Development of Development of AIM/Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The 12 The 1 2th AIM International Workshop th AIM International Workshop 19- -2 20 0, February 200 , February 2007 7 19 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan NIES, Tsukuba, Japan Development of Development of AIM/Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] model ] model AIM/ - GHG emissions reductions and costs GHG emissions reductions and costs - in Asia regions - - in Asia regions National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan Tatsuya Hanaoka , Mikiko Kainuma, Junichi Fujino Kyoto University Yuzuru Matsuoka, Osamu Akashi, Mizuho Information and Research Institute Go Hibino, Maho Miyashita 2007/3/20 1

Topics Topics 1. Objective 1. Objective 2. Overview of developing Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] ] 2. Overview of developing 3. Scenario outline 3. Scenario outline 4. Result Results in Asia regions s in Asia regions 4. - Global and regional reduction potentials Global and regional reduction potentials - - Marginal abatement costs Marginal abatement costs - 2007/3/20 2

Objective of this study Objective of this study Background � According to recent scenario studies，most of BaU scenarios show increase of GHG emissions toward the latter half of the 21st century. � Considering socioeconomic and technology level in each country & region, studies such as burden sharing, CDM potentials, regional and global economic impacts become major interests in the world. To evaluate GHG mitigation potentials and estimate To evaluate GHG mitigation potentials and estimate marginal abatement costs in world regions. marginal abatement costs in world regions. - Comparison of region Comparison of region- -wise & sector wise & sector- -wise wise - reduction potentials and reduction costs reduction potentials and reduction costs - Technologies with large reduction potentials Technologies with large reduction potentials - 2007/3/20 3

Overview of Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] ] Overview of ◆ Target Regions Target Regions : 23 geographical world regions 23 geographical world regions ◆ Time Horizon Time Horizon : 2000 2000 – – 20 2020 20 (planning to expand up to 2050 planning to expand up to 2050) ) ( ◆ Target Gas Target Gas : CO2, CH4, N2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs HFCs, , PFCs PFCs, SF6 (CFCs, , SF6 (CFCs, HCFCs HCFCs) ) ◆ Target Sectors Target Sectors : multiple sectors multiple sectors (Power generation sector / Industry sector / Residential sector / / (Power generation sector / Industry sector / Residential sector Commercial sector / Transport sector / Agriculture sector / Commercial sector / Transport sector / Agriculture secto r / CH4 & N2O emissions sector / F- -gas emissions sector gas emissions sector ) ) CH4 & N2O emissions sector / F 2007/3/20 4

Geographical coverage Geographical coverage Depending on what is to be analyzed, there are different approaches for regional aggregations In this study, focus major GHG emission regions, especially Again regions in detail n regions in detail In this study, focus major GHG emission regions, especially Agai Region Region Code Code Region Region Code Code 1) Japan Japan JPN 12) Canada CAN 1) JPN 12) Canada CAN 2) China China CHN 13) USA USA 2) CHN 13) USA USA 3) India 3) India IND IND 14) EU- 14) EU -15 in Western Europe 15 in Western Europe XE15 XE15 4) Indonesia Indonesia IDN 15) EU- -10 in Eastern Europe 10 in Eastern Europe XE10 4) IDN 15) EU XE10 5) Korea Korea KOR 16) Russia RUS 5) KOR 16) Russia RUS 6) Thailand 6) Thailand THA THA 17) Argentine 17) Argentine ARG ARG 7) Other South Other South- -east Asia east Asia XSE 18) Brazil BRZ 7) XSE 18) Brazil BRZ 8) Other South Asia Other South Asia XSA 19) Mexico MEX 8) XSA 19) Mexico MEX XLM 9) Middle East 9) Middle East XME XME 20) Other Latin America 20) Other Latin America XLM 10) Australia AUS 21) South Africa ZAF 10) Australia AUS 21) South Africa ZAF 11) New Zealand 11) New Zealand NZL NZL 22) Other Africa 22) Other Africa XAF XAF 23) Rest of the World XRW 23) Rest of the World XRW 2007/3/20 5

Target gas and sectors Target gas and sectors Target gas Target sector Target service Target gas Target sector Target service CO2 Power Coal power plant, Oil power plant, Gas power plant, CO2 Power Coal power plant, Oil power plant, Gas power plant, generation other powers generation (wind, biomass, PV) generation other powers generation (wind, biomass, PV) CO2 Industry Iron and steel, cement, other industries CO2 Industry Iron and steel, cement, other industries CO2 Residential & Cooling, heating, hot- -water water， ，cooking cooking， ，lighting lighting， ， CO2 Residential & Cooling, heating, hot commercial refrigerator, TV commercial refrigerator, TV CO2 Transportation Passenger vehicle, truck， ，bus bus， ，ship, aircraft ship, aircraft， ， CO2 Transportation Passenger vehicle, truck passenger train passenger train， ，freight train (except for pipeline freight train (except for pipeline transport and international transport) transport and international transport) N2O Industry process Adipic acid, nitric acid, cropland acid, nitric acid, cropland N2O Industry process Adipic & agriculture & agriculture CH4 Agriculture & Coal mining, gas production, livestock rumination, CH4 Agriculture & Coal mining, gas production, livestock rumination, non- -agriculture agriculture manure management, paddy field, municipal solid non manure management, paddy field, municipal solid waste waste HFCs, , F gas By- -product of HCFC product of HCFC- -22, refrigerant 22, refrigerant， ，aerosol, foams aerosol, foams， ， HFCs F gas By PFCs, SF6 , SF6 solvent, etching， ，aluminum production, magnesium aluminum production, magnesium PFCs solvent, etching 2007/3/20 6 production. Insulation gas, others. production. Insulation gas, others.

Outline of model simulation Outline of model simulation � Base year: 2000 2000 � Target year : 2020 2020 � Discount rate: 5%/year 5%/year � Baseline scenario: technology technology- -frozen case frozen case Assuming the characteristics in 2020 as the case under Assuming the characteristics in 2020 as the case under existing technology options with the same technical and existing technology options with the same technical and economic characteristics as in 2000 economic characteristics as in 2000 � Reduction potentials are estimated by consideration of diffusion of of selected advanced technology. � Additional costs are estimated by subtraction of the cost of existing technology and the one of selected advanced technology in each sector 2007/3/20 7

Estimation of service demands Estimation of service demands Current method of estimating future service demand Current method of estimating future service demand � in sectors in residential, commercial, transportation, industry � in sectors in residential, commercial, transportation, industry Service Demand Future in 2000 Service Demand Change of Various IEA Energy World energy Service Demand statistics balance outlook from SAGE * SAGE* : USDOE, 2003, Model Documentation Report: System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets � in sectors in non � in sectors in non- -CO2 emission CO2 emission Service Demand Future in 2000 Service Demand Various IEA Energy World energy Various statistics 2007/3/20 statistics balance outlook 8

Example of on- -going work and issues going work and issues Example of on General General � � – Refine & investigate data of driving forces in the base year and Refine & investigate data of driving forces in the base year and future. future. – – Develop rich database of technology options Develop rich database of technology options – Data preparation in residential and commercial sector Data preparation in residential and commercial sector � � – Detai Detailed check of biomass energy consumption led check of biomass energy consumption – – Detailed check of biomass energy technologies Detailed check of biomass energy technologies – – Consideration of relationship between building types and warming Consideration of relationship between building types and warming – demand demand – Consideration of Consideration of technology substitution over energy kind in cooking, technology substitution over energy kind in cooking, – hot water and warming hot water and warming – Detailed check of energy technology of hot water and warming in Detailed check of energy technology of hot water and warming in – Europe and the United States Europe and the United States – Estimation of future driving force not using SAGE – Estimation of future driving force not using SAGE Data preparation in transportation sector Data preparation in transportation sector � � – – Detai Detailed check of service demand in year 2000 led check of service demand in year 2000 (Check consistency with energy consumption, energy efficiency, (Check consistency with energy consumption, energy efficiency, number of vehicle) number of vehicle) – Estimation of future service demand by econometric model Estimation of future service demand by econometric model – 2007/3/20 9