HUMAN AND SOCIAL HUMAN AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT HUMAN AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT HSRC, Pretoria. HSRC, Pretoria. HSRC, Pretoria 13 June 2012 13 June 2012 13 June 2012 The Youth Bulge and the future of South The Youth Bulge and the Future of South Africa Africa Presentation by Monde Makiwane, PhD Monde Makiwane, PhD
Content Content • Introduction • History • Statistics • Youth Bulge, the Challenge • Pictures Indicating tensions and the Need to Act Social science that makes a difference
Introduction Introduction • The importance of Demographic transition to the future of South Africa. • Conflicts and demographic transitions • Development prospects in the context of the youth bulge. • Youth Bulge in South Africa curse or a blessing?: An Asian economic miracle or an Arab spring? Social science that makes a difference
Historical Picture Depicting Youth Historical Picture Depicting Youth Struggle Struggle Social science that makes a difference
Size and Distribution • Youth in 15-24 estimated at 10.1m • Africans 83.7% • Indians 7.9% • Coloureds 2.2% • Whites 6.2% Social science that makes a difference
The Changing Structure of the World The Changing Structure of the World Population Population Source: United Nations Population Division (2011). Social science that makes a difference
Fig. 1 . The size of the youth population (millions) 1960-2009 10.1 9.1 7.4 5.7 4.2 3.1 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009 Year Social science that makes a difference
Household Residence • 59% of 15-19 group live with biological parents • 50.2%of 20-24 group live with biological parents • 2.9% of teens are heads • 11.5% of youth between 20-24 are heads Social science that makes a difference
Youth Bulge 2007 1960 80 + 80 + 75-79 70-74 70-74 65-69 60-64 60-64 Male Female 55-59 p 50-54 50-54 u p 45-49 o u r o r g 40-44 g 40-44 e e g A 35-39 g 30-34 A 30-34 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 10-14 10-14 0-4 5-9 0-4 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 % of the population % of the population Social science that makes a difference
Youth Bulge by Population Group Youth Bulge by Population Group Social science that makes a difference
Social science that makes a difference
Dependency Burden Dependency Burden Ratio ___________________________________________ All* Children** Old age*** __________________________________________________________________ 1960 81 74 7 1970 84 77 6 1980 81 75 6 1990 73 67 6 2000 56 49 6 2009 54 47 7 _________________________________________________________________ * (pop 0-14 + pop 65+)/pop15-64*100 ** (pop 0-14)/pop15-64*100 *** ( pop 65+)/pop15-64*100 Social science that makes a difference
Social science that makes a difference
Population Projection 2007-2050 Population Projection 2007-2050 2007 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 Social science that makes a difference
Age Structure Age Structure Social science that makes a difference
Age Distribution of Migrants Age Distribution of Migrants & Non-Migrants, 2007 in the Eastern Cape & Non-Migrants, 2007 in the Eastern Cape Social science that makes a difference
Youths Demand Right to Decent Life Youths Demand Right to Decent Life (Employment) (Employment) Social science that makes a difference
Youth Protest a Sign of Tension Youth Protest a Sign of Tension Social science that makes a difference
Arab Uprising, Any Lesson to Learn? Arab Uprising, Any Lesson to Learn? Social science that makes a difference
Conclusion Conclusion • Youth bulge: the biggest challenge in South Africa • Likely to take longer than in other parts of the world • Will it spell anarchy or prosperity for South Africa? • Must we wait for “ geriatric peace”? Social science that makes a difference
Social science that makes a difference
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