HOUSING NEEDS San Miguel County ASSESSMENT August 20 th , 2018 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

HOUSING NEEDS San Miguel County ASSESSMENT August 20 th , 2018 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. T h e E c o n o m i c s o f L a n d U s e

EPS EPS HOUSING POLICY REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS LOCAL RESOURCE ALLOCATION LAND USE PLANNING MARKET ANALYSIS FISCAL & ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS PARKS & OPEN SPACE ECONOMICS

RRC RRC SURVEY AND QUALITATIVE RESEARCH MODELLING AND APPLIED ANALYSIS PUBLIC POLICY CITY AND TOWN PLANNING HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE IN RESORT AND MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES

ABOUT US KEY STAFF ANDRE REW KNUDTSEN SEN TIM MORZEL SARAH AH DUNMIRE RE CHRIS CARES ES DAVID D BECH CHER ER MANAGING DIR./FOUNDER DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH MANAGING PRINCIPAL VICE PRESIDENT RESEARCH ANALYST RRC RRC EPS EPS EPS EPS EPS EPS Andrew draws from 20 years Chris is a founding partner of David has diverse experience Tim has a broad base of Sarah has experience RRC Associates and specializes of experience addressing experience in land use conducting detailed managing and conducting in practical applications of community housing needs, economics, planning, and real analysis relating to many types of market research techniques to solve evaluating local resource estate development. He brings a economic and research and planning allocation, and leveraging problems in city planning, diverse skill set for solving demographic research. projects for public and private market trends to identify administration, and business sector clients in his more complex problems related to a applications. emerging opportunities and variety of land use issues. than two decades at RRC. address existing deficits. Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 3

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS WORKING GROUP Shirley ey Diaz – San Miguel Regional Housing Authority  Ross s Herzog zog and L Lance e McDonald d – Town of Telluride  Lynn Black – San Miguel County  Kim M Montgo tgomer ery and M Michel elle e Haynes es – Town of Mountain Village  Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 4

STUDY OVERVIEW SAN MIGUEL HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT Builds s on a and updates es past effor orts ts Compare past milestones with trend analysis  Economic – Demographic – Survey data – Understanding of where we are now relative to the Great Recession – Build on regional housing needs assessments that have been completed in  2000, 2008, and 2011 Provide a projection of need  Inform current decisions  Provide parameters for next steps  Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 5

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW KEY SECTIONS E&D / S Survey vey Overvi view ew Housi sing g Needs s and Gaps 1. Employment and Demographics 7. What has changed since 2011? 2. Existing Housing Inventory 8. What does the future look like? 3. Housing Costs 4. Household Survey Summary 5. Commuting Overview 6. Employer Survey Summary Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 6

STUDY AREA SAN MIGUEL COUNTY Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 7

STUDY AREA TELLURIDE REGION Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 8

ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW SAN MIGUEL COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT

CURRENT POPULATION SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2017 (DOLA) San Miguel el County = 8 8,266 Telluride 2,621 Mountain Village 1,451 Norwood 580 Ophir 200 Sawpit 45 Unincorporated Area 3,369 Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 10

POPULATION TRENDS SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 1980-2016 (DOLA) 1980-2016 – 134 people or 2.6% per year  2010-2016 – 107 people or 1.4% per year  10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: DOLA; Economic & Planning Systems Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 11

POPULATION FORECAST SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2016-2030 (EPS/DOLA) DOLA Forecast – 2.7% per year, 2030 Pop. = 11,742  EPS Forecast – 1.3% per year, 2030 Pop. = 9,804  DOLA Forecast Historic EPS Forecast 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: DOLA; Economic & Planning Systems Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 12

EMPLOYMENT SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2005-2017 (QCEW) Employment 8,000 7,381 7,266 7,149 7,129 7,042 6,844 6,746 7,000 6,574 6,502 6,502 6,398 6,380 6,366 6,377 6,337 6,320 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: DOLA; BLS; Economic & Planning Systems Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 13

TOTAL EMPLOYMENT INDEX SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2005-2018 Employment Index San Miguel County Colorado 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: BLS; Economic & Planning Systems Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 14

CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT INDEX SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2005-2018 Employment Index San Miguel County Colorado 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: BLS; Economic & Planning Systems Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 15

GUEST ORIENTED EMPLOYMENT INDEX SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2005-2018 Employment Index San Miguel County Colorado 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: BLS; Economic & Planning Systems Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 16

LOCAL ORIENTED EMPLOYMENT INDEX SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2005-2018 Employment Index San Miguel County Colorado 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: BLS; Economic & Planning Systems Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 17

LARGEST EMPLOYMENT SECTORS SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2016 Accommodation and Food Services 1,287 Public Administration 829 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 814 Construction 686 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 677 Other Services, except Public Administration 577 Retail Trade 532 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 471 Admin and Support and Waste Mgmt and Rem Srvcs 349 Health Care and Social Assistance 284 Manufacturing 169 Educational Services 154 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 118 Finance and Insurance 112 Information 67 Transportation and Warehousing 48 Wholesale Trade 43 Management of Companies and Enterprises 8 Utilities 7 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 18

CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2011-2016 Avg. Wage (2016) $24,258 Accommodation and Food Services 262 $23,335 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 206 $23,712 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 123 $33,878 Admin and Support and Waste Mgmt and Rem Srvcs 85 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services $73,866 69 $22,380 Health Care and Social Assistance 62 $37,999 Other Services, except Public Administration 61 $42,588 Manufacturing 58 Retail Trade 58 $31,603 Educational Services 40 $20,787 $71,994 Finance and Insurance 23 Wholesale Trade 10 $51,779 Management of Companies and Enterprises 8 $68,809 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 5 N/A Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 N/A Utilities -2 $41,405 Transportation and Warehousing -4 $24,228 Public Administration -4 $36,374 Information -29 $17,440 Construction -122 $26,163 $49,160 Average Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 19

EMPLOYMENT FORECAST SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 2016-2030 (EPS/DOLA) DOLA Forecast – 2.7% per year, 2030 Emp. = 10,703  EPS Forecast – 1.0% per year, 2030 Emp. = 8,352  DOLA Forecast EPS Forecast Historic 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Source: DOLA; Economic & Planning Systems Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 20

HOUSING INVENTORY SAN MIGUEL COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT

RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, 1990-2016 (U.S. CENSUS) Units Building Permits 1990-2016 Avg. 2010-2016 Avg. 400 353 350 300 220 250 213 192 178 169 200 163 156 152 145 142 137 134 129 125 1990-2016 Avg., 122 150 114 114 100 96 100 2010-2016 Avg., 32 47 44 36 35 32 28 50 25 22 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Economic & Planning Systems Economic & Planning Systems San Miguel County Housing Needs Assessment | 22