Broadband Economic Impact in Brazil: Broadband Economic Impact in Brazil: a Simultaneous Equations Analysis a Simultaneous Equations Analysis Hildebrando Rodrigues Macedo, Hildebrando Rodrigues Macedo, Anatel, Brazil Anatel, Brazil Alexandre Xavier Ywata de Carvalho, PhD IPEA, IPEA, Brazil Brazil 19 November 2011 19 November 2011 Broadband Economic Impact in Brazil: a Hildebrando R. Macedo and Alexandre X. Y. Carvalho 5th ACORN-REDECOM Conference Lima,Peru, May 19-20th, 2010 1 Simultaneous Equations Analysis
Agenda Agenda � � Introduction , Motivation and Introduction , Motivation and Objectives Objectives Objectives Objectives � � References References � � Methodology: Model Methodology: Model � � Results and Analysis Results and Analysis � � Conclusion and Comments � � Conclusion and Comments Conclusion and Comments Conclusion and Comments Broadband Economic Impact in Brazil: a Hildebrando R. Macedo and Alexandre X. Y. Carvalho 5th ACORN-REDECOM Conference Lima,Peru, May 19-20th, 2010 2 Simultaneous Equations Analysis
Main Objective and Results Main Objective and Results � Main Objective: � Main Objective: Evaluate the broadband Evaluate the broadband economic impact in Brazil using official economic impact in Brazil using official statistics data from statistics data from Anatel statistics data from Anatel statistics data from Anatel (the Brazilian Anatel (the Brazilian (the Brazilian (the Brazilian telecom regulatory agency) telecom regulatory agency) � � Main result: Main result: � � 1 1p.p. p.p. (percentage point) (percentage point) increase in increase in broadband penetration related to GDP broadband penetration related to GDP broadband penetration related to GDP broadband penetration related to GDP growth between 0.038 to 0.18p.p. growth between 0.038 to 0.18p.p., and , and GDP per capita growth between GDP per capita growth between 0.196 0.196 to 0.362p.p.. to 0.362p.p. . Broadband Economic Impact in Brazil: a Hildebrando R. Macedo and Alexandre X. Y. Carvalho 5th ACORN-REDECOM Conference Lima,Peru, May 19-20th, 2010 3 Simultaneous Equations Analysis
Limitations of the Study Limitations of the Study � � Too high economic impact found. Too high economic impact found. � � Data used are Data used are “problematic” “problematic” � � � The � The The lack of reliable data The lack of reliable data lack of reliable data for some of lack of reliable data for some of for some of for some of the variables and the need to the variables and the need to estimate the missing data brings estimate the missing data brings additional imprecision to the results, additional imprecision to the results, additional imprecision to the results, additional imprecision to the results, which must be interpreted in a more which must be interpreted in a more cautious way. cautious way. Broadband Economic Impact in Brazil: a Hildebrando R. Macedo and Alexandre X. Y. Carvalho 5th ACORN-REDECOM Conference Lima,Peru, May 19-20th, 2010 4 Simultaneous Equations Analysis
Broadband Price Estimation Broadband Price Estimation � � Model based on results Model based on results of of CETIC CETIC survey on survey on maximum declared maximum declared price price for internet adoption for internet adoption. . ����������������������������������������� �� ������������ �������������������������������������������� �� ���������������������������������� ��������������� �����������! ��������������� �����������! �������������������������� '! � %� ��(��)�*%�%+�*� ���*�+���$*� , � �(��*))�%"� � $� #� "� &������������������ ��������������� �� +� � � � $� � +�� � +$� � ��� � �$� � "�� � � -��������������������������������������� ����!���������������������� ������������������������������� ,.!* � Broadband Economic Impact in Brazil: a Hildebrando R. Macedo and Alexandre X. Y. Carvalho 5th ACORN-REDECOM Conference Lima,Peru, May 19-20th, 2010 5 Simultaneous Equations Analysis
Broadband in Brazil: Overview Broadband in Brazil: Overview 1����������������/�������������������0�������� �������������� "��� +% �������� ����� ������� +# ����������������������� �����������������0����� �"�$ �"�$ �$�� �$�� ����� ����� /���������������������������� /���������������������������� +� /�������������������0������� ����� ���� +��� +� -�������! ���� +$�� � +��� % ���� +��� �+$ /���������� /�������� ���� ���� # # $%� $%� ���� #+# $�� �)� � %% +)$ ���� ���� ���� ���� � � ���� ���+ ���� ���" ���# ���$ ���% ���� ���� ���) ��+� 2��� ������� �������������� Broadband Economic Impact in Brazil: a Hildebrando R. Macedo and Alexandre X. Y. Carvalho 5th ACORN-REDECOM Conference Lima,Peru, May 19-20th, 2010 6 Simultaneous Equations Analysis
Broadband Penetration Worldwide(2008) Broadband Penetration Worldwide(2008) Broadband Penetration Broadband Penetration Broadband Penetration Broadband Penetration in the Region (number in the Region (number Country Country (number of accesses (number of accesses Region Region of accesses per 100 of accesses per 100 per 100 inhabitants per 100 inhabitants) ) inhabitants) inhabitants ) Argentina Argentina 7.9 7.9 Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil 5.91 5.91 5.91 5.91 Latin Latin 5.5 5.5 Chile Chile 8.4 8.4 America America Colombia Colombia 4.2 4.2 Mexico Mexico 7.1 7.1 Canada Canada 29.0 29.0 North North 27.8 27.8 USA USA 26.7 26.7 America America Spain Spain 20.8 20.8 France France France France 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 Europe Europe 24.8 24.8 Portugal Portugal 16.0 16.0 United Kingdom United Kingdom 28.5 28.5 Australia Australia 25.4 25.4 Asia and Asia and South Korea South Korea 32.0 32.0 14.0 14.0 Oceania Oceania Malaysia Malaysia 4.6 4.6 South Africa South Africa 0.8 0.8 Africa Africa 1.6 1.6 Morocco Morocco 1.5 1.5 Broadband Economic Impact in Brazil: a Hildebrando R. Macedo and Alexandre X. Y. Carvalho 5th ACORN-REDECOM Conference Lima,Peru, May 19-20th, 2010 7 Simultaneous Equations Analysis
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