Establishing and Understanding Post-2020 Climate Change Mitigation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Establishing and Understanding Post-2020 Climate Change Mitigation Commitments Gregory Briner, OECD gregory.briner@oecd.org Based on the paper “Establishing and Understanding Post -2020 Climate Change Mitigation Commitments” by Gregory Briner and Andrew Prag CCXG side event Friday 15 November 2013 Climate Change Expert Group http://oe.cd/ccxg

Outline  Status of the negotiations  The 2020 pledges and multiple dimensions of mitigation commitments  Concept of bounded flexibility for commitments  Information needed ex- ante to understand commitments Climate Change Expert Group 2

UNFCCC signed Bali Action Plan agreed Stockholm Conference, Brundtland Report Kyoto Protocol signed Climate Change Expert Group

Tracking the global carbon budget Climate Change Expert Group Source: IPCC (2013)

A snapshot of the 2020 pledges China China China China Note: Bubble sizes are proportional to Note: Bubble sizes are proportional to Note: Bubble sizes are proportional to Note: Bubble sizes are proportional to Note: Bubble sizes are proportional to population in 2010. population in 2010. population in 2010. population in 2010. population in 2010. India India India India Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 Annual GHG emissions in 2010 excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2 -eq) Annual GHG emissions in 2010 excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2 -eq) Annual GHG emissions in 2010 excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2 -eq) Annual GHG emissions in 2010 excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2 -eq) Annual GHG emissions in 2010 excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2 -eq) Brazil Brazil Brazil Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Australia Australia Australia Australia Australia Iran US US US US US Absolute cap Absolute cap Absolute cap Absolute cap Absolute cap Saudi Arabia Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan No pledge No pledge No pledge No pledge No pledge Thailand 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 Intensity goal Intensity goal Intensity goal Intensity goal Germany Germany Germany Germany Germany Intensity goal Intensity goal Intensity goal Intensity goal Intensity goal South Africa South Africa South Africa Mexico Mexico Mexico Ethiopia Ethiopia Absolute cap Absolute cap Absolute cap Absolute cap Absolute cap Reduction from BAU Reduction from BAU Reduction from BAU Republic of Korea Republic of Korea Republic of Korea BAU goal BAU goal BAU goal BAU goal BAU goal Tanzania Tanzania Spain Spain Spain Spain Spain Carbon neutrality Carbon neutrality Turkey Carbon neutrality Carbon neutrality Carbon neutrality Carbon neutrality Carbon neutrality 100 100 100 100 100 Poland Poland Poland Poland Poland Myanmar Other goal Other goal Other goal Other goal Other goal Other goal Other goal Morocco Morocco Togo Togo No pledge 10 10 10 10 10 Eritrea Eritrea Costa Rica Costa Rica 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 10 10 10 10 100 100 100 100 100 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 Climate Change Expert Group GDP in 2010 (billion 2005 USD, PPP) GDP in 2010 (billion 2005 USD, PPP) GDP in 2010 (billion 2005 USD, PPP) GDP in 2010 (billion 2005 USD, PPP) GDP in 2010 (billion 2005 USD, PPP) 4 4 Sources: UNFCCC (2011b; 2013b); IEA (2012); UNDESA (2011). Sources: UNFCCC (2011b; 2013b); IEA (2012); UNDESA (2011). Sources: UNFCCC (2011b; 2013b); IEA (2012); UNDESA (2011). Sources: UNFCCC (2011b; 2013b); IEA (2012); UNDESA (2011). Sources: UNFCCC (2011b; 2013b); IEA (2012); UNDESA (2011).

Source: Educade.org A spectrum of commitments? Climate Change Expert Group 5

Mitigation commitments can have multiple dimensions Headline number Coverage of Choice of time sectors frame Choice of GWPs Approach to LULUCF accounting (if covered) Coverage of gases Climate Change Expert Group 6

“Bounded flexibility” for some dimensions? • Time frame? • GWP values? Climate Change Expert Group 7 Source: HDNaturePictures.com

Ex-ante clarity of commitments Absolute cap Reduction from BAU Other goal Intensity goal Carbon neutrality Time frame Base year GWPs or other GHG-equivalence metric Coverage of gases and sectors LULUCF accounting Units from market mechanisms BAU emissions (i.e. without action) Expected future emissions (i.e. with action) GDP projections Definition of carbon neutrality Conditions attached Explanation of ambition (science, equity) Source of finance and domestic policies Climate Change Expert Group 8

Agreement of any 2015 bounded agreement flexibility for commitments and ex-ante information to be provided Discussions on ex-post accounting rules for measuring progress towards commitments Submission of draft commitments Consultations on draft commitments Possible further Clarification and ratcheting-up of mitigation ratcheting-up of commitments after draft commitments 2015 2015 2013 2014 2020

In Conclusion….. UNFCCC Climate Change Expert Group

Thank you! http://oe.cd/ccxg Climate Change Expert Group http://oe.cd/ccxg