See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324661297 Executive Development Lecture Series - Leadership Scenarios. Updated 2018 (Presentation Slides) Article in SSRN Electronic Journal · January 2018 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3129670 CITATIONS READS 0 32 2 authors , including: Tom Cockburn The Leadership Alliance Inc 452 PUBLICATIONS 164 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Academic development for faculty, View project Academic development for faculty,2007-2009 View project All content following this page was uploaded by Tom Cockburn on 26 April 2018. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.
Executive Development Leadership Scenarios updated 2018 MBA Programme Facilitators: Professor David McKie and Dr Tom Cockburn Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3129670
Leadership & scenarios Kouzes and Posner (1997) see the future as ‘the domain of leaders’ (p. xxv) but it is everyone’s business and central to all levels of organising through: 1. Conscious routing of conversation in time 2. Exploring scenarios to avoid linear projections of business as usual 3. Preparing emotionally and practically for uncertainty and dynamic complexity David McKie and Tom Cockburn 2 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3129670
Leadership is domain of the future (1) Routing in time: Three domains Past = Domain of description Necessary but minimise and direct forward in time Present = Domain of action Say why you’re here; what you are doing Future = Domain of possibility and surprise What might lie ahead
Leadership is domain of the future (2) Explore new possibilities ‘What if . . .’ Crowdsource input: Ask as many people as possible, Listen to what they say… then ask again in a different way to get specific answers as in Smith & Cockburn (2016)* If you had an extra $1 million how would you change your section? What would you do with an extra $50K
Relating to the future After what ifs State new ‘informed’ personal possibility: ‘I think it’s possible to . . .’ ‘I believe we can . . .’ Check support for consensus and joint commitment: ‘We will become leaders in . . .’ ‘This organisation is capable of . . .’
Looking ahead In Leadership for the 21 st Century Rost (1993) characterises the 20 th industrial leadership paradigm as: rationalistic, technocratic, linear, quantitative, and scientific in language and methodology Scenarios allow for less linear, less positivistic, and more creative future projections through images, options, and emergent narratives of dynamic possibilities
Doing the Kahn can: A brief history of scenarios Types of future narrative Associated with Herman Kahn: Founder- director of a freewheeling think tank called the Hudson Institute Designed in story form to assist people in creatively pushing through mental blocks to consider ‘unthinkable’ futures
Scenarios (2) One aim to reduce uncertainty and surprise E.g. Fall of Berlin Wall & World Trade Center bombing seemed improbable and 9/11 unthinkable Kahn’s trademark slogan was ‘thinking the unthinkable’ One of his examples was nuclear war (as, he argued, a clearheaded way of avoiding it).
Scenarios (3) Term scenario from screenwriter Leo Rosten after watching scenario-planning by physicists Rosten adapted Hollywood usage where a scenario is an outline of a future movie Kahn liked this association with the fictional and playful rather than with more narrowly predictive forecasts.
Scenarios (4) Kahn’s willingness to hypothesise without censorship led to spectacular misses (artificial moons to light large areas of the earth at night) And telling hits (personal computers and superconductivity). He gained fame as the first guru to alert US leaders about the need to watch Japan.
Scenarios (5) — activity 1 Small group exercise: Groundwork for generating a scenario 1) Work out the 3 key questions you’d like answered about the year 2030 2) Work out the 3 key questions you’d like answered about telecommunications in the year 2030 3) Work out who you´d ask these questions
Scenarios help us: 1) Understand the basic themes and central ideas of diverse topics 2) Abandon narrow, linear thinking and adopt wider perspectives 3) Develop alternative ways of interpreting the present 4) See beyond the current range of vision 5) Can add surprise or disruptive factors
Scenarios may help us: 5) Connect seemingly unrelated developments through narratives 6) Build more imaginative and integrated frameworks 7) Engage with uncertainty in a comprehensive, practical and systematic fashion 8) Acknowledge emotional investments and sustain ongoing strategic conversations
Can scenarios cope with environmental complexity? Snowden framework, 2012 Can scenarios be enhanced by applying the Snowden framework in parallel as the scenarios are being developed?
Global scenarios for 2030 1) Market world: Economic reform and technological innovation fuel rapid growth Developing regions are integrated into the global economy Global market brings modern techniques and products to virtually all countries. Result is widespread prosperity, peace and stability…but not without a ´shadow side´ such as widening gap between rich and poor though this is often neglected
Global scenarios 2) Fortress world: Pessimistic vision based on failure of market-led growth to address social wrongs, rising inequality and environmental crises Believes unconstrained markets and new leaders will exacerbate these problems Sees accelerating destruction of environmental and social fabric on which growth depends Predicts enclaves of prosperity coexisting with widening misery and desperation
Global scenarios 3) Transformed world: Visionary future of radical social and political change (incl. values and cultural norms). Sees power more widely shared and grass roots influence rise in new style of governance in business and society Believes new arrangements will improve society in terms of social & political equality, happiness and wellbeing as well as better protecting the environment
Back to the future: South African scenarios in 2004 1) Ostrich: Government does not face realities 2) Lame Duck: Protracted transition like bird with a broken wing unable to take off properly 3) Icarus: Popular elected govt. tries to achieve too much too quickly and burns in global economic sun 4) Flight of the Flamingoes: Take off slowly, fly high, & fly together
Scenario alignments from Canada Four government roundtable scenarios: 1) Starship Enterprise; 2) Titanic; 3) HMS Bounty; and 4) Windjammer See ‘How to build scenarios’ at: www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html
New Zealand Foresight Scenarios: 1) Possum in the Glare New Zealand is caught like a possum in the glare of the oncoming future. But possums are hardy creatures, and New Zealand muddles along by: a) finding new markets for traditional agricultural products b) combating falling prices with new production technologies. . . .
2) Shark Roaming Alone After economic difficulty, New Zealand has adapted quickly to keep up with the changes of the early 21st Century. Rapid uptake of new technology and the Internet, and the success of the entrepreneurial approach, have made us a highly individualised society of sharks. . . .
3) Nga Kahikatea: Reaching New Heights World interest in NZ’s social change over the first decade of the 21st Century. What marks New Zealand out from other countries is a strong and widely shared sense of purpose a national intent. A nation of kahikatea, standing together.
Exercise Compare and contrast the scenarios for South Africa, Canada and New Zealand. In 2017 how accurate the scenarios for each country? What are the surprise factors e.g. Trump election in US? Jacob Zuma still leading S. Africa? Pregnant PM of NZ? Trudeau as global statesman leading a weak economy? Impact of Brexit on UK and EU ? Syrian war and ISIS? Refugees and migration?
Your futures How is your organisation prepared for different futures? How is the VUCA environment tackled? Is the Snowden framework useful for generating scenarios? What imagery would you use to describe your company’s scenarios?
References Cockburn, T and Smith P.A.C. (2018). Vuca and the Power of Emergence Teams, in D.Dalcher (Ed.), The Evolution of Project Management Practice , Routledge: UK. Smith, P & Cockburn, T. (2016). Developing and Leading Emergence Tea ms, Routledge, UK Smith, P and Cockburn, T. (Eds.) (2014). Impact of Emerging Digital Technologies on Leadership in Global Business, PA, USA: IGI Global Smith, P and Cockburn, T (2013) Dynamic Leadership Models for Global Business: Enhancing Digitally Connected Environments , PA, USA: IGI Global View publication stats View publication stats
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