Background Acidic deposition patterns and issues Linkages with mercury Linkages with climate change Linkage with State, regional and U.S programs Final thoughts
Seepage Drainage Thin till Medium till Thick till Carbonate
Wet Dry Climatic Data Deposition Deposition • Solar radiation PnET • Precipitation Water balance • Temperature Photosynthesis Living biomass Litterfall Atmospheric Chemistry Carbon dioxide Net Mineralization Ozone Uptake BGC • Aqueous reactions • Surface reactions • Cation exchange • Adsorption BGC – Surface water • Humic binding Aqueous reactions • Aluminum dissolution/precipitation Deep water flow Weathering
48 Long Term Monitoring Lakes 1992-2008 Min - Mean - Max SO4 n=47 NO3 n=19 Ca n=39 n=34 ANC ALIM n=35 HION n=28 n=46 SO4 + NO3 n=29 CB -4 -2 0 2 Change (ueq/L-yr, umol/L-yr)
48 Long Term Monitoring Lakes 1992-2008 Min - Mean - Max DOC n=22 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Change (umol C/L-yr) Effects of increases in DOC supply: compensating acidification, enhanced metal transport but decreases in bioavailability, and increase attenuation of light and prolonged thermal stratification
Cumulative Frequency Diagram for Exch. Al (cmol c /Kg) Cumulative Frequency Diagram for Ca (cmol c /Kg) Exch. Al Normalized to C (Oa Horizon) Ca Normalized to C (Oa Horizon) 100 100 % Less than Exch. Acidity 80 80 % Less thab Ca % Less than Ca 60 60 40 40 1984 1984 20 20 2001 2001 0 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 20 40 60 80 Ca (cmolc/Kg) Exchangeable Aluminum (cmolc/Kg)
E levated S evere Moderate 14 Low Acute 12 pecies 10 8 Number Fish S 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 ANC(ueq/L)
HBEF r 2 = 0.67 6 Sleepers River r 2 = 0.78 Beaver Meadow r 2 = 0.86 Lake Inlet r 2 = 0.92 FTHg (ng L-1) 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 DOC (mg C L-1)
1.8 1.6 Sunday Lake 1.4 Arbutus Lake 1.2 y = 6.67x -2.40 MeHg (ng/L) 2 = 0.49; P < 0.0001; n = 131 r 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Sulfate (mg/L)
AOGCM - Hadley (high sensitivity) - GFDL (mid sensitivity) - PCM (low sensitivity) Low CO 2 = 550 ppm High CO 2 = 970 ppm at 2100
With CO 2 Fertilization
Acidification Recove ry Deposition Forests Lake Lakes Soil Sugar Maple Sulfate Nitrate Acidity Sulfate Nitrate ANC DOC Fish Calcium Red Spruce ? ? ? Strongly Recovering Moderately Recovering Uncertain Deteriorating
Mercury Interactions Deposition Forests Lakes Total Methyl Fish Soil Sulfate Mercury Sulfate Mercury Mercury DOC Mercury Mercury ? ? ? ? ? ? Strongly Recovering Moderately Recovering Uncertain Deteriorating
Climate Interactions Deposition Forests Lakes Soil DOC Nitrate ANC Fish Nitrate Soil DOC ? ? ? ? ? ? Strongly Recovering Moderately Recovering Uncertain Deteriorating
NADP, CASTNet, LTM, TIME CLAD/FOCUS/CASAC MercNet Mercury pollution committee in NYS RGGI
24 hindcast forecast Target load
Isopleth of ANC - Critical Load Isopleth of ANC - Target Load (2030) 54.9 54.9 -3 0 -2 -1 5 0 0 44.7 44.7 -2 5 -1 -1 -2 1 0 0 5 1 -1 1 34.5 34.5 NO 3 (eq/ha-yr) NO 3 (eq/ha-yr) 10 2 0 5 2 10 1 24.9 24.9 2 3 10 15 2 3 16.9 16.9 10 4 15 3 4 15 9.7 9.7 125.2 125.2 83.9 104.5 64.0 83.9 104.5 35.8 48.4 64.0 35.8 48.4 SO 4 (eq/ha-yr) ANC (µeq/L) SO 4 (eq/ha-yr) ANC (µeq/L)
Final Thoughts Continue monitoring, link acidic deposition, mercury and climate change monitoring and modeling Link between atmospheric and watershed models Better understanding of changes and effects of DOC supply Improved understanding and predictions of biological response to climate and chemical change Improved dialog between research and management programs
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