ERP Horizon Scanning Project 1
Watersheds.
FUTURE FACTS = 0
Integrated Foresight Why explore possible futures?
Audience - Big Year for Energy Planning • DECC and Government Departments – Dec 2015: Committee on Climate Change 5 th Carbon Budget 2028 - 2032 – Q1&2 2016: Development of Carbon Plan (Normative trajectory around 80% cuts to 2050 on 1990) • Outputs / Participation - HMG - DECC Strategy, Science and Technology and Policy Teams - UK Energy Sector more broadly. 5
Stated Project Aim ` identify what the main uncertainties that will impact international and UK energy sector development which might need to be considered over a number of timeframes.’ 6
Stated Objectives 1 • Harvest a number of points of view from different sectors; • What are their underlying rationale for looking at those issues; • Organise the information; and • Then relay it to the energy community with a particular focus to the energy policy audience. 7
Outputs and Impact • A cataloguing of the underlying assumptions: why; impacts - 3 x Tiers; • A list of technology game changers - in traded and non-traded emissions sectors; • Path dependencies, timing of trends and when those trends need to be accounted for; and • So what? The implications as to what the UK should do regarding these issues. 8
Workshops Thought leaders requested at one of two exclusive day long workshops on either 30 th November or 7 th December between 0930 to 1700 at The Royal Academy of Engineering, 3 Carlton House Terrace, London. 9
Follow up work • A living document; • Changes Slide Decks and Summary paper for each event; • Scenarios will be generated from the key issues picked up in the horizon scanning exercise; • Energy, Policy and Financial Modelling may be undertaken • Overarching Final Report with accompanying slide deck targeted at policy makers and industry. 10
Hopes Fears Extrapolation Imagination
CHANGE EVOLVES IN OVERLAPPING WAVES & TURBULENCE THREE HORIZONS FRAMEWORK MANAGER ENTREPRENEUR VISIONARY Eg, MUSIC, Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES – MOVIES, Eg., MUSIC, MOVIES – paradigm buster - CDs, transformational disruptor - Napster DVDs iTunes
Other work: UKERC Meta Study on Energy Scenarios • Diversity is important • Scenarios not just wrong, but outside modelled boundaries • Developments considered too unlikely did materialise • Scenarios mirrored biggest concerns of the time, but the most important were not always captured – especially true of institutional, political and governance elements • Actual pathways more challenging than ‘least - cost’ models suggest • Quantification is too precise – false impression of accuracy and certainty • Failure should be ‘allowed’ • Think the unthinkable 16
ERP Members Input • Clarification of the outputs so that useful inputs into other energy futures work; and • Dissemination of the horizon scanning survey. 17
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