Climate Impacts and Adaptation in the New York Metropolitan Region - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Impacts and Adaptation in the New York Metropolitan Region Dr. Cynthia Rosenzweig NASA GISS/Columbia University Pace University Law School September 12, 2014 1

Climate Change and New York State A Long History of Action • New York State and New York City both have long history of action responding to climate change – Responding to Climate Change in New York State (ClimAID) – New York City Panel on Climate Change • Recent extreme weather events (including Hurricane Irene and Hurricane Sandy) illustrate climate vulnerabilities across the state and the need for adaptation planning NOAA and NASA, 2011 2

Climate Change in the New York City Metro Area YEAR REPORT TITLE ORGANIZATION/PUBLIISHER 2014 Updated Climate Projections for New York State New York State Energy Research & Development Authority 2013/14 New York City Panel on Climate Change Columbia University and CUNY 2011 New York State ClimAID Adaptation Assessment New York State Energy Research & Development Authority 2010 New York City Panel on Climate Change Columbia University and CUNY 2010 Rising Waters: Helping Hudson River Communities Adapt to The Nature Conservancy Climate Change 2008 New York City’s Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Storm Surge Modeling of Past Cyclones 2008 Climate Change Program Assessment and Action Plan New York City Department of Environmental Protection Spencer Platt Getty Images 2007 Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Union of Concerned Scientists Impacts and Solutions 2007 August 8, 2007 Storm Report Metropolitan Transit Authority Climate Change and a Global City: 2001 U.S. National Assessment & Columbia Earth Institute Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change 1999 Hot Nights in the City: Global Warming, Sea ‐ Level Rise and Environmental Defense Fund the New York Metropolitan Region 3 1996 The Baked Apple? Metropolitan New York in the Greenhouse New York Academy of Sciences

New York State Climate Regions Westchester sits at the boundary of three climate Regions (2, 4, and 5). Most climate data (observed and future) shown here are for Region 4. In general projected mean changes are similar throughout 4 these 3 regions. ClimAID, 2011

What does the local climate record tell us? 5

New York City Metropolitan Region Climate Hazards August 2007 Rainfall July 2010 Heat Waves Hurricane Sandy Snowfall 6 Source: NOAA; NASA; Columbia CCSR, 2014

Observed Climate Trends Temperature Mean annual temperature in New York City has increased 4.4°F from 1900 to 2011. Precipitation Mean annual precipitation has increased 7.7 inches from 1900 to 2011 (a change of 1.4 percent per decade). Year ‐ to ‐ year precipitation variability was greater from 1956 to 2011 than from 1900 to 1955. Sea Level Sea level in New York City (at the Battery) has risen 1.1 feet since 1900. Extreme Events 75% increase in heaviest rain events in Northeast in last 50 yrs Increase in strength of hurricanes and in number of the most intense hurricanes in North Atlantic since early 1980s * All trends significant at the 99% level 7 NPCC2 CRI, 2013

Observed U.S. Trends Rising Temperatures Longer Growing Season Record highs exceed record lows 8 USGCRP 2009

What is projected for the New York City metropolitan area? 9

Uncertainty and Risk Management Projections are presented in a way that facilitates risk-based decision-making Accomplished by: • – Using ranges of model ‐ based outcomes and likelihoods based on scientific literature – Presenting outcomes based on climate model results and different future greenhouse gas emissions • Note that model ‐ based outcomes do not encompass the full range of possible futures ¹ Presented relative to the 1971 - 2000 base period. Based on 35 global climate models and 2 representative concentrations pathways. The 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of the distribution are presented. 10 NPCC, 2013; CCSR, 2013

Climate Projection Methods Temperature and Precipitation • Variables – Mean annual changes RCP CO 2 Concentrations – Changes in extreme events • Quantitative projections based on global climate model simulations • Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) – 35 global climate models (GCMs) – 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) – Timeslices: 2020s, 2050s, 2080s, 2100 – 1 ensemble member per GCM – Single gridbox downscaling (Horton et al., 2011) 11 NPCC; 2013 CCSR, 2013

Mean Annual Changes Temperature and Precipitation Region 4 – New York City and Long Island* Air temperature Low ‐ estimate Middle range High ‐ estimate (10 th percentile) (25 th to 75 th percentile) (90 th percentile) Baseline (1971 ‐ 2000) 54.6°F 2020s + 1.5°F + 2.0°F to 2.9°F + 3.2°F 2050s + 3.1°F + 4.1°F to 5.7°F + 6.6°F 2080s + 3.8°F + 5.3°F to 8.8°F + 10.3°F 2100 + 4.2°F + 5.8°F to 10.4°F + 12.1°F Precipitation Low ‐ estimate Middle range High ‐ estimate (10 th percentile) (25 th to 75 th percentile) (90 th percentile) Baseline (1971 ‐ 2000) 49.7 inches 2020s ‐ 1 percent + 1 to + 8 percent + 10 percent 2050s + 1 percent + 4 to + 11 percent + 13 percent 2080s + 2 percent + 5 to + 13 percent + 19 percent 2100 ‐ 6 percent ‐ 1 to + 19 percent + 25 percent Based on 35 GCMs and two Representative Concentration Pathways. Baseline data are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and are for New York City (Central Park). Shown are the low ‐ estimate (10th percentile), middle range (25th percentile to 75th percentile), and high ‐ estimate (90th percentile) 30 ‐ year mean values from model ‐ based outcomes. 12 NYSERDA, 2014

Extreme Events Temperature Region 4 – New York City and Long Island* Number of days/year with Low ‐ estimate Middle range High ‐ estimate (10 th percentile) (25 th to 75 th percentile) (90 th percentile) maximum temperature at or above 90°F (1971 ‐ 2000) 18 days/year 2020s 24 26 to 31 33 2050s 32 39 to 52 57 2080s 38 44 to 76 87 Number of days/year with Low ‐ estimate Middle range High ‐ estimate (10 th percentile) (25 th to 75 th percentile) (90 th percentile) minimum temperature at or below 32°F 71 days/year 2020s 50 52 to 58 60 2050s 37 42 to 48 52 2080s 25 30 to 42 49 Based on 35 GCMs and two Representative Concentration Pathways. Baseline data are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and are for New York City (Central Park). Shown are the low ‐ estimate (10th percentile), middle range (25th percentile to 75th percentile), and high ‐ estimate (90th percentile) 30 ‐ year mean values from model ‐ based outcomes. 13 NYSERDA, 2014

Sea Level Rise Methods • Developed single range – Included future changes in polar ice sheets • Updated model ‐ based components with CMIP5 – 24 Global Climate Models – 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) • Revised meltwater and land ‐ subsidence terms • Added additional components – Land water storage – Gravitational, isostatic, rotational (‘fingerprint’) term 14 NPCC; 2013 CCSR, 2013

Sea Level Rise Projections Region 5 – East Hudson and Mohawk River Valleys (Troy Dam) Sea level rise¹ Middle range Baseline Low ‐ estimate High ‐ estimate (25 th to 75 th (10 th percentile) (90 th percentile) (2000 ‐ 2004) percentile) 0 inches 2020s 1 inch 3 to 7 inches 9 inches 2050s 5 inches 9 to 19 inches 27 inches 2080s 10 inches 14 to 36 inches 54 inches 2100 11 inches 18 to 46 inches 71 inches ¹ Based on 24 GCMs and 2 Representative Concentration Pathways. 15 NYSERDA, 2014; CCSR, 2013

How is the New York City metropolitan region responding to climate change? 16

Flexible Adaptation Pathways Climate change adaptation as a risk management issue Flexible Adaptation Pathways as the response 17 Source: NPCC, 2010

Steps of Assessment and Implementation 1. Identify current and future climate hazards 2. Conduct inventory of infrastructure and assets and begin to identify vulnerabilities 3. Characterize risk 4. Develop initial list of strategies 5. Identify opportunities for coordination 6. Prioritize strategies 7. Prepare and implement Resilience Plans 8. Monitor and reassess 18 NPCC, 2010

New York City Adaptation Process Leadership Mayor Implementation City Agencies ‐ Regional Authorities Coordination City ‐ wide Sustainability ‐ Private Stakeholders Office OLTPS University scholars and private sector experts E ‐ Social, biological, and Stakeholder Expert Panel physical scientists Task Force T NPCC ‐ Legal and insurance CCATF experts P ‐ Risk management W Integration across C professionals W Sector ‐ specific Working Groups ‐ Energy (E) ‐ Transportation (T) Climate Science ‐ Policy (P) ‐ Water & Waste (WW) ‐ Communications (C) Source: NPCC, 2010 19

How can we advance resilience in the New York City metropolitan region?