Vermont Housing Needs Assessment 2014
Housing Needs Assessment Primary Work Elements Analyzed more than 100 demographic & economic metrics • Conducted 90 community stakeholder interviews • Surveyed 403 multifamily rental properties (12,012 units) • Surveyed 284 non-conventional rentals • Evaluated 243 mobile home parks with 7,162 Lots • Analyzed for-sale data on 30,252 units (8,691 listed/21,561 sold) • Surveyed 73 Senior Care Facilities (Residential Care, Nursing Home, & • Assisted Living) Completed a housing needs/gap analysis by tenure & affordability • Made more than 400 contacts with individuals & organizations • Over 600 housing properties were visited and rated • Provided recommendations to address housing needs •
Geographic Study Areas Analysis Conducted on a Statewide Basis with Individual County Comparisons • Statewide Analysis • County Chapter Analysis • Fact Sheets (both Statewide & County)
Demographic Highlights Population Trends Vermont & US Population Trends Vermont is projected to add 4.0% 3.5% 9,700 (1.6%) people b/w 3.7% P e r c e n t C h a n g e 3.0% 3.2% 2.5% 2010-15, and 7,040 (1.1%) Vermont 2.0% US 1.5% b/w 2015-20; Below U.S. 1.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.5% average changes 0.0% 2010-2015 2015-2020 Year Vermont & US Household Trends Vermont is projected to add 4.0% 3.8% 6,060 (2.4%) households 3.5% 3.5% P e rc e nt C ha nge 3.0% b/w 2010-15, and 4,768 2.5% Vermont 2.4% 2.0% US (1.8%) b/w 2015-20; Less 1.8% 1.5% 1.0% than U.S. average changes 0.5% 0.0% 2010-2015 2015-2020 Year
Demographic Highlights County Population Trends Pop. Growth 2015-2020 10 counties are projected to grow, 1. Chittenden (4,659, 2.9%) while 4 will decline; Chittenden County’s 4,659 projected growth 2. Franklin (1,182, 2.4%) represents two-thirds of entire 3. Lamoille (910, 3.6%) state’s growth. 4. Addison (374, 1.0%) Vermont County/State Population Change (2015-2020) Addison Pop. Decline 2015-2020 4.0% Bennington Caledonia 3.5% 3.6% 1. Rutland (-527, 0.9%) Chittenden 3.0% Essex 2.9% 2.5% Franklin 2. Windham (-293, 0.7%) Percent Change 2.4% Grand Isle 2.0% Lamoille 3. Windsor (-141, 0.2%) 1.5% Orange 1.0% Orleans 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 4. Grand Isle (-13, 0.2%) Rutland 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Washington 0.0% Windham -0.7% -0.2% -0.2% -0.5% Windsor -0.9% Vermont -1.0%
Demographic Highlights Population Trends Between 2015-2020, greatest population increase will be among ages 65-74 (14,245, 22.4%); Largest 2020 share (16.1%) among 55-64 age group. County level growth will be most rapid among ages 65-74 in Chittenden, Rutland, Washington, Windham & Windsor. Vermont Population by Age (2015-2020) 2015 2020 30.0% 29.9% 28.7% 25.0% 20.0% Share 15.0% 16.1% 15.6% 14.7% 13.1% 12.1% 11.5% 10.0% 11.4% 11.6% 11.2% 10.0% 7.3% 6.9% 5.0% 0.0% <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+ Age Range
Demographic Highlights Number of People Age 55+ by County (2015) 2015 County Senior Population 1. Chittenden 43,073 2. Rutland 22,095 3. Windsor 21,493 4. Washington 19,789 5. Windham 16,118 6. Franklin 14,034 7. Bennington 13,926 8. Addison 12,158 9. Caledonia 10,793 10. Orange 10,323
Demographic Highlights Households by Tenure Renter Owner Vermont renter households Households Households are projected to grow 1.7%, 2015 75,784 186,718 while owner households will grow 1.9%. These are slower 2020 77,051 190,219 than U.S. averages of 4.4% Change 1,267 3,501 and 3.5%. % Change 1.7% 1.9% Vermont Households by Tenure (2010-2020) Tenure Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied Share of homeowners will remain above 70% in 2015 70.0% 71.2% 71.1% 70.7% and 2020, above the U.S. 60.0% 50.0% average (63%). The owner Share 40.0% share in Vermont is 30.0% projected to remain during 29.3% 28.9% 28.8% 20.0% this time. 10.0% 0.0% 2010 2015 2020 Year
Demographic Highlights County Household Trends Greatest Projected HH % Greatest Projected HH # Growth 2015-2020 Growth 2015-2020 1.Lamoille (4.3%) 1.Chittenden (2,375) 2.Chittenden (3.7%) 2.Franklin (615) 3.Franklin (2.3%) 3.Lamoille (441) 4.Addison (2.0%) 4.Addison (291) Vermont County/State Household Trends (2015-2020) Addison 4.5% Bennington Caledonia 4.3% 4.0% Chittenden 3.5% 3.7% Essex 3.0% 3.2% Franklin Percent Change Grand Isle 2.5% Lamoille 2.0% Orange 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 1.7% Orleans 1.3% Rutland 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% Washington 0.5% 0.7% Windham 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% Windsor -0.1% Vermont -0.5%
Demographic Highlights Renter Household Shares by County 2015 County Renter Household Shares 1. Chittenden (34.4%) 2. Windham (31.2%) 3. Rutland (29.7%) 4. Washington (29.6%) 5. Lamoille (28.6%) 6. Bennington (28.3%) 7. Windsor (27.4%) 8. Caledonia (26.2%) 9. Franklin ( 24.8%)
Demographic Highlights Households by Age (Number) HH Growth 2015-2020 Between 2015-2020, greatest increase in the number of household will be among ages 65-74 Ages 65 to 74 (8,339, 26.5%) and 55-64 (4,837, 9.0%). 1. Chittenden (1,735, 22.3%) Greatest decline in the number of households by 2. Washington (869, 23.0%) age will be among ages 45-54 (5,747, 9.9%). 3. Rutland (788, 18.1%) Households are aging in place, moving from one age segment to another. 4. Windham (650, 20.5%) 5. Franklin (608, 20.4%) Vermont Households by Age (2015-2020) 2015 2020 60,000 Ages 55 to 64 55,000 50,000 45,000 1. Chittenden (1,085, 8.4%) Households 40,000 35,000 30,000 2. Franklin (286, 6.9%) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+ Age
Demographic Highlights Households by Age (Shares) Largest 2015 household share (22.3%) among 55-64 age group. This age group will increase to 22.6% of all households by 2020. Households b/w ages 65-74 will overtake those b/w 45-54 as 2 nd largest share by 2020. Households between ages 45-54 will experience the greatest decline in share of households, decreasing from 19.9% (2015) to 17.4% (2020). Vermont Households by Age (2015-2020) 2015 2020 25.0% 22.6% 22.3% 20.0% 19.9% 18.0% 17.4% 15.0% Share 14.9% 15.1% 14.1% 12.7% 12.7% 11.6% 10.0% 11.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.7% 0.0% <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+ Age Range
Demographic Highlights Household Sizes Vermont Persons per Renter Household (2015-2020) • One-persons 2015 2020 households will 45.0% comprise the largest 44.9% 44.1% 40.0% 35.0% share of renter HHs 30.0% Share 28.6% 25.0% 28.3% • One-person HHs will 20.0% 15.0% increase by 1,170 b/w 13.8% 13.7% 10.0% 8.4% 5.0% 8.2% 2015 and 2020 5.2% 5.0% 0.0% 1-Person 2-Persons 3-Persons 4-Persons 5-Persons Household Size Vermont Persons per Owner Household (2015-2020) 2015 2020 • Two-person households 45.0% 40.0% 41.1% will comprise the largest 40.8% 35.0% share of owner HHs 30.0% Share 25.0% 23.5% 20.0% 22.9% • One-person HHs will 15.0% 16.3% 16.3% 13.2% increase by 2,029 b/w 10.0% 13.0% 5.0% 6.5% 6.3% 2015 and 2020 0.0% 1-Person 2-Persons 3-Persons 4-Persons 5-Persons Household Size
Demographic Highlights Household Incomes Vermont Household Income by Tenure (2015) Renter Households Owner Households 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% Share 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% <$10,000 $10,000 - $20,000 - $30,000 - $40,000 - $50,000 - $60,000 - $100,000+ $19,999 $29,999 $39,999 $49,999 $59,999 $99,999 Household Income Largest share (19.1%) of renter households make b/w $10k-$20k Largest share (27.9%) of owner households make b/w $60k-$100k $40,000 Highest median incomes in the northwest portion of state
Demographic Highlights Household Income Growth by Tenure Renter Households by Income – Vermont $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 <$10,000 – – – – – – $100,000+ $19,999 $29,999 $39,999 $49,999 $59,999 $99,999 Total Change -17 -71 -214 -121 196 -7 627 877 1,267 % Change -0.2% -0.5% -1.8% -1.2% 2.7% -0.1% 5.8% 17.8% 1.7% Owner Households by Income – Vermont $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 <$10,000 – – – – – – $100,000+ $19,999 $29,999 $39,999 $49,999 $59,999 $99,999 Total Change 106 -91 213 156 -32 -340 -132 3,622 3,501 % Change 1.4% -0.6% 1.3% 0.9% -0.2% -2.0% -0.2% 8.7% 1.9% Source: ESRI, HISTA and Bowen National Research
Demographic Highlights Population Living in Poverty Notable Poverty Rates: • 11.1% of the state, 69,575 people • 13.7% or 1 in 7 children (< age 18) • 8.0% or 1 in 12 seniors (age 65+) • Highest county rates: Essex 16.9% & Orleans 14.3%; Northeast quadrant Vermont County/State Income Below Poverty Level Addison 18.0% Bennington Caledonia 16.9% 16.0% Chittenden 14.0% Essex 14.3% Percent of Population 13.4% Franklin 12.0% 12.0% 11.8% Grand Isle 11.3% 11.1% 11.1% 10.8% 10.9% 10.0% 10.5% 10.4% Lamoille 10.1% 9.7% Orange 8.0% Orleans 6.0% 6.4% Rutland Washington 4.0% Windham 2.0% Windsor Vermont 0.0%
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