BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT NEW YORK 23 APRIL 2013 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT NEW YORK 23 APRIL 2013 Michael Liebreich, Chief Executive Bloomberg New Energy Finance Twitter: @miebreich / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 1

AGENDA 1. Clean energy investment update 2. Four energy realities 3. New Energy ROI / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 2

GLOBAL TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY, 2004-2012 ($BN) -11% +20% +34% -2% +16% +45% $302bn $269bn $251bn +42% $191bn $187bn +48% $165bn $114bn $80bn $54bn 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted for re- invested equity. Does not include proceeds from acquisition transactions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 3

GLOBAL RENEWABLE CAPACITY ADDITIONS (GW) 80 Other 60 renewables Biomass & Waste 40 Wind 20 Solar 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Note: “Other renewables” includes marine and geothermal power only. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 4

CLEAN VS FOSSIL-BASED GENERATING CAPACITY INVESTMENT, 2006 – 12 ($BN) 350 300 250 Fossil fuel 200 150 100 Clean energy 50 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: Clean energy total excludes large hydro. Fossil fuel is investment on coal and gas capacity. We assume capacity retirement of 3.3%/yr for coal and 4%/yr for gas. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 5

EQUIPMENT SUPPLY AND DEMAND, 2006-2015 (GW) SOLAR WIND 80 90 Manufacturing 70 80 capacity Optimistic 60 70 60 50 Manufacturing 50 Conservative capacity 40 40 30 30 Demand 20 20 10 10 Demand 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Note: Supply scenarios based on continued 2012 utilisation rates. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 6

NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2003 – 2013 YTD 700 700 NEX 600 600 NASDAQ S&P 500 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 - - Jan-03 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-1 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Note: Values as of 10 April 2013; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2003 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 7

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION, 2004- 2012 ($BN) Europe 108.0 North America & Caribbean 97.8 75.8 70.7 73.2 63.1 58.4 Asia & Oceania 100.7 41.8 40.8 39.0 40.3 36.5 87.1 28.5 28.9 27.1 18.0 66.8 14.2 7.1 47.3 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 39.9 30.6 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 22.4 15.2 9.5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Central & South America Middle East & Africa 14.5 12.9 11.1 10.3 10.0 9.9 11.8 5.4 3.5 4.9 4.2 0.8 2.7 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 8

US 2012 – THE CLEAN ENERGY ELECTION I’m going to renew the wind Solyndra! Solyndra! Solyndra! Production Tax Credit! Pictures: Bloomberg / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 9

US ANNUAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT AND CAPACITY ADDITIONS, 2004-2012 TOTAL INVESTMENT, $BN CAPACITY, GW 65.2 17.4 - 32% +100% Other 44.2 43.3 42.9 renewables 42.5 11.3 Biomass & 9.6 32.4 32.1 waste 8.7 Solar 5.7 5.6 17.1 Wind 10.6 3.1 2.0 0.6 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 10

HENRY HUB GAS PRICE ($/MMBTU) 20 Summit 2013 $4.26/MMBtu (+130%) 15 Summit 2012 10 $2.21/MMBtu 5 Henry Hub 0 Oct-2005 Oct-2006 Oct-2007 Oct-2008 Oct-2009 Oct-2010 Oct-2011 Oct-2012 Source: Bloomberg Terminal / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 11

EUROPEAN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP SPREADS, 2009-12 16 Portugal 14 Italy 12 Spain 10 France 8 Netherlands Germany 6 UK 4 Sweden 2 Finland 0 Norway Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Source: Bloomberg Terminal / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 12

EUROPE - POLICY UNCERTAINTY Retroactive changes Unplanned reduction Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 13

TOP 15 COUNTRIES FOR NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN 2012 AND % CHANGE ON 2011 ($BN) China 65.13 65.13 20% United States 35.58 -37% Germany 22.80 -27% Japan 16.28 75% Italy 14.71 -51% United Kingdom 8.34 -17% India 6.85 -45% Australia 6.19 40% South Africa 5.46 20563% Brazil 5.34 -32% Canada 4.41 -23% France 4.31 -34% Belgium 4.05 11% Greece 3.42 179% Spain 2.95 -68% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 14

SUPPLY CHAIN CONSOLIDATION / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 15

NEW ENERGY REALITIES 1. Unconventional oil and gas 2. Improving energy intensity 3. Cheap clean energy 4. Unpredictability / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 16

US SHALE GAS PRODUCTION (BCF PER DAY) 30 25 Rest of US Eagle Ford 20 Marcellus Qatar 15 Haynesville China Woodford 10 Fayetteville UK 5 Barnett 0 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, US EIA, UK DECC, China Customs, BP Statistical Review / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 17

US PROJECTED NET IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS, 2008-20 TRILLION CUBIC FEET 5 4 3 2 Historical 2010 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010-2013; Note: 2013 figures show Early Release Bloomberg New Energy Finance / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 18

US PROJECTED NET IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS, 2008-20 TRILLION CUBIC FEET 5 4 3 2 Historical 2010 1 0 2011 -1 -2 -3 -4 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010-2013; Note: 2013 figures show Early Release Bloomberg New Energy Finance / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 19

US PROJECTED NET IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS, 2008-20 TRILLION CUBIC FEET 5 4 3 2 Historical 2010 1 0 2011 -1 2012 -2 -3 -4 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010-2013; Note: 2013 figures show Early Release Bloomberg New Energy Finance / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 20

US PROJECTED NET IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS, 2008-20 TRILLION CUBIC FEET 5 4 3 2 Historical 2010 1 0 2011 -1 2012 -2 -3 -4 2013 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010-2013; Note: 2013 figures show Early Release Bloomberg New Energy Finance / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 21

MAJOR GLOBAL SHALE FIELDS Canada Norway Poland Algeria China Libya USA Mexico Brazil Australia 200 trillion South Africa Argentina cubic feet Source: EIA Assessment of World Shale Gas Resources, Note: Technically recoverable shale gas resources shown April 2011 / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 22

UK SHALE GAS The extraordinary windfall, which is completely God-given, that this country has got is shale gas. Owen Paterson UK Environment Secretary Picture: Getty Images / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 23

AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND, 2005 – 2022 TWh AUD trillion 280 1.5 Oct 2010 260 1.4 GDP 240 1.2 220 1.1 Historical 200 0.9 180 0.8 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance / / / / MICHAEL LIEBREICH BNEF SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 23 APRIL 2013 TWITTER @MLiebreich 24