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C o p e r n i c u s R e g i o n a l R e a n a l y s i s f o r E u r o p e UERRA and C3S 322 Lot1 (PRECISE) overview Per Undn, Eric Bazile, Patrick Le Moigne, Climate Change Semjon Schimanke, Martjn Ridal and more.. UERRA and Copernicus RA

  1. C o p e r n i c u s R e g i o n a l R e a n a l y s i s f o r E u r o p e UERRA and C3S 322 Lot1 (PRECISE) overview Per Undén, Eric Bazile, Patrick Le Moigne, Climate Change Semjon Schimanke, Martjn Ridal and more..

  2. UERRA and Copernicus RA UERRA multi-model and ensembles Data availability Uncertainties and validation New Copernicus operational Regional RA Evaluation and quality aspects

  3. UERRA - Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional ReAnalyses Grant Agreement 607193 EU FP7 SPACE 2013-1 Production data with quality evalution and data rescue and gridded data

  4. UERRA Domain & projections 4 Met Office Uni Bonn CORDEX COSMO EU 11 km MF SMHI

  5. UERRA data sets in MARS at ECMWF Members Resol Levels Period Variables: 3D upper air: T, RH/q, u,v, (dir,speed), ution Geop/pressure, cloud, water and ice, precip, 2 and 10 m T, RH, wind, evaporation, radiation fluxes, snow etc. COSMO (Univ Bonn) 1 12 40 2006-2010 T, RH, u, v, clouds, Geop, Precip, surf etc COSMO ensemble 20 12 40 2006-2010 T, RH, u, v, clouds, Geop, Precip, surf etc HARMONIE ALADIN 1 11 65 1961-2017 T, RH, u, v, clouds, Geop, Precip, surf etc HARMONIE ALARO ensemb 1 11 65 2006-2010 T, RH, u, v, clouds, Geop, Precip, surf etc MESAN cloud V1 1 11 1 2004-2008 Total cloud cover MESAN cloud V2 ensemble 1 11 1 1991-2010 1 Total cloud cover MESCAN 1 5 1 1961-2015 T2m, RH2m, Precipitation MESCAN ensemble 8 5 1 2006-2010 T2m, RH2m, Precipitation UM 4D-VAR 1 12 70 1979-2016 T, RH, u, v, clouds, Geop, Precip, surf etc UM Ens 3D-VAR 20 36 70 1979-2016 T, RH, u, v, clouds, Geop, Precip, surf etc 5 1) MESAN V2 2018 (just another version, not real ensemble

  6. Analysis: six hourly Pressure levels at 00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC, 18 UTC (hourly for COSMO) Forecasts : T+1,2,3,4,5,6,9,12,15, 18,21,24,27,30 started at 00 UTC and 12 UTC T+1,2,3,4,5,6 started at 06 UTC and 18 UTC Model levels Height levels Store analysis output every six hours at 00UTC, 06UTC, 12UTC, 18UTC for all models. ECMWF MARS Data services Open data Surface levels: Temperature, wind, clouds, fluxes of sensible and latent heat, radiation fluxes, snow, rainfall Soil levels 6 Temperature and soil wetness

  7. 7 Curtesy Francesco Isotta, Meteo-Swiss

  8. COSMO UKMO (det) EOBS HARMONIE V1 ERA INTERIM MESCAN SURFEX NGCD Curtesy Cristian Nordic Gridded Climate Lussana (MET Norway) Dataset as one reference Frequency of wet days (>1 8 mm)

  9. C o p e r n i c u s r e g i o n a l r e a n a l y s i s f o r E u r o p e Climate Main objectjves of the service Some facts Change • Produce a regional Service lifetjme: • Sep 2017 – Aug 2021 reanalysis (RRA) for Europe • Contractor • Sub-contractors • Deliver data monthly in near real-tjme (operatjonal service) • User support and guidance

  10. T i m e l i n e o f s e r v i c e a n d s y s t e m d e t a i l s 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Climate Change UERRA system in near real tjme (11km resolutjon) New system in operatjonal mode (5.5km resolutjon) Development of the new system Development of the new system EDA system (10 members at 11km resolutjon) • • 11 km (500x500 grid points), 65 levels 5.5 km (1100x1050 grid points), 106 levels • Surface analysis at 5.5 km – no downscale • Surface downscaling analysis 5.5 km • Plus 10 ensemble members at 11km (MESCAN) • Will start in the early 1980s • Start in 1961 and operatjonal from 2/2018

  11. M o d e l s y s t e m s : c o m m o n b a s e Climate • HARMONIE-ALADIN system Change • 3D-VAR data assimilatjon • Large scale constraint (J k ) • Incremental digital fjlter initjalizatjon

  12. M o d e l s y s t e m s : d i fg e r e n c e s Climate UERRA system New system Change • 5.5 km (~1100x1050 grid 11 km (500x500 grid points) • points) • 65 levels (10hPa) • 106 levels (1hPa) • Surface downscaling • Surface analysis at 5.5 km as analysis 5.5 km (MESCAN) part of the system • Plus 10 ensemble members at 11km and coupling to data assimilatjon

  13. M o d e l s y s t e m s : d i fg e r e n c e s UERRA system New system Climate Change HARMONIE cycle 38h1 HARMONIE cycle 40.1h / 42 (ALADIN physics) (ALADIN physics) with convectjon updates SURFEX 7.3 SURFEX 7.3 with updates ERA40 and ERA-interim as ERA5 as LBC LBC 4 cycles per day 8 cycles per day (analysis every 3 hours) No satellite data Satellite radiances, e.g. IASI, SEVERI, MSU, AMSU + AMV, GPS-RO --- Usage of ERA5 ODB fjles, e.g. blacklistjng informatjon --- More obs-data, e.g. GBGNSS

  14. Climate Change  New 106 level resolution similar to ECMWF Level thickness as a funcion of pressure (y-axis). C3S_322 in black and UERRA 65L in red; ECMWF/ERA5 in green). The fjttjng from Pierre B is piecewise spline and requires a lot of trials by changing parameters in three domains of the atmosphere and this high number of levels is necessary to get a curve commensurate with ERA5 while stjll smooth and fjnishing at 1 hPa

  15. N o n c o n v e n tj o n a l o b s e r v a tj o n s Observing system Period Instrument Climate Change NOAA-09,……..19 1984—2009- - MSU NPP 2011 - ATMS METOP-A, B 2006-2012-- AMSU-A/MHS/IASI METEOSAT SEVIRI EUMETSAT AMV 1982- Retrieved imagery reprocessed Polar winds EUMETSAT AMV 1988-1973-2016 Reprocessed GPS-RO 2001-2016, 2017- Reprocessed CDR GNSS-ZTD 1996-2014- Reprocessed EPN, Nordic SE land survey

  16. GNSS groundbased Zenith Total Delay data 1997-2014 Also European EPN network will be used

  17. Verifjcatjon Climate Change 11 km, 106 vertjcal levels. No assimilatjon. Red in the plots.   5.5 km, 106 vertjcal levels. No assimilatjon. Green in the plots.   UERRA, 11 km, 65 vertjcal levels. With assimilatjon. Blue in the plots. 

  18. Verifjcatjon Climate Change Wind speed, STDV and BIAS

  19. Clouds and humidity truncated at >99 % Climate Change and then zero values – these fields are not useable. Not discovered during production until very late. Corrected from 2016.

  20. S t a t u s W P 4 – U s e r s u p p o r t a n d g u i d e l i n e Climate Validatjon of UERRA data Change Usage of RRA 1961 - 2015 with the intentjon to produce training material for the users Unfortunately, so far we managed only to identjfy some problems with the data. These are related to the short term hourly forecasts (fc1 and fc2) and mainly wind and temperature parameters.

  21. Final points UERRA HARMONIE (SMHI) and MESCAN (MF) C3S_322 lot 1 European Regional operational Reanalysis Many improvements expected in new system Higher resolution, more observations, ensembles More Quality Assurance More User interaction

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