General labour market picture in New Zealand Paul Callister - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

General labour market picture in New Zealand Paul Callister Institute of Policy Studies, School of Government, Victoria University 1 of Wellington

Background  Much of the debate about welfare reforms focuses on sole mothers.  But that is only one part of the story – its important to consider what has been happening to males.  But to know what is happening to men requires an understanding of changes in the labour market  Changes in labour markets then flow through to families and children 2

% employed 100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 1956.1 Long term employment rates of men and 1958.3 1961.1 women, March 1956 to June 2010 1963.3 1966.1 1968.3 1971.1 1973.3 1976.1 1978.3 1981.1 1983.3 1986.1 1988.3 1991.1 1993.3 1996.1 1998.3 2001.1 2003.3 2006.1 2008.3 Total Female Male 3

% employed 100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 1956.1 Long term employment rates of men and 1958.3 1961.1 women, March 1956 to June 2010 1963.3 1966.1 1968.3 1971.1 1973.3 1976.1 1978.3 1981.1 1983.3 1986.1 1988.3 1991.1 1993.3 1996.1 1998.3 2001.1 2003.3 2006.1 2008.3 Total Female Male 4

Unemployment rate, June years 1987 to 2010 12 10 2001 census 2006 census 8 2008 HLFS 6 4 2 0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 5

Harmonised unemployment rate Spain Slovak Republic Ireland Turkey Greece Portugal Hungary France Poland United States Sweden Chile Italy OECD - Total Finland Belgium United Kingdom Canada Czech Republic Iceland Germany New Zealand Denmark Mexico Luxembourg Japan Australia Switzerland Netherlands Austria Norway Korea 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

Unemployment rates for those 15-34 30.0 25.0 20.0 2009.2 2009.3 15.0 2009.4 2010.1 10.0 2010.2 5.0 0.0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

100.0 120.0 140.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 0.0 2001.2 'Under-employment' - Number (000's) of part time workers wanting more 2001.4 2002.2 2002.4 2003.2 2003.4 2004.2 2004.4 hours 2005.2 2005.4 2006.2 2006.4 2007.2 2007.4 2008.2 2008.4 2009.2 2009.4 2010.2 8

Thinking about changes in employment Routine Production In-Person Services Symbolic-analytic Mobility of operation Most manufacturing Generally not internationally Highly mobile, but question of internationally mobile mobile, except in terms of whether it needs to be attached tourism where the consumer is to some geographic cluster mobile Mobility of labour in these Generally immigration laws Some parts mobile Highly mobile industries limit mobility How earnings are set In global marketplace By internal economy, including In global marketplace minimum wage legislation Relative earnings Low Low if economy is in poor Potentially high shape, high if economy is strong, strong labour law and tight migration laws exist Level of education required Basic formal education, on job Mix of basic and high skill High skill training Types of occupations Factory process worker, data Waiter, bank teller, bus driver, Designer, engineer, sociologist, entry operator hairdresser doctors Types of industries Car assembly, steel production Retail banking, restaurants, Research Institutes, law firms, hotels hospitals

Long term changes in New Zealand employment  Occupations: strong growth in managerial and professional jobs but also various types of service worker – major job losses for machine operators, tradespeople, labourers and agriculture workers  Industries: major job losses in primary and manufacturing sectors – growth in many service industries, including health and education – others, like construction, have major fluctuations 10

 Migration policies have protected low skill workers and Australia has been a ‘pressure cooker valve’ for New Zealand  While there has been a shift to high skill jobs, many low skill/low pay jobs continue to exist – but, for a variety of reasons, hard to fill by New Zealand workers – eg kiwifruit picking  New Zealand losses many of its younger prime working aged people overseas  New Zealand increasingly depends on migrants in key areas of the economy, eg doctors  Work related migration is shifting from permanent to temporary 11

 Some of the jobs that have been lost required few formal qualifications but had been relatively well paid – examples include meat workers, forestry workers, tradespeople, and watersiders  Males no longer have a monopoly on many occupations  Many people work long hours, but many other part time workers want longer hours  The transition from school to full time work takes longer  More people are working at older ages 12

Some selected 'male' jobs, 1981 to 2006 90,000 80,000 70,000 Food Processing Machine 60,000 Operators Numbers 50,000 Metal and Machinery Trades Workers 40,000 Market Oriented Animal Producers 30,000 Forestry and Related Workers 20,000 10,000 0 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 13

Number of social workers, male and female, 1981 to 2006 14,000 12,000 10,000 Numbers 8,000 Males 6,000 Females 4,000 2,000 0 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 14

Employment rates of men aged 30-44, 1976 to 2006 15

Number of people in the main work transition age groups, 1991 to 2010 and projections to 2016 400,000 2003 2008 2010 2010-2016 350,000 300,000 250,000 15 – 19 Numbers 20 – 24 200,000 25 – 29 150,000 60 – 64 65 – 69 100,000 50,000 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change in number of jobs between June 2003 and June 2008, thousands of jobs Manufacturing Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Mining Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Information Media and Telecommunications Wholesale Trade Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Public Administration and Safety Government Not Specified Transport, Postal and Warehousing Arts, Recreation and Other Services Financial and Insurance Services Education and Training Government Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade and Accommodation Construction Professional, Scientific, Technical, Administrative … Male Female -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Change in number of jobs June 2008 to June 2010, thousands of jobs Manufacturing Retail trade and accommodation Females Males Total Transport, postal, and warehousing Financial and insurance services Not specified Electricity, gas, water Arts, recreation, and other services Rental, hiring, and real estate services Professional, scientific, technical, … Construction Agriculture, forestry, and fishing Mining Information media and telecommunications Wholesale trade Education and training Public administration and safety Health care and social assistance -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0

Employment rates males, June 1990 to March 2010 100 15-19 90 20-24 80 25-29 70 30-34 60 35-39 50 % 40 40-44 30 45-49 20 50-54 10 55-59 0 60-64 Jun 90 Jun 91 Jun 92 Jun 93 Jun 94 Jun 95 Jun 96 Jun 97 Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 65+

Employment rates males in transition ages, June 1990 to March 2010 2008 2010 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 25-29 60.0 20-24 50.0 % 40.0 15-19 30.0 60-64 20.0 65+ 10.0 0.0 Jun 90 Jun 91 Jun 92 Jun 93 Jun 94 Jun 95 Jun 96 Jun 97 Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09

Employment rates for males 30-44 in each education category, March 1986 to March 2010 100 90 80 70 60 50 % No qualifications School 40 Post school 30 20 10 0 Dec 89 Dec 94 Dec 99 Dec 04 Dec 09 Mar 86 Jun 87 Sep 88 Mar 91 Jun 92 Sep 93 Mar 96 Jun 97 Sep 98 Mar 01 Jun 02 Sep 03 Mar 06 Jun 07 Sep 08 21

CHANGES IN LIVING ARRANGEMENTS FOR MEN AND WOMEN AGED 30-44

Percentage of men aged 30-44 who were partnered, 1986-2006 23

Employment and living arrangements of men aged 30-44, 1986 and 2006 80 The ‘traditional’ family 70 60 50 Not employed Not employed Not employed 40 30 1986 20 2006 10 0 Employed, Not Employed, Employed, Not Employed, Not Not living with employed, not living living with employed, not living employed, employed, partner, with living with with partner, partner, no not living with partner, living with not living dependent partner, with with dependent with partner, no partner, no with partner, children dependent dependent children with dependent dependent no children children dependent children children dependent children children 24

Employment and living arrangements of men and women aged 30-44, 2006 80 70 Living alone 60 50 Sole parents 40 30 Female 20 Male 10 0 Employed, Not Employed, Employed, Not Employed, Not Not living with employed, not living living with employed, not living employed, employed, partner, with living with with partner, partner, no not living with partner, living with not living dependent partner, with with dependent with partner, no partner, no with partner, children dependent dependent children with dependent dependent no children children dependent children children dependent children children 25