Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of Socio-Ecological Systems (VASES): Part 1. Approach and Methods Hanoi 20 December 2016
Content 1. Starting point for EbA and Socio-ecological systems (SES) 2. Vulnerability Assessment – steps 3. Ecological, Social, Economic and Climate Profiles 4. Identification, mapping and prioritisation of SES 5. Climate Impact and adaptive capacity assessments 6. Identification of pilot sites for village-level assessments
Starting Point for EbA: • Ecology, society and economy cannot be separated. • Natural ecosystems are the basis for human existence on this planet, and of all our economic activities. • Our ecological foundations have been profoundly modified and in many places weakened from their original state, by people pursuing economic activities in unsustainable ways.
EbA & Socio-ecological systems • EbA uses biodiversity and ecosystem services as part of an overall adaptation strategy to help people adapt to the adverse effects of climate change (CBD 2009) • The first step …... is to implement a vulnerability assessment, which is necessary to set the context of adaptation, including who and what components of the Socio-ecological systems (SES) are vulnerable and what are the risks or threats (ISPONRE, 2013) • SES: A human- environment system that has bio- physical components, social components and economic components that regularly interact with each other in a sustained way.
Vulnerability Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed; the system’s sensitivity; and its adaptive capacity
Linking Social and Ecological Vulnerability
Steps 1. Conduct Social, Ecological, Economic Scoping Profiles 2. Define, Identify and map SESs across the entire province and prioritise SESs in order of importance 3. Review historical climate hazards, future scenarios Profile 4. Climate Impact assessment: exposure x sensitivity = impact 5. Impact/adaptive capacity = vulnerability 6. Identify EbA and related actions to address vulnerabilities
Scoping-Baseline Component Scope/Objective Ecosystem Profile Identify main ecosystem types, their area and condition; connectivity in the landscape; ecological processes; Ecosystem services important for local livelihoods, economy well-being, etc. Which are the key ecosystems to work on for EbA? Social Profile O verall socio-cultural, and political context patterns of poverty, ethnicity, labour, migration, gender issues. Which social groups and which types of livelihoods are most vulnerable? Where are these groups and these livelihoods found? Economic Profile What are the main sectors of the economy - contribution to employment, food production, tax revenue, GDP; what are the Key Economic Assets (KEA) - e.g. transport, energy and water infrastructure; what are the main development trends and drivers Methods and Tools Literature review, expert opinion, key informant interviews, focal group discussions;
SES and KEA Vulnerability Component Scope/Objective Tools/Methods SES Profile Understanding how many SES Overlaying maps of ecosystems, and KEAs there are in the social groups and economic Identifying, mapping and province, where they are found, activities, use of Google Earth prioritising Socio-ecological and how important they are and field visits. Iterative process Systems (SES) and Key requiring expert judgement of Economic Assets (KEA) team members Identifying, understanding and ICEM CAM Methodology Climate Profile and ranking actual and potential Climate Projections Impact Assessment: impacts on socio-ecological Literature review, expert Understanding climate systems and Key Economic opinion, key informant pressures on socio-ecological Assets based on both exposure interviews, focal group systems and key economic and sensitivity considerations discussions; group exercises assets – using 7 climate factors Adaptive Capacity Identifying and understanding Review of policy and planning aspects of adaptive capacity at processes and institutional Assessment: the provincial level – provincial capacity at the provincial level. Understanding capacity to institutions and planning Management of ecosystems for make appropriate changes systems resilience at provincial level Overall Vulnerability Overall vulnerability score for Combine SES/KEA impact and each SES and KEA; identify adaptive capacity elements; Assessment and EbA appropriate interventions to identify EbA actions through Identification address key vulnerabilities expert knowledge, best practices, key informants, etc
Key components of SESs Ecological Social Economic Mountains > 700 m Kinh smallholders Paddy rice (irrigated or not) Sub-tropical moist evergreen Ethnic minority smallholders Upland rice/cassava/maize broad-leaf forest Coniferous forest Forest over limestone Caves, Streams and rivers Hill Areas < 700 > 10 m Kinh SME commercial Field crops Tropical broad-leaf moist Kinh large scale enterprise Forest product gathering evergreen forest Forest over limestone Caves, Streams and rivers Lowland Coastal < 10 m State-owned enterprises Small-holder acacia River systems Foreign owned enterprise Commercial rubber Estuary mudflats + mangroves Industrial fruit crops Coastal Sandy Area/sand-dunes Livestock production Lagoons and lakes Shellfish gathering Inshore marine areas Fish + shrimp aquaculture Offshore marine areas Capture Fishery
Example Ecological/Biophysical Coastal Sandy areas and Sand Dunes + Social Kinh , commercial and small-holder + Economic Shrimp aquaculture = Kinh commercial and small-holder aquaculture on coastal sand dunes
Kinh commercial and small-holder aquaculture on coastal sandy areas
Mapping SES/KEA in Ha Tinh
Mapping SES/KEA in QB
Kinh smallholder inland valley/transition mixed paddy field and tree crops Inland valley: along the valley of Gianh and Dinh rivers Transition: Along Son, Ron river and transition from valley to hilly area Total area: 101,859 ha Three districts: Tuyen Hoa, Bo Trach and Le Thuy
Prioritisation 32 SES/KEA Ha Tinh Climate/ Ecological Social Economic Environment Base for Code SES Name Land Rank Value No. Other Future Addi-tion Climate Neg Provider Depend Popu- direct use % Labour Poverty Vulnerable emphasis damage Environ of ES on ES lation GDP *<5%; used Group (SEDP) trends Impact ***>15% 1+2 SUBTROPICAL FOREST >700 M, MOIST PA1 TROPICAL FOREST < 700M State SUF Management (Vu Quang) xx xxx PA2 State SUF Management (Vu Quang, Ke Go) xxx xx x x - x x x x - 3 13.5 FPMB1 FPMB on subtropical forest >700m xxx FPMB2 FPMB on moist trop forest< 700m xxx xxx x x x x x x 17.4 x x - 6 2 MOIST TROPICAL FOREST < 700M 2b Kin/Ethnic minority smallholder field + tree xx x x xx xx xx x xx xx xx xx x 8 crops 6.5 2c Kinh commercial forestry on hill forest (Huong xx xx xx x x - x xx x xx xx xx 14 Son and Chuc A LLC) 5.5 2d Kinh smallholder inland valley paddy cultivation + tree crops (pine acacia, citrus, xxx xx xx xx x - xx xx xx xx xx xx 9 rubber, tea) 15.3 2e EM smallholder inland paddy + field crops + x xx xxx x x x x x x xx xx xx 30 forest product collection 0.0 2f Kinh commercial rubber plantations (Ha Tinh; x x x x x x - x xx x xx xx 15 Huong Khe) 4.5
Prioritisation 32 SES/KEA Ha Tinh 2g Kinh commercial livestock raising enterprises x x xx x - - xx xx x xx xx 16 0.0 3 COASTAL FLOODPLAIN xx 3a Kinh smallholder lowland irrigated floodplain xx x xxx xxx x - x x xx xx x 4 7.2 paddy rice cultivation 3b Kinh smallholder floodplain-hills transition: paddy xx rice + mixed farming, tree crops xx x xx xx x - x x x 5 9.8 4 INLAND FRESHWATER x 4a Kinh smallholder/commercial mixed freshwater x x xx x x - x x x x x 23 4.0 aquaculture 4b Kinh small holder freshwater capture fishery x x xxx x x - x x x x x x 24 0.0 5 ESTUARY x 5a Kinh commercial brackish water fish / shrimp cages x xx x - - x xx x x x xx 21 0.1 and ponds 5b Kinh artisanal shell fish collecting x x xx x x - x x x x x 29 0.0 5c Kinh smallholder salt production x - xx x x x x x xx xx 25 0.0 6 COASTAL SAND DUNE x 6a Kinh small holder vegetable gardening (oft x xxx x x - x x x xx x 26 0.1 combined with 7b) 6b Kinh smallholder livestock (cattle) raising x x xx x x - x x x x xx 28 0.1 6c Kinh smallholder freshwater fish ponds x x xxx x x - x x x xx x 27 0.1 6d Kinh commercial shrimp aquaculture x x xx x - - xx xxx x x xx xx 10 0.1 6e Kinh commercial and small enterprise beach x xx x xx x x - x x x xx xx 22 tourism 0.0 7 MARINE x 7a Kinh artisanal and commercial offshore fishing (> 6 xx xxx x x - xx xxx x xx x x 13 0.0 nm from coast.
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