Loudoun County Affordable Housing Needs & Initiatives Presentation to The Northern Virginia Building Industry Association June 14, 2018 6/19/2018
Demographics Housing Needs Assessment 2015 - 2040 Purpose of the Housing Needs Assessment Why did HNA Purpose: Assess Current and Future Housing Needs Assumptions: 1. Local and regional employment growth will drive the majority of housing demand in Loudoun County in the future. 2. Commuting patterns into and out of Loudoun County will not change over the forecast period (2015 to 2040). 3. Housing preferences based on key household characteristics will not change. 6/19/2018 2
Demographics 4% 5% 4% Living alone (>65) 13% 8% Current Mix Living alone (<65) Married Couple with Children Married Couple without children 25% Single Parent 41% Other Family without children Other Non-family HNA Forecast to 2040: Majority of HH growth related to Net New Jobs Growth in Older Adult HHs will increase at the fastest rate Largest increase in 35 to 44 headed HHs (Aging Millennials) Increasing Racial & Ethnic Diversity Large Family Market/Larger HH sizes 6/19/2018 3
What is Area Median Income? Area Median Income for 2018 = $117,200* Identified in the Revised General Plan, Article 7 of the Zoning Ordinance, and Chapter 1450 of the Codified Ordinance Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Statistical Area includes Loudoun and other jurisdictions in the Region. Used to Determine Income Eligibility in County, State, and Federal Housing Programs. *Based on a 4-person household. For more details, visit www.loudoun.gov/ami 6/19/2018 4
AMI Distribution 8% Current Distribution 10% >100% >70% to 100% 11% 55% >50% to 70% 45% >30% to 50% 16% 0% to 30% HNA Forecast to 2040: Need Grows All Along the Income Continuum Significant Increase in High Income HHs (150% AMI) Fastest Growth in HHs at 50% to 60% AMI 6/19/2018 5
Housing Affordability* Income as % of AMI Purchase Power Affordability AMI (3x income) (Income divided by 12 x 30%) 100% $ 117,200 $351,600 $2930 90% 105,480 316,440 2637 Buyers 80% 93,760 281,280 2344 70% 82,040 246,120 2051 60% 70,320 210,960 1758 50% 58,600 175,800 1465 40% 46,880 140,640 1172 Renters 30% 35,160 105,480 879 20% 23,440 70,320 586 10% 11,720 35,160 293 *Income multiplied by 3 serves as a general standard for determining purchase power to buy a home. 30% of monthly income for housing and utilities is the general standard for determining affordability. 6/19/2018 6
County Industries and Average Pay Industry Number of Average % AMI Sector Employees Annual Pay VEC: 12/17 Government 24,694 $59,280 50% Professional, Scientific 20,120 $110,396 94% and Technical Services Retail Trade 18,412 $29,952 26% Accommodation and 16,398 $23,972 20% Food Service Construction 15,707 $76,128 65% Healthcare & Social 12,300 $56,264 48% Assistance (includes Hospital) Transportation & 10,658 $47,216 40% Warehousing (includes Airport) HNA Forecast to 2040: Job Growth Driven by Professional/Business Sector 6/19/2018
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Housing Affordability Current Distribution HNA Forecast to 2040: Slight Decline in Overall Cost Burden Increase for Low and Moderate Income HHs (<80% AMI) (including Older Adults & Renters) 6/19/2018 9
Current Housing Needs Greatest Need among Low and Moderate Income Renters Unmet Need for 11,200 Rental Units • 75% for HHs with incomes below 60% AMI Unmet Need for 3,400 Home Ownership Opportunities • 1,400 for HHs with incomes below 100% AMI 6/19/2018 10
HNA Forecasted Demand Forecasted Housing Demand Total SFD SFA MF Existing 127,076 67,500 39,390 20,199 Net New +66,604 33,620 22,060 10,911 TOTAL 193,680 101,120 61,450 31,110 Comparison of Current Land Use Plan to HNA Forecast Total SFD SFA MF HNA 193,680 101,120 61,450 31,110 Forecast RGP 175,380 82,030 50,070 43,280 Forecast Difference (18,300) (19,090) (11,380) 12,170 6/19/2018 11
Housing Needs Assessment Conclusions Increasing Demand Across the Housing Continuum for: • Low-cost, small unit rental housing for young Millennial/Entry level workers over next 10 years • Smaller, more modestly-priced housing for Aging Millennials with families • Accessible housing & communities for Aging Resident Baby Boomers and Persons with Disabilities • Multi-generational housing • Affordable housing for low and moderate income Full report available at: households www.loudoun.gov/housing • Single-family housing for high-income, large families. Growing Housing Affordability Challenges are expected to occur through 2040 6/19/2018 12
Housing Challenges • Insufficient Supply (Rising Prices/Growing Need) • Preservation of Affordable Market Housing • Affordable Dwelling Units Hitting Covenant Term • Strategy to Capture a Share of Pipeline & New Units • Prompting Affordable Housing Development • Planning for Growth 6/19/2018 13
Planning For Growth • Update to Land Use Plan • Addressing Growth Opportunities & Housing Demand • Draft Plan to PC in August 6/19/2018 14
Housing Policy Highlights The Housing Market cannot meet all areas of housing need. Residents and workers should be served by a range of housing opportunities. Housing diversity is important to the health of the community. Address “continuum of need” without labels. Unmet housing needs are defined as housing for incomes ranging from 0% to 100% AMI. Programs are required to address the housing needs of residents and workers priced out of the housing market. 6/19/2018 15
County Policy Approach Unmet Housing Needs Continuum Approaching Greatest Home Renter Market Rate Need Ownership 0% to 30% 30% - 70% 100% + Area Median Income Area Median Income Area Median Income Requires different approach/resources at each level. There is no one size fits all. 6/19/2018 16
Current Housing Initiatives Board of Supervisors Convened Housing Summit: • 21 Speakers including Non-profits, Affordable Housing Developers, Employers, Experts from the Region • County Departments (Planning, Family Services, Mental Health, and Economic Development) Joined Together to Present Impacts of Lack of Affordable Housing • “Housing P rimer” Published • Directed Staff to: • Comprehensive Review of Zoning Ordinance to Remove Barriers to Affordable Housing (In progress) • Inventory Public Land as Opportunity for Projects (TLUC 6/19) • Establish Revolving Loan Fund (FGOEDC 6/12) • EDAC Ad Hoc Housing Committee Established to Identify Solutions • Multiple Topic-Specific Focus Groups Convened by DFS 6/19/2018 17
Current Housing Initiatives Recent Amendments to the Affordable Dwelling Unit Program to provide financing flexibility & capture multi-family units in the pipeline as affordable units. Recent Amendment to the Housing Trust to provide better access to funding & support Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) projects. Establishment of Affordable Multi-family Housing Loan Program To Date: • $6.56 Million in Loans • 3 LIHTC Projects • 320 affordable apartments 6/19/2018 18
Forecasted New Housing Units by Type 2015 Fiscal Impact Committee, Intermediate Scenario New Housing Units 18,000 16,000 14,000 MF 12,000 SFA SFD 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2015 Fiscal Impact Committee Guidelines
Current Housing Initiatives Revisions to Article 7/Chapter 1450 (ADU Ordinances) ADUAB Recommendations (6/12) include: • Adjust Income Range to 0% to 70% to use funds for LIHTC projects • Apply to projects proposing 20 units or more • Remove density requirement (1 dwelling unit per 40,000 square feet) • Remove exemption of R1, CR1, TR1, JLMA1 • Adjust timing of delivery • Simplify Buy-out formula Next Steps: • July TLUC • Board of Supervisors Intent to Amend • Planning Commission Review & Recommendation • Board of Supervisors Review & Adoption 6/19/2018 20
Affordable Dwelling Unit Sales 2005 - 2017 Affordable Dwelling Unit (ADU) Sales 2005-2017 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ADU New Sales and Resales to Certificate Holders 223 148 172 144 88 62 91 122 239 219 168 127 173 (Includes County Owned Since 2014) ADU New Sales and Resales Sold at Market 43 15 5 22 37 33 25 101 70 48 6 0 2 6/19/2018 21
Affordable Dwelling Unit Covenant Expirations by Year ADU 15-Year Covenant Expirations by Year # of Units Expiring # of Covenant Expired Resales 222 198 193 185 158 144 143 143 127 113 104 103 101 99 95 70 61 49 33 32 23 20 21 17 13 7 2 1 1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 6/19/2018 22
Other Housing Initiatives • Board of Supervisors Approved 3 Housing Positions in FY 2019 Budget • Successful Application for VASH Vouchers to help Veterans • Revitalization Area Designation to support LIHTC Applications • Revised Agreement to Increase ADUs in Leesburg • Comprehensive Review of Zoning Ordinance to remove barriers 6/19/2018 23
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