National Aeronautics and Space Administration IAC-11.E5.2.2 A Structure for Capturing Quantitative Benefits from the Transfer of Space and Aeronautics Technology Doug Comstock & Dan Lockney Innovative Partnerships Office Office of the Chief Technologist NASA Headquarters International Astronautical Congress Cape Town, South Africa October 3-7, 2011 www.nasa.gov IAC-11.E5.2.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration A Structure for Capturing Quantitative Benefits from the Transfer of Space and Aeronautics Technology
NASA Technology Transfer A primary objective noted in the 2011 NASA Strategic Plan: to “drive advances in science, technology, and exploration to enhance knowledge, education, innovation, economic vitality, and stewardship of Earth” The 1958 Aeronautics and Space Act that created NASA mandated that the Agency transfer its technologies “for the benefit of all mankind” In addition to enabling missions to the stars, NASA R&D produces ancillary benefits to the government, economy, and general public that are visible in our everyday lives, from the grocery store to the hospital IAC-11.E5.2.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration A Structure for Capturing Quantitative Benefits from the Transfer of Space and Aeronautics Technology
The Spinoff Publication Since 1976, NASA has generated anecdotal evidence of benefits using its annual Spinoff publication – Serves as a tool to educate the media and general public about the benefits of NASA research – Fulfills the reporting requirement outlined in the1958 Space Act – Positive results of tech transfer resonate with public, demonstrating tangible benefits from the Nation’s investment in space and aeronautics IAC-11.E5.2.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration A Structure for Capturing Quantitative Benefits from the Transfer of Space and Aeronautics Technology
With over 1,750 recorded NASA spinoffs, NASA technologies influence our lives in a variety of ways—making us safer, healthier, and more efficient. Information Technology Consumer Goods Transportation Spinoffs have occurred in every Environmental Public Safety sector Resources Industrial Productivity Health and Medicine IAC-11.E5.2.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration A Structure for Capturing Quantitative Benefits from the Transfer of Space and Aeronautics Technology
Prior Studies of NASA’s Economic Benefit Many attempts have been made to examine the economic benefits of NASA technologies – Studies have indicated discounted rates of return from 33% to 43% and include ratios from a 7 to 23.4 multiplier effect – Each study has independent value, but there is no consistent, coherent, standardized analytic framework for characterizing benefits – Benefits are often characterized anecdotally For consistent, coherent, sustainable data collection, a common set of analytic categories must be developed, and reporting standardized IAC-11.E5.2.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration A Structure for Capturing Quantitative Benefits from the Transfer of Space and Aeronautics Technology
Significant NASA Tech Transfer Studies Study Methodology Quantitative Findings Limitations • Small data set • Cryogenics: $1B • Not sustainable • Integrated Circuits: $5B • Dated Case studies of four major NASA • Gas Turbines: $111M Mathematica, 1976 • Restricted to revenue technology categories • NASTRAN: $701M generation • Forward-looking projections of (all estimated benefits) future benefit • $2.13B NASA contributions to • Examination of 259 published sales • Data set restricted to NASA Spinoff articles • $315.7M NASA contributions to Spinoff companies Chapman Research Group, 1989 • Telephone interviews and cost savings • Restricted to revenue from sales inquiries • 325,000 jobs created/saved and cost savings • $365M in tax receipts • Examination of 353 published • Data set restricted to NASA Spinoff articles • $32B NASA contribution to sales Spinoff companies • Telephone interviews and Chapman Research Group, 1993 • $1B NASA contribution to cost • Not repeated inquiries savings • Restricted to revenue generated • Continuation of 1989 Chapman and cost savings Report • Surveys • Small dataset, restricted to 15 • Telephone Interviews and program-specific technologies Over $1.5B in value added to 15 Hertzfeld, 1997 inquiries • Difficulty collecting data, survey NASA life sciences partner firms • Literature review responses • Case studies • Not repeated IAC-11.E5.2.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration A Structure for Capturing Quantitative Benefits from the Transfer of Space and Aeronautics Technology
Additional Relevant Studies Study Methodology Quantitative Findings Limitations • Average 7:1 rate of economic return on each dollar invested in NASA Limited to ratios of R&D expenses Midwest Research Institute, 1971 Macroeconomic projections • Discounted rate of return on to national economic gains NASA investments of approximately 33% • Average 7:1 rate of economic Focused solely on economic return on each dollar invested in Chase Econometric Associates, forecasting and projections using Simulations and modeling NASA 1976 theoretical increases and • Historical rate of return from decreases in NASA funding NASA R&D spending of 43% • Average 9:1 rate of economic return on each dollar invested in NASA Limited to ratios of R&D expenses Macroeconomic projections Midwest Research Institute, 1988 • Discounted rate of return on to national economic gains NASA investments ranging between 19 and 35% • Estimated 380,000 NASA- • Restricted to job growth generated jobs by 1997 The WEFA Group, 1994 Economic modeling • Restricted to human spaceflight • $153.5B in GDP generated by and ISS NASA-related activity by 2000 IAC-11.E5.2.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration A Structure for Capturing Quantitative Benefits from the Transfer of Space and Aeronautics Technology
Common Conclusions NASA R&D yields tangible and economic benefit in addition to the meeting of mission goals NASA should develop a sustainable approach to gathering this information IAC-11.E5.2.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration A Structure for Capturing Quantitative Benefits from the Transfer of Space and Aeronautics Technology
Historical Quantification Efforts 1994 1997 1989 1993 1976 1988 1971 Investment ratio 7:1 380k 9:1 Revenue Investment Jobs ratio Value $21B $1.5B $7B $32B Revenue Added Impressive results from these individual efforts, but – Inconsistent assumptions and measures – Irregular occurrence – Not sustainable – Difficult to aggregate IAC-11.E5.2.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration A Structure for Capturing Quantitative Benefits from the Transfer of Space and Aeronautics Technology
Establishing Standardized Quantification Categories 187 Spinoff articles from 2007–2010 were examined, leading to the initial identification of five categories of benefit: – Jobs Created (number of jobs) – Revenue Generated (dollars) – Productivity and Efficiency Improvements (dollars) – Lives Saved/Not Lost (number of individuals) – Lives Improved (number of individuals) To assess the efficacy of the quantification categories, a thorough examination of the 187 Spinoff articles was conducted The five categories were confirmed as providing good capture of representative benefits across a wide range of Spinoff stories IAC-11.E5.2.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration A Structure for Capturing Quantitative Benefits from the Transfer of Space and Aeronautics Technology
Spinoff Analysis Results Spinoff articles from 2007–2010 were analyzed to indentify the percentage that would be expected to have quantitative benefits in each of several different candidate quantification categories A majority of the articles examined were expected to show quantitative benefits in multiple categories IAC-11.E5.2.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration A Structure for Capturing Quantitative Benefits from the Transfer of Space and Aeronautics Technology
Spinoff Analysis Results While the availability of published data in these quantification categories is low, the aggregate benefit numbers they represent is impressive. Productivity Increased Lives Saved/Not Jobs Created and Efficiency Lives Improved Revenue Lost Improvements 1,665 $532M $4.13B 695 30M Percentage of 4% 5% 2% 1% 2% Companies IAC-11.E5.2.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration A Structure for Capturing Quantitative Benefits from the Transfer of Space and Aeronautics Technology
Structured Collection of Quantitative Benefits 2014 2016….. 2011 2012 2013 2015 2011 Structured Data ~50 ~50 ~50 ~50 ~50 ~50 Initial Collection Process will new new new new new new cases Retrospective cases cases cases cases cases Data Collection yield: Spinoff Spinoff Spinoff Spinoff Spinoff Spinoff ~250 cases – Standardized measures Spinoff – Consistent assumptions – Traceable data Standardized Quantification Measures – Sustainable through Accumulated • Jobs Created (people) annual Spinoff process Aggregate • Revenue Generated ($) Benefits • Productivity & Efficiency ($) – Easy to aggregate over • Lives Saved (people) time • Lies Improved (people) IAC-11.E5.2.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration A Structure for Capturing Quantitative Benefits from 13 the Transfer of Space and Aeronautics Technology
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