AIM Model Presentation Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AIM Model Presentation Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi Yuzuru Matsuoka Kyoto University, Japan 1. Brief introduction of the AIM 2. Projection of Global Warming 3. Mitigation of Global Warming Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment 1 October 25, 2002

AIM (Asian team ) Policymaking Process IMAGE GCAM (Netherlands ） （ USA ） Integrated Assessment Model Atmospheric meteorology geophysics economics Chemistry policy sciences pedology paleo- geochemistry ecology climatology hydraulics Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment 2 October 25, 2002

The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model • AIM is an abbreviation of Asia-Pacific Integrated Model. • It is one of Integrated Assessment Models ( IAM ), and a large-scale computer simulation model developed to promote the integrated assessment process in the Asia-Pacific region • Collaborated study by Japan, China, India , Korea, Thailand and Malaysia members. • The AIM project is started in July 1990, and began an international collaboration system from 1994. Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment 3 October 25, 2002

The AIM Approach Population Technology model Economic model Mitigation AIM/Trend Lifestyle of Energy Climate Land use model model APEIS Change Japan team AIM/Emission, GHG emissions IPCC AIM/Material India team UNEP/GEO3 Eco-Asia Carbon cycle China team Atmospheric Ocean EMF19 chemistry uptake model Korea team apply develop- Climatic change National ment government AIM/Climate Climate change Thailand team private companies Adaptation Malaysia team Water resource Sea level of rise Human Climate health Change Ecosystem Agriculture AIM/Ecosystem Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment 4 October 25, 2002

AIM/Emission AIM/Climate Atmos- AIM/Emission CCSR/NIES phere CGCM Socio-Econ. & Land Ocean Emission Scenario AIM Surface (Asian-Pacific Integrated Water Land-use Resource Model) Crop Socio-Econ. Productivity Factors Food Demand And Supply AIM/Ecosystem Adaptation Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment 5 October 25, 2002

AIM/Emission Coupling of Top-down model and Bottom-up model Socio-Economic Scenarios Population Resource Base Lifestyle GDP AIM/emission Regional / National Bottom-up Model SO 2 , End Use Food NO x , Social Industrial Technology Industrial Consumption SPM Energy Energy Process Change Pattern Production Emissio Efficiency Efficiency Change n Exploitation Resource Other GDP GDP Regional Air Base Technology Inputs Pollution Population Population Model Energy Resource Goods & Goods & Energy Service Service Service Energy Demand Supply Deman Price d Primary Social Energy Final Energy Final Supply Energy Efficiency Energy Biomass Goods and Change Demand Supply Energy Service Price Energy Demand Conversion End Use Technology Technology Efficiency Change Land Energy Input Conversion Cropland End Use Technology Technology Pasture Forest Biomass Farm Global Energy-Economic Model Other Land Global Land GHGs Equilibrium Model Emissions AIM/climate Model Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment 6 October 25, 2002

CO 2 Emission Scenarios A1FI (A1C) A2 A1FI (A1G) A1B B2 A1T B1 Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment 7 October 25, 2002

AIM/Climate AIM/Climate Atmos- AIM/Emission CCSR/NIES phere CGCM Socio-Econ. & Land Ocean Emission Scenario AIM Surface (Asian-Pacific Integrated Water Land-use Resource Model) Crop Socio-Econ. Productivity Factors Food Demand And Supply AIM/Ecosystem Adaptation Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment 8 October 25, 2002

AIM/Climate AIM/emission Natural change convection and Balance and Chemical model transport of of GHGs aerosol, SO 2 and Carbon cycle model CH 4 model NOx N 2 O model CFCs model Climate model Radiative forcing, Energy balance Ocean model Upwelling-Diffusion ocean model Sea level rise model Ice melt Thermal Global temperature change Glaciers expansion Greenland GCM,RegCM Antarctica Spatial interpolation with GCM experiments Regional temperature change Sea level rise Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment 9 October 25, 2002

Temperature change between 1990 and 2100 Simulated 7 GCMs are GFDL R15a, CSIRO Mk2, HadCM3, HadCM2, ECHAM4/OPYC, CSM 1.0 and DOE PCM ← 95% 5.1 C Fitted probability and frequency of occurence 1 Geometric mean= 2.88 C S.D. of logarithm= 0.346 ← 50% 2.88 C All 3.1±1.1 A1FI 4.5±0.9 0.6 0.5 A2 3.8±0.8 s f o e 0.4 c y A1B 2.9±0.6 n ← 5% 1.63 C c e n r 0.2 e B2 2.7±0.6 r u u q c 0 e c A1T 2.5±0.6 r o 1 ～ 1.5 F 1.5 ～ 2 2 ～ 2.5 2.5 ～ 3 3 ～ 3.5 B1 2.0±0.5 3.5 ～ 4 4 ～ 4.5 4.5 ～ 5 5 ～ 5.5 0 5.5 ～ 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 T e m p Temperature change (C) e r a t u r e c h a n g e ( C ) Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment 10 October 25, 2002

Climate change in Asian-Pacific countries from 1990 to 2100, increase in DJF Precipitation change Temperature change Frequency of 0.25 0.25 Frequency of occurrence occurrence 0.2 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 India 3.1±1.1 ℃ 0 0 India 3.7±19.5% <1.0 China 3.9±1.4 ℃ 25 ～ 30 1.0-1.5 1.5-2.0 2.0-2.5 T 10 ～ 15 2.5-3.0 e China 7.2±9.4% 3.0-3.5 m Japan 3.7±1.3 ℃ Precipitation change (%) 3.5-4.0 p 4.0-4.5 -5 ～ 0 e r 4.5-5.0 a 5.0-5.5 t u Global 3.1±1.1 ℃ 5.5-6.0 Japan 4.6±9.9% -20 ～ -15 r e 6.0-6.5 c 6.5-7.0 h > 7.0 a < -30 n g e ( ℃ ℃ ) Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment 11 October 25, 2002

AIM/Ecosystem AIM/Climate Atmos- AIM/Emission CCSR/NIES phere CGCM Socio-Econ. & Land Ocean Emission Scenario AIM Surface (Asian-Pacific Integrated Water Land-use Resource Model) Crop Socio-Econ. Productivity Factors Food Demand And Supply AIM/Ecosystem Adaptation Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment 12 October 25, 2002

Wheat productivity change in some countries from 1990 to 2100 With CO 2 fertilization Without CO 2 fertilization 1 1 f 0.8 o e c 0.8 y Frequency of n 0.6 c occurrence e n 0.6 r 0.4 e r u u 0.4 c 0.2 q c e o r 0.2 0 C a F n 50 ～ a d 40 ～ 50 a 30 ～ 40 9 0 Canada 29.7±6.9% I 0 n . 20 ～ 30 d 6 i ± ～ ～ a 10 ～ 20 1 0 9 0 5 - 5 0 ～ 10 3 . 8 ～ ～ 0 4 % ～ 0 0 4 India -53.2±19.9% . ～ ～ 3 4 0 C ± 3 ～ -10 0 1 ～ ～ Productivity change (%) -10 h 3 0 i 6 0 2 ～ -20 n . 2 ～ ～ 0 1 a 1 % 0 ～ -30 ～ ～ -20 1 0 3 P ～ ～ 0 ～ -40 3 China -5.9±10.6% -30 0 . r 0 2 1 1 ± o - -40 ～ -50 J - ～ ～ 0 a 1 2 d 0 p 2 - -50 ～ -60 2 ～ ～ . u 0 a 5 - 0 3 n ～ -70 % c 3 ～ ～ - -60 0 - 4 2 t 0 ～ ～ - -70 4 i 4 0 Japan -6.5±1.5% v . - 5 3 0 - -100 i 5 ～ ～ 0 ± t - 6 4 0 y - . 6 ～ ～ 0 4 - 7 0 % c - 7 ～ ～ h - 0 0 a 1 n - g e ( % ) Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment 13 October 25, 2002

Costs and Benefits Atmospheric Stabilization GDP reduction relative Wheat productivity change in India from 1990 to 2100, with to SRES scenarios CO2 fertilization 4.1 3.6 2.9 3.3 0.40 5.0 GDP loss (%) 1.9 f 0.30 e o 4.0 2.3 2.3 c 0.20 y 0.9 n c 3.0 e 0.9 0.10 n r 0.3 7 e r 5 0 p 2.0 0.6 u 0.00 p m u - 1.2 1.2 450ppm -70 ～ -65 2 c 6 9 5 q ± -65 ～ -60 0 7 p . 8 -60 ～ -55 p 0.4 % c m 1.0 0.0 -55 ～ -50 e - -50 ～ -45 2 o 5 6 5 ± -45 ～ -40 0 7 0.3 r p . 0 550ppm -40 ～ -35 p % m F -35 ～ -30 0.0 - -30 ～ -25 2 0 4 ± -25 ～ -20 5 6 0 0.0 Productivity change (%) . p 8 -20 ～ -15 p % m 0.0 0.0 0.0 -15 ～ -10 A1FI - -10 ～ -5 1 650ppm 4 S ± -5 ～ 0 5 R . 8 E 0 ～ 5 S % A2 5 ～ 10 - 3 4 A1B ± 1 6 % 750ppm B2 A1T Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment 14 October 25, 2002

Some Representative results of AIM calculation Global temperature increases in 2100 are 3.1 ± 1.1 ℃ , lower • and upper 5 percentile temperatures are 1.6 and 5.1 ℃ . • Climate change impacts are serious in some sectors and countries. India, wheat productivity, 34 ± 16% and 53 ± 20% decrease w/wo CO 2 fertilization. • Some impacts are recovered by these mitigations. In the Indian case, the percentages of recovered are; Target 450ppm 550ppm 650ppm 750ppm concentration % recovered 20% 14% 8% 5% • The costs of atmospheric Reference B2 A2 Scenario stabilization are 450ppm target 0.9 3.6 550ppm target 0.6 3.3 in GDP% loss 650ppm target 0.3 2.3 750ppm target 0.0 1.2 Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment 15 October 25, 2002