Energy applications offer growth potential for tin Technical - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Energy applications offer growth potential for tin Technical Session: Specialty minerals and metals for energy storage Tuesday 8 March 2016 Peter Kettle, Jeremy Pearce & Tom Mulqueen - ITRI Ltd

Presentation agenda  Overview of tin applications: growth trends and the key markets today  Current and future role in energy storage, generation and conservation o Lead-acid and advanced batteries o Solar power & thermoelectric materials o Hydrogen and clean fuels  New sources for new applications o Supply problems for current producers o Known and unknown future resources o Investment urgently needed

World tin consumption from 1900 ’000tpy 350 Post-war 300 reconstruction to oil crisis 250 200 Cans and cars 150 China, electronics & lead-free solders 100 50 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005

Estimated world refined tin use, 2014 Solders - electronic 2.0% 7.0% 43.5% 5.2% Solders - industrial 7.3% Chemicals Tinplate Lead-Acid Batteries 14.7% Brass & Bronze Float glass 15.5% 4.8% Other

Global tin use by industry sector Consumer electronics Transport Solder - electronic Packaging Solder - industrial Tinplate Construction Chemicals Industrial Brass & Bronze equipment Float Glass Other Others 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

R&D of tin energy uses is booming 8,000 tin R&D publications per year Energy uses the major theme

Broad potential in tin energy technologies Storage Lead-acid Calcium tin grids, tin sulphate electrolyte Lithium ion Tin nanoneedles, Silicon + tin anodes , tin electrolyte Magnesium ion Antimony or bismuth tin alloy anodes Sodium ion Tin sulphide / carbon anodes Supercapacitors Manganese + iron tin oxide anodes Aluminium Air Tin alloy addition, tin stannate electrolyte Fuel Cells Tin phosphate membrane , molten tin, tin platinum catalyst, tinned copper mesh Generation Copper Zinc Tin Sulphide (CZTS), Tin perovskite Solar cells Solar storage Molten Tin Tin Selenide, Magnesium Stannide Thermoelectric Hydrogen Methane to hydrogen Molten tin Water splitting Tin oxide, tin sulphide photocatalysts Clean Fuel Biodiesel catalysts Iron Tin oxide Fuel catalysts Tin antimony alloys

Performance continues to improve across multiple battery types Source: Atsushi Tsutsumi, Tokyo University

Tin use in lead acid batteries High end VRLA Antimony free Tin solder Calcium-Tin Tin sulphate Tin additions improve performance

High-end lead acid battery uses favour tin Start-Stop vehicles Regenerative braking Only tin batteries have high performance

Now the fourth largest tin use Tin in China Lead-Acid Batteries Type Tin Use Million units Total Tin Use per KVhr Starter 52.1g 100 5,200 Motive 59g 90 5,310 Industrial 35.5g 37.5 1,330 11,840 tpa Jian, Z. (2015), “Outlook for Tin Application in Lead - Acid Batteries”, 2015 ITRI China International Tin Forum , pp. 140 – 156. Global consumption ~26,000 tpa and rising

Lead acid battery markets are booming

Tin use in lithium-ion batteries Possible Tin Use

Main new target is zero emissions vehicles US Pat 9142830, Sep 2015 US Pat 9142830, Sep 2015 Other targets for lithium-ion include home energy storage

Silicon in anodes has higher charge capacity 4,000 3,500 Specific Capacity (mAh/g) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Graphite Tin Germanium Silicon Leading materials in development for addition to lithium-ion battery anodes Silicon appears to have taken the lead

But tin R&D continues to increase… Number of published R&D Papers relating to use in lithium ion batteries 600 500 400 Tin 300 Silicon 200 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Tin may be used to stabilise silicon

Markets for ‘post - lithium’ $14 billion by 2026 Source: Kang et al , J. Mater. Chem. A, 2015, 3, 17899

Tin is a leading anode material for ‘post lithium - ion’ battery technologies Magnesium-ion : Antimony – Tin alloy Bismuth – Tin alloy US Pat 8647770, Dec 2013 Sodium-ion : Tin sulphide / Carbon Source: Kang et al , J. Mater. Chem. A, 2015, 3, 17899

Solar cell markets grow as price falls Source: PV Demand: James, GTM Research, March 2015 PV Module Price: Four Peaks Tech., Solar Cell Central website

Solar start-ups launching tin technology now New cheap tin perovskite technology takes off

Thermo-electrics – tin selenide 50% of US heat energy from fuels is wasted Tin “the most efficient to date”

Liquid tin can produce hydrogen from methane Carlo Rubbia Nobel Laureate ‘More than 50% cheaper’ hydrogen production

New tin fuel cell products in development Tin pyrophosphate membrane Tin ‘state -of-the- art’ for cheaper fuel cells

ITRI promoting new fuel catalyst R&D Tin fuel catalysts reduce fuel and emissions

China and Indonesia dominate supply Shares in world mine output 1980 - 2014 350 Myanmar 300 China 250 Indonesia 200 Malaysia 150 Bolivia 100 50 Peru 0 ROW 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Data: ITRI

Changing China raw material sources Sources of China tin raw materials, ’000t 180 Crude tin imports 160 for re-refining Secondary refined 140 tin production 120 Concentrates imports 100 Unreported mine production 80 Reported mine production* 60 40 * Official mine production data has ceased to be 20 published since 2013. 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Data: ITRI, CRU,CNIA

Indonesian exports fall further 12-month moving total of tonnage of metal checked prior to export 110,000 105,000 100,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 New export regulations from 1 July / 30 August 65,000 2013, November 2014, August 2015 60,000

Floor price of marginal production China 2015 Cash production costs net of by- Indonesia product revenues, US$/t contained tin Other Asia (based on mid-December 2015 exchange Rest of World rates and by-product prices) “Soft floor” ~ US $13,850/t

Changes in 2015 mine production Total World Myanmar Bolivia Brazil Australia Africa Peru China Indonesia -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000

Mapping known tin resources Global tin resources (inc. reserves) Total CRIRSCO Compliant 0.05 (Mt) 0.5 (Mt) 5 (Mt) Data: ITRI * Resources located by country. Specific deposit sites not represented. Global Tin Production

Plenty of supply – at the right price Comparing global tin resource & reserve estimates 1,000 *ITRI estimates include resources and reserves non-compliant with CRIRSCO ~720 yrs Years of 2014 tin mine production (306 Ktpa) 100 Tin metal (Mt) ~37 yrs 10 ~16 yrs 11.2 Mt 220 Mt 4.8 Mt ~7 yrs 2.1 Mt 1 Extractable Global ITRI Resource (2016) USGS Reserve (2015) ITRI Reserve (2016) Resource Data: USGS, UNEP, ITRI

Visible total tin stocks ’000 tonnes 250 200 US Strategic Stockpile Producer & consumer 150 LME 100 50 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Forecast weeks’ supply and prices Weeks’ supply, price in US$/tonne Forecast 14.0 40,000 Weeks' supply Prices 35,000 12.0 30,000 10.0 25,000 8.0 20,000 6.0 15,000 4.0 10,000 2.0 5,000 0.0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Data: ITRI

Summary points  Current tin applications broadly stable in terms of technology change and substitution risks and opportunities  Potential for commercial development in energy storage and generation over 3 – 30 years  Tin supply from traditional producing areas is declining and exploration and development close to stalled  Global tin resources are more than adequate to ensure long-term supply  Medium-term price recovery likely to re-stimulate investment Energy-related R&D showing strong and growing interest in tin