The latest version of AI M/ Enduse Model The latest version of AI M/ - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The latest version of AI M/ Enduse Model The latest version of AI M/ Enduse Model Go Hibino Go Hibino Fuji Research I nstitute Corporation Fuji Research I nstitute Corporation The 8th AIM International Workshop The 8th AIM International Workshop 13- -15, March 2003 15, March 2003 13 At Ohyama At Ohyama Memorial Hall Memorial Hall 1

The latest version of AI M/ Enduse Model The latest version of AI M/ Enduse Model 1) Module to estimate CH4 and N2O emission 2) Module to estimate PM emission and analyze the effect of removal processes. 3) Integrate country model and LPS/area source model 4) Future works 2

1) Module to estimate CH4 and N2O emission a. Greenhouse gas emission share in Asia countries 100% 80% 60% Others N2O 40% CH4 CO2 20% 0% Philippines Brunei Malaysia China I ndia I ndonesia Singapore Thailand Japan Korea Myanmar Vietnam Source : IEA 3

1) Module to estimate CH4 and N2O emission b. Main source of CH4 and N2O emission Classification Source CH4 N2O ○ Energy production Coal Mines ○ Oil Production/Refining ○ Gas Production/Transmission/Distribution ○ ○ Enteric Fermentation Cattle ○ ○ Buffalo ○ ○ Sheep ○ ○ Goats ○ ○ Camels ○ ○ Horses ○ ○ Mules and Asses ○ ○ Swines ○ Rice Cultivation Paddy Rained Flood Prone ○ Field Burning of Agr. Residue Carbon ○ Nitrogen ○ ○ Biomass Burning Charcoal Production ○ ○ Fuel Wood ○ ○ Charcoal Consumption ○ ○ Dung ○ Agriculture Soil Syntheric Fertilizers 4

1) Module to estimate CH4 and N2O emission c. Emission source in AI M/ Enduse model Energy Device CO2 Energy Device Service NOx CH4 Emission Source CH4 Source Service • Paddy field area • Livestock heads • Coal production ... 5

1) Module to estimate CH4 and N2O emission d. CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O Emission estimated with AI M/ Enduse model 4,000 3,500 3,000 Greenhouse gas emission (MtCO2eq) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 CO2 2032 CO2 1998 0 CH4 2032 CHN JPN IND KOR IRN IDN TWN CH4 1998 PRK THA UZB KAZ PAK MYS PHL SGP VNM TKM WSM N2O 2032 BGD AFG LKA PNG MMR MNG TJK KGZ N2O 1998 NPL BTN PLW KIR BRN FJI LAO NRU 6 PYF MDV VUT SLB TON KHM

2) Module to estimate PM emission and analyze the effect of removal processes Without removal process SO2 ･ NOx Energy Device Service With removal process SO2 ･ NOx Energy Device Service Removal Process • Coal washing • Lime stone injection • Flue gas desulfurization .. Version 2.0 Version 2.0 • PM2.5 ， PM10 • Gravity / inertial settlers • CO • Cyclones • NMVOC .. • Electrostatic precipitators .. 7

3) I ntegrate country model and LPS/ area source model March, 2002 September, 2003 LPS/ area source model Country model March, 2003 8

4) Future work 1) Solve the problem in energy conversion sector and energy end-use sector, respectively Energy conversion sector Energy conversion sector Cost Secondary Energy Secondary Energy Cost minimization minimization Energy end-use sector Energy end-use sector Cost minimization 2) Module to estimate future emission without GAMS Data GAMS Output Data GAMS Output Maximum share Share, Emission Share Emission 9