Bloomberg New Energy Finance house view ● PV will make up 17% of the world’s electricity supply by 2040 ● Batteries and PV will get sharply cheaper ● Solar thermal will barely grow beyond the existing pipeline, as it is too expensive to compete head to head ● Does this likely auction result overturn this conclusion? ● We know very little about the specific conditions of the Dubai auction – is the $94.5/MWh a rate for all MWh, or a base rate with a peak generation premium? What’s the inflation index? How much storage is there? Will it be able to sell grid services as a battery system can? Hoping to learn more from other panelists! 0 June 19, 2017
PV and storage projects Project Solar:storage Price Delivery year 8 hours (‘up to Dubai 200MW $94.5/MWh? 2021 15 hours’) Phase IV Kaua’i Island 3.5 hours $111/MWh (w/ 2018 (28MW PV/ 30% ITC + 100MWh) Hawaii credit) “below Tucson Electric/ 4 hours 2019 $45/MWh ” w/ NextEra ITC 1 June 19, 2017
Lithium-ion battery price forecast (2010-30e) $/kWh 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 - 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2 June 19, 2017
PV module prices and learning curve calculations, 2016 $/W 100 1976 1976 1985 1985 10 2003 2008 1 2015 2017 (estimate) 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Cumulative capacity (MW) historic prices (Maycock) Chinese c-Si module prices (BNEF) Experience curve at 28% Experience curve at 24% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 3 June 19, 2017
Hypothetical PV + storage – 2021 project Assumption Total PV 200MW $0.83/W(DC) $166m Lithium-ion battery 1600MWh $156/kWh $250m Capacity factor 20% Cost of 8% equity, 4% debt, no tax capital Opex $61,000 per MW per year LCOE $115/MWh (inflation adjusted) -> so $94.5/MWh does look good for the Dubai solar thermal project, at first glance – but this storage is massive, and the battery can offer more services…. 4 June 19, 2017
Recommend
More recommend
