Energy and climate change Global energy demand expected to grow - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

July 2015 Energy and climate change

Global energy demand expected to grow about 35% by 2040 Growth led by developing economies Energy Demand • Non-OECD nations drive growth in Quadrillion BTUs GDP and energy demand 750 1.0% Average Growth/Year 2040 2010 to 2040 • Middle class expanding by ~3 billion people 1.7% 2010 500 • Energy use per person in non- OECD remains well below OECD -0.1% 250 • Efficiency gains keep OECD demand flat • Without efficiency gains, global 0 demand growth would be four OECD Total Non-OECD times larger Source: ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy. 2

Oil and natural gas expected to meet about 60% of global energy demand in 2040 Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs • Oil and natural gas lead growth as 250 energy mix evolves 0.8% 2040 • Average Growth/Year 200 Higher oil demand driven by 1.6% 2010 to 2040 expanding needs for transportation 2010 and chemicals 150 0.1% • Strong growth in natural gas led by 100 1.0% power generation and industrial demand 2.3% 50 • 7.7% Demand trends reflect reasonable 0 cost of carbon assumptions Oil Gas Coal Other Nuclear Solar & Renewable* Wind Source: ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy. 3 * Other Renewable includes hydro, geothermal, biofuels, and biomass.

Global emissions Emissions per Capita Tonnes / Person ‘10 Rest of World Key Growth ‘40 China OECD* 4

Reducing the probability of worst outcomes Probability distribution of temperature increase (2000 to 2100) Mitigation Costs Higher $/ton CO 2 by 2100 450 ppm CO 2 No policy 0 650 ppm ~200 450 ppm ~2,000 Probability 650 ppm CO 2 No policy Lower 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average Global Surface Temperature Increase °C 5 Source: MIT Joint Program, Analysis of Climate Policy Targets Under Uncertainty, Webster, Sokolov, Reilly, et al, Sept. 2009

Unprecedented pace of technology deployment Reducing GHGs 50% below 2005 by 2050 requires all steps below: Required Annual Annual Additions Investment Additions, # Since 2005 Nuclear plants, 30 < 1 1,000 MW Coal and gas plants with CCS, 55 << 1 500 MW Wind turbines, 15,600 8,100 4 MW Solar PV, 325 million 250 million m 2 panels Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050 6

Long-range energy technology Advanced Biofuels Natural Gas to & Algae Products INCREASE SUPPLY Hydrocarbon & Renewable Energy Internal Combustion Systems Engine Efficiency EXPAND IMPROVE ENERGY EFFICIENCY Emerging Power Generation Light-weighting and ACCESS Technologies Packaging Reduction Methane Emissions SOUND MITIGATE Reduction POLICY EMISSIONS Economics and Policy DIALOGUE Advanced Carbon Capture & Sequestration 7

Backup 8

U.S. CO 2e emissions from coal plants CO 2e Emitted (k Tonnes/yr) 9 Based on 1 MW generating baseload 6 8.21 3 “ Existing ” Coal 0 Existing Coal Existing Coal, Relative Operating Time 100% 9 Basis: 2012 NETL; ExxonMobil

U.S. CO 2e abatement using natural gas CO 2e Emitted (k Tonnes/yr) 9 Based on 1 MW generating baseload 6 8.21 3 3.72 “ Existing ” Coal 0 Existing Coal New CCGT Combined Cycle Existing Coal, Gas Turbines (CCGT), Relative Operating Time 100% 100% 10 Basis: 2012 NETL; ExxonMobil

U.S. CO 2e abatement using natural gas CO 2e Emitted (k Tonnes/yr) 9 Based on 1 MW 4.49 kT generating Abated CO 2e baseload @ $23/tonne 6 8.21 3 3.72 “ Existing ” Coal 0 Existing Coal New CCGT Combined Cycle Existing Coal, Gas Turbines (CCGT), Relative Operating Time 100% 100% 11 Basis: 2012 NETL; ExxonMobil

U.S. CO 2e abatement with utility solar CO 2e Emitted (k Tonnes/yr) 9 1.83 kT 4.49 kT Abated CO 2e Abated CO 2e @ $101/tonne @ $23/tonne 6 6.38 3 3.72 0 New Utility Solar PV + New CCGT Existing Coal Solar, 24% Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT), Relative Operating Time 100% Existing Coal, 76% 12 Basis: 2012 NETL; ExxonMobil

U.S. CO 2e abatement solar with gas CO 2e Emitted (k Tonnes/yr) 9 4.49 kT 1.83 kT Abated CO 2e Abated CO 2e @ $101/tonne @ $23/tonne 6 0.77 kT 6.38 Abated CO 2e 3 @$236/tonne 2.94 “ Existing ” Coal 0 New Utility Solar PV + New Utility Solar PV + New Existing Coal CCGT Solar, Solar, 24% 24% Relative Operating Time Combined Cycle Existing Coal, Gas Turbines (CCGT), 76% 76% 13 Basis: 2012 NETL; ExxonMobil