Climate Change Mitigation in China Challenges and Policies in the - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

UNU-WIDER Conference on Climate Change & Development Policy 28-29 Sept., 2012, Helsinki, Finland Climate Change Mitigation in China Challenges and Policies in the Process of Industrialization and Urbanization Jiahua Pan Institute for Urban & Environmental Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences jiahuapan@163.com

content  Emissi Emission ons trend trend  Challe Challeng nges s  Urbanization Urbanization  Industrializa Industrializatio tion  Opport Opportun uniti ties es  Mitiga Mitigati tion polici n policies es  conclu conclusi sions ns

Mt CO2 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 1980 1982 2006 2008 2010 China UK Brazil India Japan US CO 2 emissions peaked, or to be peaked? US, EU, China and India compared Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/.

Emissions trends: GDP per capita and CO 2 Emission per capita, BASIC and Major EU Countries 15 14 13 12 11 CO2 Emission per capita 10 ( ton CO2/person) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 China India Italy 2 South Africa France UK 1 Brazil Germany 0 0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000 45.000 GDP per capita, $US Data Source ： 1.CO2 Emission data is from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center(CDIAC) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory 2011 ， include emission from fossil fuel combustion and Cement process 。 2.GDP Data is from World Bank Database 2012 ， Price is 2010 dollar constant price 。 3.Data of CO2 Emission from fossil fuel combustion from CDIAC and IEA are basically Consistent ， Error is in 1%.

Challenges: industrialization in different Challenges: industrialization in different parts parts of China at of China at various stages various stages Post-industr. Late stage Medium stage Early stage Pre-industr.

Industrial production (physical output for selected manufactured goods, 2009 and 2011) : -- world workshop for global market -- no more room for physical expansion 2011 unit 2009 % world 2011 unit 2009 % world m 13.79 13.79 25 25 18.41 18.41 automobile 568 568 46.6 46.6 684 684 raw steel mt m 182 182 60 60 320 320 computer 696 696 ～ 50 50 883 883 steel mt m 98.99 98.99 48 122.31 48 122.31 Color TV 1.63 1.63 >50 >50 2.09 2.09 cement bt m 59.30 59.30 60 60 86.99 86.99 refrigerator 12.85 12.85 35 35 17.68 17.68 aluminum mt m 80.78 80.78 70 139.12 70 139.12 Air conditioner 4.13 4.13 25 25 5.18 5.18 copper mt m 619.0 619.0 50 50 1,133.0 1,133.0 Mobile phone 3.05 3.05 45 45 3.52 3.52 m 27.3 27.3 57 57 33.9 33.9 coal bt Chemical fiber m 23.9 23.9 46 46 29.0 29.0 Cotton fiber 66.0 66.0 35 35 62.17 62.17 Chemical f. mt

Challenges: Urbanization 100000 100% 80000 80% 60000 60% 40000 40% 20000 20% 0 0% 9 1 0 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Urban Population Rural Population Urban Population（10000） Rural Population(10000) 城镇（%） 乡村（%） 城镇（万人） 乡村（万人） Consumer behaviour: • End of 2011: urbanization rate: 51.3%, totaling 691m End of 2011: automobile fleet totals • Incomplete urbanization: 250 m rural migrants in 105.8 million, 16.4% increase over cities the previous year. Private vehicles • 2030: urban. Rate: 70%; 300 million people 78.7 million; households cars: 43.2 • Rural: increase in income and living standard million, 25.5% more than 2010.

1.6E+13 US 1.4E+13 1.2E+13 EU 1.0E+13 （France,UK,Ge rmany） 8.0E+12 6.0E+12 中China 4.0E+12 2.0E+12 India 0.0E+00 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Opportunities: increase in capabilities （ 1970-2010 ） 单位：美元 current USD http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?page=1

Demographic trend: peak and aging Growth Family Urban. % 0-14 yrs % 60 yrs total date census rate per yr size (no.) Rate (%) & above population conducted (%) (M) 6th 1st Nov 49.68% 16.60% 8.87% 1,371 0.57% 3.10 2010 5th 1st Nov 36.09% 22.89% 6.96% 1,295 1.07% 3.44 2000 Jul 1990 4th 1.48% 3.96 26.23% 27.69% 5.57% 1,160 3rd 1st July 20.6% 1,032 2.10% 1982 2nd 30th June 18.4% 40.4% 5.5% 723 1964 (60 yrs) 30th June 1st 13.26% 574 1953 Source: population census bulletin, various years

Opportunities: Energy security, env quality Primary energy consumption (100 mtoe) for selected economies 25 中国 20 美国 15 欧盟 10 印度 5 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 年份 2011 in China: total primary energy consumption 3.48 btce, 7.0% increase over 2010

2012-07-21: Jingshi Junction, Beijing Opportunities: Climate Security – urban resilience Drought in Shandong Province, 2011 2012-06-23: Hezhou, Guangxi

Mitigation policies: target setting & implementation 2020 CO2 reduction targets   Per unit GDP reduction of CO2 by 40%—45%, as compared to 2005 level  Share of non-fossil fuel energy over primary energy consumption: 15% ；  Increase in forested area by 40 m ha as compared to 2005 level; timber volume increase by 1.3 billion cubic meters, as compared to 2005 level 12th five year (2011-2015) plan mandatory targets   Cut of Conventional environmental pollutants  Chemical oxygen demand and SO2 by 8%  NH 3 and NOx by 10%  Forest cover increase to 21.66 ％ , timber volume increase by 600 m cubic meters  Energy and CO2 emission  Energy consumption cap  Energy saving: 16% energy intensity reduction  Carbon reduction: 17% carbon intensity reduction  Non-fossil fuel energy: increase in share from 8.3% in 2010 to 11.4% 2015

Regional desegregation of national targets for performance evaluation on local gov officials Energy intensity regions provinces targets Tianj Tianjin, in, Sh Shangh anghai, J ai, Jian iangsh gshu, Z u, Zhejia hejiang ng and and Group I Group I 18% 18% Guangdon Guang dong Group Group II II Beiji Beijing, ng, He Hebei, bei, Lian Liannin ning a g and S nd Shando handong ng 17% 17% Shanx Shanxi, Jil i, Jilin, Heilo in, Heilongj ngjian iang, g, Anhui, nhui, Fu Fujia jian, n, Group II Group III Jiang Jiangxi, xi, He Henan, nan, Hube Hubei, Hun i, Hunan, Chong an, Chongqin qin, , 16% 16% Sichu Sichuan and an and Sha Shaanxi anxi Inner Inner Mo Mongo ngolia, lia, Guan Guangxi gxi, G , Guizh uizhou, Y ou, Yunn unnan, an, Group Group IV IV 15% 15% Gansh Ganshu u and Ning nd Ningxia xia Group Group V V Haina Hainan, Tib n, Tibet, Qingh et, Qinghai and ai and Xin Xinjiang jiang 10% 10%

Mitigation policies: measures & actions  Energy efficiency super- super- critical thermal power, mandatory shutdown of small scale generation  units automobile: from Euro I to Euro IV and V in 10 years  Buildings codes   renewable energy China became the largest investor in renewable energy market, with 48.9 billion  USD in 2010, consisting 28% of the world investment. Wind: China has 42.3 GW of wind power; surpassed the US in terms of total  installed capacity. China has become the world’s largest producer of wind energy equipment.” Solar:   by 2011, China has 13018.4MW Solar PV, consists 47.8% of the world market.  Solar water heaters: completely commercialised Hydropower: China’s Hydro power installation increased 5.3% in 2010, the newly  added installation consists 50% of the world total installation in 2010. Bio-gas:   forestation Sources:UNDP2010 Report on Renewable Energy; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Chinese Renewable Energy Industry Association (CREIA);

Low carbon cities Low carbon city pilot programmes: low carbon city planning per capita CO2 • Target setting: short and 25 long term 19.8 20 • measures  Energy efficiency 14.89 15 13.36 measures 10.47  Renewable energy 10 8.27 7.9 4.89 6.23 utilization 4.84 5 3.38  Forest sinks • Policies: cap & trade, 0 incentives, regulation beijing tianjin shanghai chongqing hainan China world developing EU US • Consumer behavior Source: IEA, 2011, China National Statistic Yearbook 2011

Conclusions: the way forward  Climate compatible development for climate security: urban planning and management  Transforming the energy system for securer energy supply: affordable, sustainable, and reliable  Consumption ethics: sustainable and low carbon, respect for nature, away from wasteful and luxurious consumption  Integration: pollution control, low carbon, ecological restoration  Working together: global efforts