Climate Change and beyond - the EU project "Climate for - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change and beyond - the EU project "Climate for Culture" Grant agreement No. 22 6973 (2009 - 2014) EU CHIC Meeting Olimje, Slovenia 30-31 May 2011 Johanna Leissner, Fraunhofer Gesellschaft

CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere Earth's CO 2 Home Page 391.76 ppm atmospheric CO 2 for February 2011 Preliminary data released March 8, 2011 (Mauna Loa) How do we care for the welfare of future generations?

EU plan for a competitive low- carbon economy by 2050 to fight climate change 8 March 2011 • To keep global warming below 2 ° C, the world will need to halve its emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by 2050 (compared with 1990 levels). Europe has to invest 270 billion € per year for changing industrial • production, renovating buildings and creating CO 2 -free mobility (Commissioner Hedegaard)

Climate change impact on cultural heritage D irect • building envelope - T, rH, wind-driven rain, wind speed, solar radiation, sea level rise and land slide, frost/thaw cycles ... • building interior - changing indoor conditions ... I ndirect • low carbon economy and energy problem, scarcity of resources, financial crisis, budget restrictions in the public sector • destabilization of political systems and societies (climate refugees) • demographic change / change of interest / no visitors • destruction, abandoning of land - danger of landslides

Project cornerstones • High resolution climate modelling on a regional scale • Development of hygrothermal building simulation software • Case study data base and stakeholder contributions • Economic impact report like the Stern Review

Climate modelling - A1B scenario Assumptions • rapid economic growth • increasing global population until 2050, decline after 2050 • rapid introduction A1B of new and more efficient technologies • balanced energy sources

Hot Days A1B Changes in number of days with TMAX > 30 ° C

Dry Days A1B Changes in number of days with P < 0.1 mm

Ice Days A1B Changes in number of days with TMAX < 0 ° C

• The climate will change in Europe even if the 2 ° goal can be reached! • Warming up to 3 ° C, but almost no change in P (< 10%) • The increase in temperature is regionally different with up to 4 ° C in winter in Scandinavia and 3 ° C in summer in Southern Europe • Less ice and cold days (~20-30), more hot days (but only ~20 compared to > 40 in A1B) more dry days (but only ~10 compared to > 25 in A1B) no change in number of wet days  adaptation is needed (but options and costs depend on the level of climatic changes)  even more mitigation is needed (to limit climatic changes)

Distribution of Case Studies so far Collection of data from Europe & Egypt climate microclimate building observed damages KYBERTEC Ltd. 2010

Climate classification maps Baseline 1960-1989 vs Far Future 2070-2099 by Melanie Eibl, 2011

Hygrothermal building simulation and simulation of global climate change 2010 - 2100 Measured data for a historic Simulation for 2100 building in 2009 ? by Ralf Kilian, 2009

Church in Roggersdorf – WUFI Plus Simulation - one-zone, no HVAC - long term meteorological data - interior climate measurement - good knowledge about building structure

Fraunhofer IBP Source: Google Maps Distance to Fraunhofer IBP Holzkirchen = 5 km

Detection of new damages in 2009

Indoor Environment in St. Margaretha

Comparison of measured and simulated exterior data - Data comparable? - What values do we have to compare? - What statistical methods?

Comparison of measured and modelled data for a building- first results by Florian Antretter, 2011

Application of modelled long-time exterior data increase in mean level of interior temperature less times with temperatures below 0 ° C

Mitigation, Adaptation and Preservation Strategies Selected existing and innovative methods: • Conservation heating • Dehumidification • Local Wall Heating (Temperierung) • Users Controlled ventilation / air exchange Heating • Equal Moisture Sorption Control HVAC / Infiltration Heat Buffering • Passive Control (Insulation, Infiltration, …) Moisture Buffering (Interior Surfaces) • …

Analysis and Decision Support System

The Climate for Culture approach

1. Fraunhofer Gesellschaft zur Förderung der angewandten Forschung e.V., Ge rmany 2. Czech Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic 3. Consiglio Nazionale Delle Ricerche-Istituto di Scienze dell'atmosfera e del Clima, Italy 4. University of Zagreb, Croatia 5. Institute of Electronic Structure and Laser, IESL/FORTH, Greece 6. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany 7. Technische Universität München, Germany 8. Eindhoven University of Technology , Netherlands 9. University of Ljubljana, Slovenia 10. Gradbeni Institut ZRMK, Slovenia 11. Gotland University, Sweden 12. Andreas Weiß, freelance conservator -restorer, Germany 13. Engineering Consulting & Software Development, Poland 14. Krah & Grote Measurement Solutions, Germany 15. TB Käferhaus GmbH, Austria 16. Haftcourt Ltd. UK/Sweden 17. ACCIONA, S.A, Spain 18. Bayerische Verwaltung der staatlichen Schlösser, Gärten und Seen, Germany 19. Bayerische Staatsgemäldesammlungen – Doerner Institut, Germany 20. National Trust for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, UK 21. Kybertec Ltd., Czech Republic 22. Glasgow Caledonian University, UK 23. Center for Documentation of Cultural & Natural Heritage, Egypt 24. Jonathan Ashley-Smith, Consultant for Conservation Risk Assessment, UK 25. Institut National du Patrimoine, France 26. London School of Economics & Political Science, UK 27. Fondazione Salvatore Maugeri - Clinica del Lavoro e della Riabilitazione, Italy

Cultural heritage 2010 Cultural heritage 2100? ? Chancellor Merkel 2006:"Wir dürfen unsere Zukunft nicht verbrauchen!" [We must not use up our future] Cultural heritage is a non-renewable resource we must take action now!