How Dependent is Output Growth Z. Kahraman, TSP from Primary - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and How Dependent is Output Growth Z. Kahraman, TSP from Primary Energy ? I. Why is this relationship important ? I.1. Kaya’s equation Gael Giraud I. Why is this relationship CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI important ? I.2. Why is this and relationship ignored ? Z. Kahraman, TSP II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation March 28, 2014

How Dependent is I. Why is this relationship important ? Output Growth from Primary Energy ? I.1. Kaya’s equation Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, ◦ Labex REFI and Z. Kahraman, TSP I. Why is this relationship important ? I.1. Kaya’s equation I. Why is this relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation Source : BP statistical review, 2012, Shilling et al. 1977, EIA, 2012, et Banque Mondiale (PIB), 2012.

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and Z. Kahraman, TSP I. Why is this relationship important ? I.1. Kaya’s equation I. Why is this relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach ◦ II. The empirical estimation Source : OECD.

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and Z. Kahraman, TSP I. Why is this relationship important ? I.1. Kaya’s equation I. Why is this relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation ◦ Source : OECD.

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI ◦ and � E Z. Kahraman, ∆ Y Pop × Y � TSP Pop = ∆ . E I. Why is this relationship ∆ Y Pop := growth of GDP per capita. important ? I.1. Kaya’s ∆ E Pop := growth of energy consumption per capita. equation I. Why is this ∆ Y E := growth of energy efficiency. relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI ◦ and � E Z. Kahraman, ∆ Y Pop × Y � TSP Pop = ∆ . E I. Why is this relationship ∆ Y Pop := growth of GDP per capita. important ? I.1. Kaya’s ∆ E Pop := growth of energy consumption per capita. equation I. Why is this ∆ Y E := growth of energy efficiency. relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ◦ Taking the log... ignored ? II. The empirical ∆ ln Y Pop = ∆ ln E Pop + ∆ ln Y estimation E . II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation

How Dependent is Output Growth ◦ The relationship in terms of per capita quantities : from Primary Energy ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and Z. Kahraman, TSP I. Why is this relationship important ? I.1. Kaya’s equation I. Why is this relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation Source : BP statistical review, 2012, Shilling et al. 1977, EIA, 2012, et Banque Mondiale (PIB), 2012.

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and Z. Kahraman, ◦ 1965-1981 : world average TSP 3 . 5 % = 2 . 5 % + 1 % I. Why is this relationship important ? I.1. Kaya’s equation I. Why is this relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and Z. Kahraman, ◦ 1965-1981 : world average TSP 3 . 5 % = 2 . 5 % + 1 % I. Why is this relationship important ? ◦ 1981-2013 : world average I.1. Kaya’s equation 1 . 5 % = 0 . 5 % + 1 % I. Why is this relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and Z. Kahraman, ◦ 1965-1981 : world average TSP 3 . 5 % = 2 . 5 % + 1 % I. Why is this relationship important ? ◦ 1981-2013 : world average I.1. Kaya’s equation 1 . 5 % = 0 . 5 % + 1 % I. Why is this relationship important ? ◦ Japan : 2000-2013 : I.2. Why is this relationship 0 % = 0 % + 0 % ... ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and Z. Kahraman, ◦ 1965-1981 : world average TSP 3 . 5 % = 2 . 5 % + 1 % I. Why is this relationship important ? ◦ 1981-2013 : world average I.1. Kaya’s equation 1 . 5 % = 0 . 5 % + 1 % I. Why is this relationship important ? ◦ Japan : 2000-2013 : I.2. Why is this relationship 0 % = 0 % + 0 % ... ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? ◦ Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and Z. Kahraman, TSP I. Why is this relationship important ? I.1. Kaya’s equation I. Why is this relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? ◦ Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and Z. Kahraman, TSP I. Why is this relationship important ? I.1. Kaya’s equation I. Why is this relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? ◦ Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and Z. Kahraman, TSP I. Why is this relationship important ? I.1. Kaya’s equation I. Why is this relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, ◦ Labex REFI and Z. Kahraman, TSP I. Why is this relationship important ? I.1. Kaya’s equation I. Why is this relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation

How Dependent is I. Why is this relationship important ? Output Growth from Primary Energy ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI ◦ No such obvious relation in terms of energy prices. and Z. Kahraman, TSP I. Why is this relationship important ? I.1. Kaya’s equation I. Why is this relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? ◦ Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and Z. Kahraman, TSP I. Why is this relationship important ? I.1. Kaya’s equation I. Why is this relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and Z. Kahraman, TSP ◦ The cost-share theorem I. Why is this relationship important ? max Y ( x ) − p · x (1) I.1. Kaya’s equation x I. Why is this relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and Z. Kahraman, TSP ◦ The cost-share theorem I. Why is this relationship important ? max Y ( x ) − p · x (1) I.1. Kaya’s equation x I. Why is this ◦ relationship Y ( x ) × ∂ Y x i ( x ) = p i x i important ? ε i := (2) I.2. Why is this ∂ x i p · x relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and ◦ Z. Kahraman, TSP max Y ( x ) − p · x s.t. f ( x ) = 0 (3) x I. Why is this relationship f ( · ) : geological, technical, political... constraints. important ? I.1. Kaya’s equation I. Why is this relationship important ? I.2. Why is this relationship ignored ? II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation

How Dependent is Output Growth from Primary Energy ? Gael Giraud CNRS, PSE, CES, Labex REFI and ◦ Z. Kahraman, TSP max Y ( x ) − p · x s.t. f ( x ) = 0 (3) x I. Why is this relationship f ( · ) : geological, technical, political... constraints. important ? I.1. Kaya’s ◦ equation p i − λ ∂ f ( x ) � � x i I. Why is this ∂ x i relationship ε i = . (4) important ? ∂ f ( x ) p · x − λ x i I.2. Why is this ∂ x i relationship ignored ? λ = Lagrange multiplier. II. The empirical estimation II.1. A PMG approach II. The empirical estimation