MAY 8, 2012 Page 1 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW County of Middlesex Employment Land Needs Study Lauren Millie r, Millier Dickinson Blais Presented by Jamie Cook, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. May 8, 2012
MAY 8, 2012 Page 2 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW Employment Land Needs Study - The Process Study Overview Introduction – County retained Millier Dickinson Blais and Watson & Associates to prepare an Employment Land Needs Study. Study Process – Economic Base Analysis; – Assessment of Employment Lands Supply; – Development of Long-Term Employment Forecast; – Employment Land Needs Analysis; – Employment Areas Assessment and Evaluation; – Strategic Recommendations. Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2
MAY 8, 2012 Page 3 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW Employment Land Needs Study – Defining Employment Lands What are Employment Lands? The Provincial Policy Statement (2005) defines employment lands as “those areas designated in an official plan for clusters of business and economic activities including, but not limited to, manufacturing, warehousing, offices, and associated retail and ancillary facilities.” Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 3
MAY 8, 2012 Page 4 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW Employment Land Needs Study – Key Findings Economic Base Analysis County’s economic base concentrated in manufacturing, agriculture, health and social services and retail trade. Provincial and regional economy seeing shift from “goods producing” to “service producing” sectors. Manufacturing faces external challenges. County’s employment areas remain primarily oriented towards traditional sectors, especially manufacturing, construction and distribution. Strongest growth prospects for employment areas include transportation and warehousing, wholesale distribution and “knowledge-based” sectors. Business base increasingly oriented to small businesses (<10 employees). Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 4
MAY 8, 2012 Page 5 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW Employment Land Needs Study – Key Findings Employment Land Supply Middlesex County’s total gross supply of vacant employment lands totals 1,049 ha (2,593 acres). The amount of net vacant employment lands to accommodate long-term demand is approximately 703 ha (1,737 acres). The current supply of serviced “shovel ready” vacant employment land totals 261 net ha (645 net acres). Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 5
MAY 8, 2012 Page 6 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW Employment Land Needs Study – Key Findings Long-Term Employment Forecast Middlesex County’s total employment is expected to grow from 24,055 in 2011 to 28,780 by 2031, an increase of 4,715 jobs (average annual increase of 0.9%). Employment growth over the period is expected to be concentrated in Strathroy- Caradoc, Middlesex Centre and Thames Centre. Middlesex County Middlesex County Employment Forecast Employment Growth by Local Municipality, 2011-2031 Historical (1996-2011) and Forecast (2011-2031) 35,000 28,780 27,950 30,000 26,890 25,450 24,055 Employment 22,915 25,000 22,520 21,820 Thames Centre 26% 20,000 Middlesex Centre 30% 15,000 Lucan Biddulph 6% 10,000 Adelaide 5,000 Strathroy- Metcalfe Caradoc 3% 31% Southwest 0 Middlesex 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 3% Year Newbury North Middlesex Historical Forecast <1% 1% Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 6
MAY 8, 2012 Page 7 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW Employment Land Needs Study – Key Findings Employment Land Needs Over the 2011-2031 period, Middlesex County’s employment lands are anticipated to accommodate 44% (2,065 jobs) of the County’s total employment growth. Over the forecast period, employment land demand is anticipated to total 126 net acres (311 net acres); average of 6 net ha (16 net acres) annually. County-wide, Middlesex County is expected to have a surplus of 472 net ha (1,165 net acres) of employment land by 2031. All of the County’s local municipalities are anticipated to have net surpluses of vacant employment land to 2031. Over the longer term (i.e. 2021-2031), the opportunities for accommodating forecast growth on existing “shovel ready” lands is sufficient in all local municipalities, except in Middlesex Centre. Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 7
MAY 8, 2012 Page 8 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW Employment Land Needs Study – Key Findings Employment Areas Assessment - Overview Assessment of County’s key existing employment areas: – Based on ability to meet current demand and growth prospects. Consideration given to: – Physical Characteristics; – Access/Circulation; – Servicing; – Development Opportunities; – Target Sector Attractiveness. Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 8
MAY 8, 2012 Page 9 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW Employment Land Needs Study – Key Findings Employment Area Assessment – Key Findings Based on analysis regarding the Employment Areas - Overall Score requirements of specific target sectors (Maximum Score Potential of 15) and the attributes of employment areas: 14 Molnar Industrial Park The Molnar Industrial Park in 11 Thondale Industrial Park Strathroy-Caradoc is the best Da Vinci Business Park 11 positioned of the County’s industrial areas to accommodate a wide range Glencoe industrial Park 10 of industrial uses. 10 Donnybrook The DaVinci Business Park is suited to 8 Lucan Industrial Park a broad range of uses within a South Putnam Industrial Area 6 relatively prestige setting, but has 0 5 10 15 limited “shovel ready” lands. Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 9
MAY 8, 2012 Page 10 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW Employment Land Needs Study – Key Findings Employment Area Assessment – Key Findings Glencoe Industrial Park, Lucan Industrial Park and Thorndale Industrial Park offer a range of opportunities for development and are well positioned to accommodate employment in the manufacturing and construction sector. Donnybrook and the South Putnam Industrial Area are suited for transportation, warehousing and construction, but their lack of municipal servicing limits their development potential. Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 10
MAY 8, 2012 Page 11 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW Employment Land Needs Study – Recommendations Strategic Recommendations The strategic recommendations for Middlesex County and its local municipalities fall into three thematic areas: Employment Lands Protection; Targeted Marketing; Developable Land Supply and Provision for Market Choice. Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 11
MAY 8, 2012 Page 12 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW Employment Land Needs Study – Recommendations Employment Lands Protection Employment lands should be protected from conversion to non- employment uses through: – Limiting employment lands conversions to non-employment uses; – Adopting a standard framework for reviewing employment land conversion applications (both occupied and vacant sites) based on planning and economic criteria . Review permitted commercial, community and institutional uses within employment areas: – The provision for select commercial, community and institutional uses within employment areas should be assessed against the impact on industrial uses and the viability of the employment area. Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 12
MAY 8, 2012 Page 13 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW Employment Land Needs Study – Recommendations Targeted Marketing Targeted marketing of employment areas, including: – Development of a system for tracking County-wide development- related data; – Preparation of more comprehensive marketing materials and resources (signage) to highlight available employment lands and employment areas; – Greater regional and sector-specific collaboration on industrial and employment lands marketing activities; – More action-oriented marketing of high-priority employment areas. Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 13
MAY 8, 2012 Page 14 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW Employment Land Needs Study - Recommendations Developable Land Supply and Provision for Market Choice A balanced inventory of “shovel ready” and developable vacant employment lands is required that is sufficient to meet market demand in the short, medium and longer term. Requires ongoing and regular monitoring of employment land inventory to ensure adequate market choice. Longer term planning and development, including: – Consideration of short- to medium-term servicing of Komoka West employment lands; – Medium- to long-term options for employment land development in Thames Centre and along the Highway 401 corridor; and – Consideration of longer-term development opportunities in South Ilderton, subject to market choice and employment land inventory. Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 14
MAY 8, 2012 Page 15 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW Thank you Q+A Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 15
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