THE PERSPECTIVES ON ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH IN BRAZIL CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 37 th IAEE International Conference June 18 th , 2014 New York City, USA Mauricio T. Tolmasquim CEO Energy Research Office - EPE Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 1
BRAZIL: GDP AND ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH % a.a. ������������������������� �������������������������� ���������������������� ����� ������� ����� ���� ������� ����� Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 2
TPES PER CAPITA AND GDP PER CAPITA Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 3
ENERGY BALANCE: THE RENEWABLE SHARE OECD 2012 RENEWABLES = 9.0% BRASIL 2013 RENEWABLES = 41.0% WORLD 2011 RENEWABLES = 13.3% Renewables: Hydro, Biomass,renewable fuels, waste, solar power, wind power, geothermal . Non-Renewables: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal Sources: EPE and IEA Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 4
BRAZIL: ENERGY RESOURCES WATER WIND EARTH SEA SUN Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 5
WATER Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 6
BRAZILIAN HYDRO POTENTIAL Brazil has the third China, 13% biggest hydro potential of the world ... Others, 44% Estimated Brazilian Russia, 12% hydro potential 260 GW ... however only Brazil, 10% one third of it has been developed Canada, 7% Congo, 5% USA, 4% India, 5% Source: Tolmasquim, M. (coord). Geração de Energia Elétrica no Brasil. Ed. Interciência, 2005. Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 7
HYDRO POTENTIAL: AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON % of technical potential Notes: 1. Based on data from World Energy Council, considering plants in operation and under constructions, at the end of 1999. 2. In the case of Brazil, based on data from EPE and Atlas de Energia Elétrica do Brasil, published by ANEEL. In the case of China, based on data from Worldwatch Institute. Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 8
HYDRO POTENTIAL YET TO BE EXPLORED Potential to be developed: 96 GW (out of 175GW) Potential left intact: 79 GW (out of 175GW) 41% Amazon basin, 59% Hydro potential to develop Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 9
EARTH OK Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 10
BIOMASS FROM SUGARCANE IS AN EFFECTIVE ALTERNATIVE Sugarcane has a high energetic content 153 kg sugars and 608 x 10 3 kcal 35% ethanol 276 kg bagasse 598 x 10 3 kcal 35% (50% humidity) 165 kg cuts & leaves 512 x 10 3 kcal 30% 1 ton sugar cane 1 crude oil barrel (15% humidity) 1,718 x 10 3 kcal 1,386 x 10 3 kcal 1 ton sugar cane = 1.2 crude oil barrel Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 11
BIOMASS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES Brazil has a huge bioenergy potential (biofuel and bioelectricity) � Favorable geographic and natural conditions � land availability for agriculture � soil characteristics � climate conditions (sun, rain, etc.) � Technology developed � ethanol � cogeneration from bagasse � other uses � Relatively low production cost Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 12
WIND Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 13
BRAZILIAN WIND POWER POTENTIAL ESTIMATED POTENTIAL 300 GW (100 m ) ESTIMATED POTENTIAL 143.5 GW ( 50 m) Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 14
WIND POWER DEVELOPING FASTER AFTER POWER AUCTIONS ������ ��#�!! ������ ��#��� ��#! � ��# �� ������ ������������� ����� ����� !#�� ����� �#��� �#""� ����� �#!�� �� ��! ��" �� �!" �� � ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 15
HYDROPOWER RESERVOIRS AS WIND FARMS AND BIOMASS POWER PLANTS BATTERIES WIND FARM HYDROPOWER RESERVOIR BIOMASS POWER PLANT Source: EPE Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 16
SUN Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 17
SOLAR ENERGY: BRAZIL COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES Global Horizontal Country Irradiation in a year (kWh/m²) Brazil 1500 – 2200 Germany 900 – 1250 France 900 – 1650 Spain 1200 – 1850 Global horizontal irradiation is the most important parameter for assessing solar energy potential of a particular region. Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 18
SEA OK Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 19
BRAZIL OIL PRODUCTION PROFILE million bpd $�����%�����%&�&��� '��(��������������&)����� *����)����%��������������� ���������������������������� ������*����� Source: IEA Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 20
THE IMPORTANCE OF BRAZIL TO WORLD OIL MARKETS IN 2020 -����� +�����,&���-���������������.��� � ��� � � ) � � � 3 � � � � � � � 2 � 2 1 ���� 4�*� ������������� 2��5�)�� �� � !�"���!������� /������0� 1�����)�&������� � Existing ��*�����&)������ ���������������������� Projects 0� �� ��������.�� 2012 2020 2030 Source: Petrobras and WoodMackenzie Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 21
ENERGY RESOURCES POTENTIAL: EARTH II: URANIUM URANIUM Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 22
NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE � �# LARGE URANIUM $� %�&��" ���"�� RESERVES �&� '� (&�������� ������!��$� �&� '�&� Angra I, II Navy Research �����#!"&�����!�� and III Center (SP) )!�$����*�!+��� ��! �� ,�&�������- Resende � �� industrial plant .� %�&��" ���"������� INB plant (RJ) (RJ) �&� '� ������������������� Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 23
BRAZILIAN ENERGY BALANCE BRAZILIAN ENERGY BALANCE THE LONG- -TERM PERSPECTIVE TERM PERSPECTIVE THE LONG Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 24
BRAZILIAN TPES FURTHER AHEAD Mauricio Tolmasquim (EPE) – CLOSING PLENARY SESSION: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 25
Thank you very much! EMPRESA DE PESQUISA ENERGÉTICA - EPE <http://www.epe.gov.br> Av. Rio Branco, 1 – 11 o andar 20090-003 Rio de Janeiro RJ Tel.: + 55 (21) 3512 - 3100 Fax: + 55 (21) 3512 - 3199
Recommend
More recommend
