Climate studies in India & expectations from AIM: Research topics and future collaboration P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Presented at 15th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, February 20-22, 2010 Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Agenda New Scenarios Development 1. Component Models (& Integration) 2. Model Applications 3. Policy Assessment 4. Research Cooperation 5. Dissemination 6. Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
New Scenarios Development Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Alternate Development Perspectives Drivers Drivers Interventions Interventions Target Target Aim Aim Allocation of Rights Allocation of Rights Carbon Market Carbon Market Universal Participation Universal Participation Conventional Climate Market Structure/ Rules Market Structure/ Rules Centric Paradigm Global Global Remove Market Barriers Remove Market Barriers Stabilization Stabilization Greenhouse Gas Greenhouse Gas at Minimum at Minimum Technologies Technologies Cooperative R&D Cooperative R&D Concentration Concentration GDP Loss GDP Loss Stabilization Stabilization Tech Transfer Tech Transfer Competition/ Trade Competition/ Trade Energy Resources Energy Resources Energy-Mix Mandates Energy-Mix Mandates Modify Preferences Modify Preferences Forecasting Forecasting Drivers Drivers Drivers Drivers Drivers Drivers Drivers Drivers Interventions Interventions Interventions Interventions Interventions Interventions Interventions Interventions Targets Targets Targets Targets Targets Targets Targets Targets Aim Aim Aim Aim Aim Aim Aim Aim Technological Technological Technological Technological Technological Technological Technological Technological National National National National National National National National Innovations Innovations Innovations Innovations Innovations Innovations Innovations Innovations Social/Institutional Social/Institutional Social/Institutional Social/Institutional Social/Institutional Social/Institutional Social/Institutional Social/Institutional Socio-economic Socio-economic Socio-economic Socio-economic Socio-economic Socio-economic Socio-economic Socio-economic Objectives Objectives Objectives Objectives Objectives Objectives Objectives Objectives Management Management Management Management Management Management Management Management and Targets and Targets and Targets and Targets and Targets and Targets and Targets and Targets Sustainable Development Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Aligning Markets Aligning Markets Aligning Markets Aligning Markets Aligning Markets Aligning Markets Aligning Markets Aligning Markets and Climate Paradigm Carbon Carbon Carbon Carbon Carbon Carbon Carbon Carbon Co - benefits Co-benefits Co-benefits Co-benefits Co - benefits Co-benefits Co-benefits Co-benefits Win/Win Options Win/Win Options Win/Win Options Win/Win Options Win/Win Options Win/Win Options Win/Win Options Win/Win Options Society Society Society Society Society Society Society Society Shared Costs/Risks Shared Costs/Risks Shared Costs/Risks Shared Costs/Risks Shared Costs/Risks Shared Costs/Risks Shared Costs/Risks Shared Costs/Risks Global Global Global Global Global Global Global Global Climate Change Climate Change Climate Change Climate Change Climate Change Climate Change Climate Change Climate Change Long -term Vision Long -term Vision Long -term Vision Long -term Vision Long -term Vision Long -term Vision Long -term Vision Long -term Vision Objectives Objectives Objectives Objectives Objectives Objectives Objectives Objectives and Targets and Targets and Targets and Targets and Targets and Targets and Targets and Targets Avoid Lock -ins Avoid Lock -ins Avoid Lock -ins Avoid Lock -ins Avoid Lock -ins Avoid Lock -ins Avoid Lock -ins Avoid Lock -ins Sustainability Sustainability Sustainability Sustainability Sustainability Sustainability Sustainability Sustainability Modify Preferences Modify Preferences Modify Preferences Modify Preferences Modify Preferences Modify Preferences Modify Preferences Modify Preferences Back-casting Back-casting Back-casting Back-casting Back-casting Back-casting Back-casting Back-casting Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
LCS Scenarios with Sustainability • Focus on: – Mainstreaming climate actions in development plans/policies/processes – Behavioral Changes, Innovations, Co-benefits and Co-operation – Up-front decisions to avoid long-term lock-ins • Sustaining Capital Stocks – Natural, Man-made, Human & Social • Use Systems Approach for Analysis – Integration, Holistic/Long-term Vision, Dynamic Assessment • Interventions to influence Drivers of Change – Assess and influence Processes – Institutions (to reduce transaction costs/risks and to sustain change) • Shaping Stakeholder and Societal Preferences – Information, Awareness, Debates to arrived at informed choices Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios Stabilization Scenarios Scenarios with Global Targets Baseline Conventional Sustainability Paradigm O C Δ t 4 to 6 O C Δ t 3 to 5 Stabilization Radiative Forcing Targets 4.5 2.6 4.5 2.6 8.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 Target W/m2 O C Δ t 3 O C Δ t 2 Geography Level Global Global Regional National Local Global Global Regional National Local Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Local Scenario Development (ExSS ) (1) Setting Framework (2) Description of socio- (4) Collection of low carbon economic assumptions measures (3) Quantification of socio- (5) Setting introduction of economic assumptions measures in target year (6) Estimation of GHG emissions in the target year (7) Confirming measures set and suggestion of policy recommendations Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Scenarios: Research Cooperation 1. IPCC New Scenarios Process 2. Asia Modeling Forum 3. LCS Asia Project 4. Indian National Scenario Exercises 5. City Level Scenarios 6. Sector Scenarios 7. Scenario Database Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Component Models (& Integration) Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Integrated Modeling Framework Integrated Modeling Framework Integrated Modelling Framework DATABASES DATABASES DATABASES Socio - -Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constrai nts Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment AIM CGE AIM CGE Model AIM Strategic Database AIM Strategic Database AIM End Use Demand End Use Demand ( Strategic Database ) End Use Demand - MARKAL ANSWER-MARKAL ANSWER AIM (SDB) Model Model Model Model (SDB) (SDB) Model AIM ExSS AIM SNAPSHOT Model AIM SNAPSHOT Model Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
AIM CGE Model Input from environment Feedback from environment Intermediate demand Production sector Pollution, pressure, preservation Value added Output Environment Production factor Produced goods market market Endowment Final demand Pollution, pressure, preservation Final demand sector Input from environment Feedback from environment Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Extended Snapshot Tool • Commuting OD • Labor participation ratio • Export • Government expenditure • Demographic composition • Import ratio • Labor productivity Number of • Average number of family occupants workers Labor Module Labor demand Average Wage Income Macro-economy and Population and Household working time Industry Module Number Module Private Time-use and Population consumption Output Consumption Module Number of • Breakdown of household consumption • Population distribution • Floor area per Commercial Transport • Trip per parson output Module • Transport distance Building Module • Modal share Floor area of Passenger and freight commercial buildings transport demand Energy demand Energy Demand & GHG GHG emissions Emissions Module • Energy service demand generation unit Main endogenous Exogenous variables Module • Energy efficiency and parameters variables • Fuel share • Emission factor Flow of endogenous variables Input Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Models Development & Training 1. Global Integrated Assessment Model 2. Regional Integrated Assessment Model 3. Local Mitigation Models 4. Sector Mitigation Models 5. Impact & Adaptation Data & Models 6. Climate Data Monitoring & Modeling Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Model Applications: • Geography Global, Regional, National, Local (City) • Sector Transport, Power, Industries, Residential, Agriculture Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Global & National Analysis: GCAM & AIM/CGE Base Case Scenario: INDIA INDIA: Carbon Emissions 6000 Unconventional oil 5000 Renewable 4000 Nuclear Mtoe 3000 Coal 2000 1000 Gas Oil 0 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 GDP Loss for India 8 450 ppmv (2 deg C) 7 6 550 ppmv (3 deg C) BaU 5 % 4 3 2 1 0 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
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