Growth and Transformation What does this mean in the context of NSW - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Growth and Transformation What does this mean in the context of NSW Planning? Presentation to the PIA NSW 2018 State Conference Gary White, Chief Planner Department of Planning and Environment 14.09.18 Department of Planning and Environment

We acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land and pay respects to Elders past, present and future. The Department’s Aboriginal Community Land and Infrastructure Program (ACLIP) team focus on improving planning outcomes for Aboriginal communities. They have partnered with artist Jordan Ardler, who painted the original artwork that inspired the branding throughout this presentation. 2

The force of digital disruption and globalisation is a king-size challenge for planning and one that also demands evolution in planning systems - Jane Nicholls (The Deans, QANTAS 2018) 3

A strategic line of sight ensures planning decisions can be made at the right spatial scale and regional plans inform local strategies 4

Strategic planning should consciously address global trends 5

Global change is increasingly driving local impacts As a practicing planner of 40 years, I have not previously experienced the rate of change now occurring at all scales. Unquestionably, the world is being transformed at a breathtaking pace, fuelled by a highly complex set of megatrends which are deeply changing the way we live. Geopolitical Demographic Technological megatrends megatrends megatrends Environmental Economic megatrends megatrends 6 (Megatrend Watch Institute 2018)

National and State priorities and policies set the context for strategic planning narratives at lower scales 7

At the national level the CSIRO has identified seven megatrends that are / will impact the future. 5. Digital 6. Porous 7. Great 1. More from 2. Planetary 3. The silk 4. Forever immersion boundaries expectations less pushback highway young An increasingly Technology and Rise of the Increasing Protection of Rapid economic An aging technologically globalisation are individual demands for biodiversity and growth and rise population and connected changing global consumer limited the global of the middle changing resources climate class patterns society relationships 8

1. More from less We are consuming more than twice what we can sustain. Current global consumption rates demand 2.7 hectares of productive land per person. There is only around 1.7 hectares per person.

For instance: The Netherlands is the second largest food exporter (by value) in the world The Wageningen For 20 years the Dutch have been working University has partnered with towards the achievement of “twice as much countries all over the food using half as many resources”. world to further agricultural research The Netherlands is now know as the Silicon including Ethiopia, Valley of agriculture as it uses 50% of land for China, Indonesia and food production and leads the world in Brazil. agricultural research. No. 1 No. 2 No. 5 No. 5 No. 5 No. 1 210,065 11,582 17,144 13,036 13,037 80,890 Chillies and Cucumbers Pears Carrots Potatoes Onions Green Peppers Netherlands - out of the top 25 producers by yield 10 In tons per square mile, 2014

For instance: The future of urban agriculture Small-scale urban agriculture has become a popular source for local food production. From local urban farms on The Boston Medical Centre’s rooftop farm produces redundant or undersized land to kale, tomatoes, carrots, eggplants and has recently growing food on the roofs of installed two beehives hospitals – new opportunities are emerging to source fresh local produce and encourage outdoor activities. 11

2. Planetary pushback Australia has the worst mammal extinction rate in the world. This is expected to continue due to changing climate conditions and pressures from urbanisation.

For instance: Melting icecaps open new trade routes across the Arctic 13

Update: The Venta Maersk is now trailing routes across the arctic already. A new ice-class 42,000 tonne ship with a 3600 container capacity that can smash through three feet of ice. 14

3. The silk highway The purchasing power of the worlds middle class is expected to rise 40-50% by 2030. The largest increase comes from the Asian middle class which is expected to rise 8 times by 2030. This new cohort of wealth will look for goods and services in the Asian-Pacific region, particularly those with high quality products and environments like Australia.

For instance: Finnair cargo • Finnair has optimised their passenger airbuses to carry agricultural cargo such as fresh seafood in specially fitted refrigerated cargo holds. • 20 tonnes of fresh seafood can be carried on a single flight. 16

For instance: feeding China China is grappling with a daunting conundrum: How to feed nearly one-fifth of the world’s population with less than one-tenth of it’s farmland. Supplying the nation’s changing diet means heading abroad for potential suppliers, such as Australia and taking advantage of new partnerships with the Dutch The scale of the task: 1. The largest dairy farm in the nation has 36,000 cows highlighting the effort to scale up its agricultural industry 2. 168,000 chickens can be monitored by a single worker through the automation of Chinese egg farms. 17

For instance: Chinese Natural Gas demands • As a result of clean energy commitments Chinese natural gas demands are predicted to increase as much as 25% in 2018 (Reuters 2018). • Already the nation is the largest importer of oil, takes 2/3 of soya beans and seaborne iron ore, is the biggest generator of electricity and consumes half of the worlds coal, aluminium and copper (the national, 2018). 18

Australia has international credibility in established and emerging services The Asian market is growing with Australia as a sought after destination/ supplier in Tertiary Education Tourism Agriculture Piloting 19

4. Forever ageing Nearly one–quarter (22%) of Australia’s population will be over 65 years of age by 2056. This is disrupting housing, employment, tourism and health sectors as they seek to find solutions to the needs of a growing and changing demographic

Australia’s population is now over 25 million and 1 in 10 are over 65 years of age Population change 2001-2017 120 110 100 90 80 Percent change 70 In NSW 60 50 From 25 retirees to every 100 working age of the population in 40 2017 30 20 to 10 0 0 - 4 5 - 9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85 & 34 retirees to every 100 working over Age group (years) age of the population in 2036 Sources: New South Wales Victoria Queensland • ABS, catalogue no. 3101.0 21 • NSW Department of Planning and Environment Population Projections, 2016 • Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, 2016 • Queensland Treasury, 2015

5. Digital immersion More than 26 billion products will be connected to the internet by 2020. Globalisation and technological development is shrinking the world and challenging the notion of who is our neighbour.

For instance: The next doctor you consult could be a robot Britain’s National Health Service is trailing AI technology as a possible replacement for it’s non-emergency triage hotline. The technology collects details of a patient’s symptoms, which it then compares with millions of data points from other patients and research papers to make a diagnosis. The patient is then referred (or not, depending on perceived severity) to a GP via video link.

But will all jobs be automated? The OECD believes 14% of jobs are at risk of being replaced and a further 46% of all jobs will be significantly impacted by automation. While making a coffee is an easily automated task, the ABS reported a 23% increase in the number of people employed in coffee making. The experiential side of our economy offers new opportunities for jobs as people continue to seek opportunities to connect to the physical and human world. 24

6. Porous boundaries ‘Connectography’ – is a termed coined by Parag Khanna to describe how global boundaries are becoming increasingly blurred as physical and web based infrastructure becomes more prevalent and cheaper than ever.

For instance: Re-imagining transportation Autonomous technology goes beyond car- based mobility to autonomous mass public transit and to other transport sectors, such as shipping. For instance, the YARA Birke land will be the world’s first fully electric and autonomous container ship with capacity for 120 TEU (twenty-foot container equivalent units) Due for delivery in 2019 and expected to be fully operational by 2020.

7. Great expectations People are living longer and enjoying a more extravagant lifestyle. There has been a growing expectation by the consumer for a higher quality of goods and services, particularly the fast delivery of goods facilitated by technology.