AIM/Enduse Application to Pakistan and Myanmar Rahul Pandey IIM, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AIM/Enduse Application to Pakistan and Myanmar Rahul Pandey IIM, Lucknow, India AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Presentation scheme • Overview of Pakistan & Myanmar’s energy-economy • Data estimation & Scenario assumptions • Preliminary results • Aggregate data estimation tool for AIM/Enduse AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Social & Economic Indicators Item Pakistan Myanmar GDP $ 80.8 Billion $ 42.4 Billion Population 165 Million 47 Million GDP growth 4.0-5.0% 4.5-6.5% (1998-2002) Agriculture 25% of GDP 47% of GDP Commercial energy Oil & Gas dominated Gas & Oil dominated Accessibility to elec. 50% < 25% Persons/vehicle 100 132 AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Energy Sources & Supply Item Pakistan Myanmar Nat.Gas reserves 26.4 Tcf 12.1 Tcf Nat.Gas production 800 Bcf 216 Bcf Oil reserves 310 Mill.bbl 200 Mill.bbl Oil production 19 Mill.bbl 3.5 Mill.bbl Oil imports 112 Mill.bbl 5.2 Mill.bbl Coal reserves 2.5 Bt 0.26 Bt (India: 82 Bt) Coal production 3.5 Mt 0.026 Mt (India: 360 Mt) Electricity capacity 18 GW 1173 GW Electricity mix 39%O, 30%H, 29%G 75%G, 23%H, 2%O AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Energy … (contd.) Item Pakistan Myanmar Per capita comm.energy use 218 kgoe 95 kgoe (India: 317) Per capita C emission 0.22 tC 0.1 tC (India: 0.25) Traditional energy scenario: Biomass energy use 22 Mtoe 9 Mtoe (India: 163) % of commercial energy use 60 200 AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Data estimation • Secondary sources: – International publications/databases (IEA, WDI, WRS, IISI, FAOSTAT, FAO-RWEDP, USDOE, etc) – National government/ministry websites – Country specific reports from internet • Technology efficiency assumptions based on India and Bangladesh (if country specific factors are unavailable) • Calibration of aggregate parameters with IEA Energy Balance Tables • Interlinked Energy/CO2 and Non-CO2 databases AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Data estimation: Sector classification Pakistan Myanmar Agriculture Agriculture Commercial Commercial Industry: Brick, Cement, Fertilizer, Industry: Steel, Others Others Residential: Cooking & water heating, Residential: Cooking, Other uses Lighting, Space heating, Fans, ACs, Refrigerators, TVs, Other appliances Transport: Road, Rail passenger, Rail Transport: Road passenger, Others freight, Air passenger, Others Electricity generation Electricity generation Oil production Oil production Oil refining Oil refining Gas production Gas production Gas transport & distribution Gas transport & distribution Coal mining Coal mining Rice cultivation Rice cultivation Domestic livestock Domestic livestock Synthetic fertilizers Synthetic fertilizers AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

CO 2 & Non-CO 2 linkage in AIM/Enduse CH4 CO2, SO2, NOx Coal Coal mining methods Coal consuming devices CH4 Petro. Petro. import Oil production consuming Petro. Oil devices Refining Oil import CH4 CO2, SO2, NOx AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

CO 2 & Non-CO 2 linkage in AIM/Enduse CH4 Gas export demand Gas Gas production Gas Delivered Transport & consuming Gas distribution devices CH4 CO2 AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Scenarios • BAU – Service projection drivers from AIM-Trend output (Reference scenario) – Moderate efficiency improvement assumptions – Declining share of biomass cookstoves – No Tax or Emissions constraint • Tax: $ 50 / tC – Constant tax from 2010 onwards • Tax: $ 100 / tC – Constant tax from 2010 onwards AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Pakistan: BAU Results 180 Biomass 160 140 Nuclear & Other renewables 120 Coal 100 30 Mtoe Nuclear & Othe 80 Hydro 25 renewables Hydro 60 20 Gas 40 Mtoe Coal 15 20 Oil Oil 10 - 5 Gas 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 - Year 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 Primary energy Year Primary energy use in power sector AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Pakistan: BAU Results 350 Agriculture 300 Commercial 250 Residential Mt CO2 200 Industry - cement Industry - brick 150 10000 Industry - others 9000 100 8000 Fugitive - oil & ga Electricity 50 7000 Transport Fugitive - solids 6000 kt CH4 0 5000 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 Rice cultivation 4000 3000 Domestic livestoc Year 2000 1000 CO2 emissions 0 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 Year CH4 emissions AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Pakistan: BAU Results 1800 1600 Commercial & Agriculture 1400 Industry 1200 kt NOx 1000 Electricity 1200 800 600 Residential 1000 400 Industry & others 800 Transport 200 kt SO2 0 Residential 600 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 400 Electricity Year 200 Transport NOx emissions 0 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 Year SO2 emissions AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Pakistan: Scenario Results 350 Efficiency improvement in Industry, 300 Transport; Oil to Electricity, Oil to Gas BAU 250 $ 50/tC Mt CO2 Primary energy switch from Oil to 200 $ 100/tC 150 Renewables 100 CO2 emissions 50 0 10 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 9 9 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 BAU 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 8 Year $ 50/tC 7 6 Mt CH4 $ 100/tC 1200 5 4 BAU 1000 3 $ 50/tC CH4 emissions 800 2 kt SO2 $ 100/tC 1 600 0 400 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 SO2 emissions 200 Year 0 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 Year AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Myanmar: BAU Results 30 25 Biomass 20 Coal Mtoe 15 Hydro 10 Gas 5.0 5 Oil 4.5 4.0 0 3.5 Hyd 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 9 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3.0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Mtoe 2.5 Oil Year 2.0 Gas 1.5 Primary energy 1.0 0.5 0.0 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 9 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year Primary energy in power sector AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

AIM-Myanmar: BAU Results 45 3500 40 Agriculture 3000 35 CH4 CO2 Fugitive - oil & gas Commercial 2500 30 Mt CO2 Fugitive - solids 25 Residential kt CH4 2000 20 Industry - others 1500 Rice cultivation 15 Electricity 1000 10 Domestic livestock Transport 500 5 0 0 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 6 0 9 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year Year 300 160 Commercial & 250 140 NOx Agriculture SO2 120 Industry & othe 200 Industry 100 kt NOx kt SO2 Residential 150 Electricity 80 100 60 Electricity Residential 40 Transport 50 Transport 20 0 0 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 9 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year Year AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba

Future Work • Disaggregate Myanmar database; Myanmar mitigation analysis • Non-CO2 database for Bangladesh • Detailed analysis for Pakistan & Bangladesh • Validate Non-CO2 database • Costs of Non-CO2 abatement options • Other countries AIM Workshop March 2004 NIES, Tsukuba