Business Plan JANUARY 2020 LPMG January 23, 2020 Process - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Caltrain Business Plan JANUARY 2020 LPMG January 23, 2020

Process Overview Agenda for Today Making it Happen: Options for Caltrain Service Over the Next Decade CalMod: Improved Service in the 2020s Going beyond CalMod Ridership Forecasts (2020-2030) Work in Progress & Next Steps 2

Pr Process Ov ocess Over erview view 3

What Addresses the future potential of the railroad over the next 20-30 years. It will assess the benefits, What is impacts, and costs of different service visions, building the case the Caltrain for investment and a plan for implementation. Business Plan? Why Allows the community and stakeholders to engage in developing a more certain, achievable, financially feasible future for the railroad based on local, regional, and statewide needs.

What Will the Business Plan Cover? Technical Tracks Community Interface Service Business Case Organization • • • • Benefits and impacts to Number of trains Value from Organizational structure • surrounding communities Frequency of service investments (past, of Caltrain including • • Number of people present, and future) Corridor management governance and delivery • strategies and riding the trains Infrastructure and approaches • • Infrastructure needs operating costs consensus building Funding mechanisms to • • Equity considerations to support different Potential sources of support future service service levels revenue

Timeline July 2018 – July 2019 October 2019 Winter 2019-2020 Spring 2020 Fall 2019 Adoption of Rounding Out the Vision Development Completion of Long-Range and Implementation and Evaluation Business Plan Service Vision Planning of Growth Scenarios 6

Remaining Technical Analysis Making it Happen Building towards the Vision with service concepts for initial With a 2040 Service Vision adopted, what will the electrification and options for growth next 10 years look like for Caltrain? What are the and investment through 2020s key actions and steps we need to focus on next? Accompanying financial Additional technical and policy analysis is projections and funding plan underway to focus on what Caltrain can achieve over the next decade and they key near term steps and work that will be needed to make it happen Identification of a program of key planning, policy and organizational next steps 7

Remaining Technical Analysis Rounding Out Analysis of connections to the Vision other systems & station access options With a 2040 Service Vision adopted, how can Caltrain “Round Out” its vision for the future? Equity analysis & focus on making Caltrain accessible to all Additional technical and policy analysis are underway with a focus on areas that that were highlighted as important through stakeholder outreach and help complete the picture of the Review of funding options and railroad Caltrain hopes to become revenue generation opportunities to support the Vision 8

Making Making it Ha it Happen ppen 9

Caltrain’s 2040 Service Vision Illustrative Service Details Peak: 8 Caltrain + 4 HSR Trains per Hour, Off-Peak: Up to 6 Caltrain + 3 HSR per Direction Local / Express with timed transfer in Mid Peninsula Stopping Pattern 61 Min (Express) Travel Time, 85 Min (Local) STC-Diridon New Passing Millbrae, Hayward Park-Hillsdale, Redwood City area, Northern Santa Clara County, Blossom Hill Tracks • Local and Express trains each operating at 15- Service Plan minute frequencies with timed cross-platform Description transfer at Redwood City • All trains serve Sales For Transit Center • Trains serve Capitol and Blossom Hill every 15 minutes and Morgan Hill and Gilroy every 30 minutes • Skip stop pattern for some mid-Peninsula stations 10

Caltrain’s 2040 Service Vision - Investments 11

Getting to the 2040 Vision The “path” of milestone service improvements and investments used in initial Business Plan work was based on a simplified version of the existing plans of Caltrain and its partner agencies 2040 Amount of Investment / Number of Trains Service Vision 2033 • 8 Caltrain trains phpd, regular High Speed express + local service 2029 • Up to 10-car train lengths Rail Phase 1, • Up to 10 min off peak service HSR Valley to SF to LA • Service to Downtown SF via DTX 2022 Valley & • Significantly increased service to • 6 Caltrain trains phpd Start of South San Jose and South Santa Downtown • 8- car trains Clara County • Skip stop service 2018 Electrified Extension • Up to 4 HSR phpd • 30 minute off peak service Operations Diesel Fleet • Service to Downtown SF via • 6 Caltrain trains phpd, skip DTX stop service • 6 Caltrain trains phpd, • Up to 4 HSR phpd • 5 Caltrain trains per • Full electrification and skip stop service hour, per direction expansion to 8- car trains • Expansion to 7-car (phpd), existing • 30 minute off peak service trains varied schedule • Service to Downtown SF via • 30 minute off peak • Hourly off peak DTX service service • Up to 2 HSR phpd Design Year 12

Getting to the 2040 Vision With a long-range Service Vision established, we can optimize our approach. We can explore different “paths” or incremental steps that allow us to deliver improved service sooner 2040 Amount of Investment / Number of Trains Service Vision 2022 Start of 2020 Electrified Operations Diesel Fleet The path Caltrain ultimately takes will be based on our ability, and the ability of our partners, to fund and implement key investments Design Year 13

Key Questions for the Next Decade What is the potential market demand for Caltrain service over the next 10 years – how can we grow to satisfy it? Insert generic corridor picture – Which benefits of the 2040 Service Vision could Caltrain deliver before 2030? ideally one showing tracks • How can we use the initial electrified system (but not diesel trains) (CalMod) to deliver near-term service benefits and best meet market demand? • How could we improve service further through subsequent incremental investments? 14

CalMod: Improved Service in the 2020s

Market Analysis Additional Slides Included In Appendix Service Illustrative Market Planning Service Concepts & Service Analysis Priorities Levels at Evaluation Plans Stations

Understanding Demand Daily ridership demand for Caltrain service will likely exceed 90,000 passengers in the next decade. This growth is driven by several factors: Latent Demand Population and Improved Connectivity Employment Growth Improving Caltrain New connections like the service and increasing Station areas will add over Central Subway will extend Caltrain’s reach capacity will make 100,000 new residents and Caltrain more appealing employees within ½ mile of for a wider range of trips Caltrain stations, a ~30% increase over existing

Caltrain Corridor – Approved Growth Job Growth Population Growth

2020s Outlook Total Jobs Total Population

2020s Outlook – South of Tamien Total Jobs Total Population Unmet Demand Capitol and Blossom Hill have large populations that are underserved by Caltrain, while Morgan Hill, San Martin, and Gilroy have Total Jobs comparatively lower demand. Operational Constraints Under the current agreement with Union Pacific, Caltrain can add up to two additional roundtrips to Gilroy to reach five trips per day. There is limited flexibility in when these trips can be added without affecting mainline service. Two of these roundtrips could be extended south to Salinas subject to further planning and agreement by both the Caltrain Board and Union Pacific.

5 4 20 Existing Highest Ridership Moderate Lower Ridership >4,000 <2,000 Ridership Daily Riders Daily Riders 2,000 – 4,000 Ridership by Daily Riders 22nd Street Bayshore Station South San Francisco San Bruno Broadway Burlingame Hayward Park Belmont San Carlos Atherton Menlo Park California Ave San Antonio Lawrence Santa Clara Tamien 4th & King Capitol Redwood City Millbrae Blossom Hill Palo Alto San Mateo Morgan Hill Mountain View Hillsdale San Martin San Jose Diridon Sunnyvale Gilroy

8 9 13 Potential Highest Ridership Moderate Lower Ridership Potential Ridership Potential Potential 2,000 – 4,000 >4,000 <2,000 2020s Demand Daily Riders Daily Riders Daily Riders by Station San Bruno Broadway Burlingame Hayward Park Bayshore Belmont 4th & King South San Francisco San Carlos 22nd Street San Mateo Atherton Millbrae Hillsdale Tamien Redwood City Menlo Park Capitol Palo Alto California Ave Blossom Hill Mountain View San Antonio Morgan Hill Sunnyvale Lawrence San Martin San Jose Diridon Santa Clara Gilroy

8 9 13 Potential Highest Ridership Moderate Lower Ridership Potential Ridership Potential Potential 2,000 – 4,000 >4,000 <2,000 2020s Demand Daily Riders Daily Riders Daily Riders by Station San Bruno Broadway Burlingame Hayward Park Bayshore Belmont 4th & King South San Francisco San Carlos 22nd Street San Mateo Atherton Millbrae Hillsdale Tamien Redwood City Menlo Park Capitol Palo Alto California Ave Blossom Hill Mountain View San Antonio Morgan Hill Sunnyvale Lawrence San Martin Stations experiencing significant changes San Jose Diridon Santa Clara Gilroy