420 Mineral Fuels & Oils 7,270 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Millions India Top Exports to Southern Africa 2013 (USD) Pearls & Precious Metals 72 Meat & Edible Meat Offal 109 Iron & Steel 158 Chemicals & Chemical Products 219 Cereals 273 Nuclear Reactors & Boilers 358 Electricals & Electronic Equipment 473 Pharmaceuticals 657 Vehicles (other then rail & tramway) 1,209 Mineral Fuels & Oils 1,800 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Millions Sources: UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa 7
II SOUTHERN AFRICA UAE TRADE
Southern Africa Exports to UAE Zambia Copper Exports to UAE (USD) Southern Africa Aluminium Exports to UAE (USD) 250,000,000 30,000,000 225,498,345 25,669,000 25,000,000 200,000,000 186,074,300 18,620,772 160,373,368 20,000,000 150,000,000 16,705,592 128,673,449 15,000,000 13,109,616 100,000,000 11,156,871 10,000,000 53,135,270 50,000,000 5,000,000 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Notes: Notes: • Only Zambia exports Copper to the UAE • This refers to Aluminum and Aluminum alloys • South Africa is the main exporter 9
UAE Exports to Southern Africa UAE Crude Petroleum Exports to Southern Africa (USD) UAE Fertilizer Exports to Southern Africa (USD) 800,000,000 100,000,000 93,106,028 90,000,000 677,925,933 700,000,000 80,000,000 600,000,000 556,520,608 70,000,000 63,547,905 63,658,423 473,945,650 500,000,000 60,000,000 452,573,441 50,431,563 400,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 300,000,000 256,310,463 30,000,000 200,000,000 20,000,000 14,274,408 100,000,000 10,000,000 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Notes: Notes: • South Africa and Zambia import crude petroleum from the UAE • This refers to Nitrogenous fertilizer • South Africa accounts for over 90.0% of the crude petroleum imports • 2010 and 2011 data has only South Africa and Zambia; 2012, 2013 and 2014 include Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia 10
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