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ACS ACS ACS U.S. House Briefing U.S. House Briefing U.S. House Briefing March, 2009 March, 2009 March, 2009 US Fossil Energy US Fossil Energy US Fossil Energy US Fossil Energy Scott W. Tinker Scott W. Tinker State Geologist of Texas

  1. ACS ACS ACS U.S. House Briefing U.S. House Briefing U.S. House Briefing March, 2009 March, 2009 March, 2009 US Fossil Energy US Fossil Energy US Fossil Energy US Fossil Energy Scott W. Tinker Scott W. Tinker State Geologist of Texas and Director, Bureau of Economic Geology y State Geologist of Texas and Director, Bureau of Economic Geolog Professor, Allday Endowed Chair, Jackson School of Geosciences Professor, Allday Endowed Chair, Jackson School of Geosciences President, American Association of Petroleum Geologists President, American Association of Petroleum Geologists

  2. U.S. Fossil Fuels U.S. Fossil Fuels U.S. Fossil Fuels I. Fossil fuel diversity is found in the electricity sector II. Energy transitions take time; rate is limited by scale III. Growth of atmospheric CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels will likely slow as a function of the fossil fuel mix IV. The world has and will use coal; CCS and CMVA could reduce CO 2 emissions. V. Significant U.S. oil and natural gas resources are in limited access areas VI. Big Oil is no longer big VII. A brief look at proposed fossil energy policies

  3. Fossil Fuel End Use Fossil Fuel End Use Fossil Fuel End Use Uranium Hydro Electricity Transportation I. Fuel diversity is found in the Conventional Oil electricity sector Coal B i o U.S. Data m ~ 87% a s Natural Gas s Fossil Fuels Heat Data: EI A 2007

  4. Primary Fossil Fuel Demand Primary Fossil Fuel Demand Primary Fossil Fuel Demand Fossil 91% 87% 80% Fuels Tinker Forecast 45% % Total Consumption Petroleum 40% 35% Coal 30% 25% Natural Gas 20% 15% Nuclear Hydroelectric 10% 5% Biomass, Geothermal, Solar & Wind 0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 ~495Q Fossil II. Energy transitions Global Energy Consumption (quads) ~255Q ~415Q Fuels 200.00 180.00 1.25% annual demand growth take time; rate is limited by scale 160.00 140.00 120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 20% Non 40.00 Fossil 20.00 0.00 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Historical Data: EIA October 2007

  5. CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions Annual Anthropogenic CO2 (mmT) 12,000 Calculated CO2a Emmissions NA 10,000 Europe 45,000,000,000 8,000 Africa 40,000,000,000 ME 6,000 35,000,000,000 Calculated CO2a (tons) Cent & SA 4,000 30,000,000,000 Eurasia 25,000,000,000 2,000 Iii. Growth of atmospheric CO 2 Asia & Oceania 20,000,000,000 emissions from fossil fuels 15,000,000,000 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 9 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 10,000,000,000 will likely slow as a function of Global Energy Consumption (quads) 200.00 5,000,000,000 180.00 160.00 the fossil fuel mix 140.00 0 120.00 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 100.00 80.00 60.00 Year 40.00 20.00 Based on Tinker Forecasts 0.00 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CO2 Oil (tons) CO2 Gas (tons) CO2 Coal (tons) CO2 Data: EIA, 2007 Historical Data: EIA October 2007

  6. Coal Reserves Coal Reserves Coal Reserves

  7. +$ CCS BEG’ ’s s BEG BEG’s Gulf Coast Gulf Coast Gulf Coast IV. The world has and will use coal; EOR Carbon Center Carbon Center Carbon Center CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) and CMVA (Characterize, Measure, “Stacked Stacked Verify, Account) could reduce CO 2 “ “Stacked Sinks” ” Sinks emissions. Sinks” -$ CMVA

  8. Tinker, 2008 Conventional Oil Conventional Oil Conventional Oil Production/Reserves Production/Reserves Production/Reserves Access Limited Oil Reserves Oil Production U.S. Does not 1400.0 29 BBO include extra 1200.0 Reserves (billion barrels) ~2.5% Thousand Barrels per Day 90,000 heavy oil, oil 1000.0 80,000 sands, oil OPEC 800.0 Non OPEC/US 70,000 shale 600.0 US 60,000 OPEC 400.0 50,000 200.0 Non OPEC/US 40,000 0.0 US 30,000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20,000 Year U.S. mmbod 10,000 Produce < 7 0 Import 12.9 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 ~39.5 BBO Resources 40% Recovery ~ 15.8 BBO Reserves ~2.2 mmbod for 20 years Year Data sources: BP Statistical Review, 2008; NPC, 2007; EIA, 2008

  9. U.S. Natural Gas Production U.S. Natural Gas Production U.S. Natural Gas Production Global Unconventional Gas Resource Estimates 10 Annual Natural Gas Production (TCF) U.S. Natural Gas Production vs. Conventional Gas Production 9 8 25,000 7 U.S. Natural Gas Production (Bcf) NA: 30% recovery, ~125 yrs at 20 TcF/year Natural Gas Production Tight Gas 6 Conventional Gas 20,000 5 Unconventional Gas 4 15,000 3 Coalbed Methane 2 1 10,000 V. Significant U.S. oil and Gas Shales 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year 5,000 natural gas resources are in Unconventionals limited access areas 0 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 Year Data: EIA 2007 Unconventional Gas Global Data: SPE Paper 68755 Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Natural Gas

  10. Tinker, 2008 Conventional Oil Reserves Conventional Oil Reserves Conventional Oil Reserves Amerada Hess Fina Amoco Kerr-McGee Anadarko Mobil 0.3 Ashland Occidental ARCO Oryx BPAmerica Phillips Petroleum 0.25 Burlington Resources Shell Oil Chevron Sun 0.2 Coastal Texaco DuPont (Conoco) Union Pacific Res. VI. Big Oil is no longer big % 0.15 Enron Unocal Exxon USX (Marathon) (and NOCs are becoming IOCs) 0.1 “Big Oil” 0.05 0 ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) l ) ) ) a n C ) a a a l l n q a i r i E o t a a P i a b d n a o i i i i i z a a O c a l A i s s s r t o B u t a e r i r o e r r i h w s s s a N e v u U x M r a I I g T ( ( u u u C Q B g e u e S z ( l n C C a R R R A h e i M o ( K ( c N o y C O O n ( ( ( r s ( o ( o ( b ( x t m s a e l h I N e c C n x x i i N C V o r L o P c m d e E I P o b P k k ( a A m r o a K u u V N p r r r e t L Y D N z a t A P e a n P P G o S Source: Oil and Gas Journal, 2005 Source: Oil and Gas Journal, 2005

  11. Oil and Natural Gas Oil and Natural Gas Oil and Natural Gas 2010 Proposed Energy Policies 2010 Proposed Energy Policies 2010 Proposed Energy Policies Repeal Expensing of I ntangible Drilling Costs Expensing of I ntangible Drilling Costs Repeal � � Repeal Percentage Depletion Percentage Depletion Repeal � � Repeal Marginal Well Tax Credit Marginal Well Tax Credit Repeal � � Repeal Enhanced Oil Recovery Credit Enhanced Oil Recovery Credit Repeal � � Repeal Manufacturing Tax Deduction Manufacturing Tax Deduction Repeal � � I ncrease G and G Amortization Cost G and G Amortization Cost I ncrease � � Excise Tax Tax on Gulf of Mexico Production on Gulf of Mexico Production Excise � � Fee ($4/ acre) on ($4/ acre) on “ “non non- -producing producing” ” GOM leases GOM leases Fee � � Carbon Tax (or Cap and Trade scheme) (or Cap and Trade scheme) Carbon Tax � �

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