Myanmar High-frequency Monitoring of Covid-19 Impacts Myanmar - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

R O U N D 1 Myanmar High-frequency Monitoring of Covid-19 Impacts Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 2020 The World Bank Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Survey 2 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

The only nationally representative survey of firms in Myanmar 12 sectors Micro & 500 firms Informal too 8 rounds The survey also covers all of The survey is nationally The survey covered micro and Myanmar and is divided into 6 zones representative and is the only small firms too and not just large enterprise survey that also and formal firms. 35% of the ( Yangon , Mandalay , Chin and Dry Zone , Delta and Costal Lowland , and covers the Agriculture sector sample were micro firms and (17%). Manufacturing (33%), 40% were small firms. Medium the Hilly zone. Retail (17%) and Services (32%) firms were 19% and large firms are the other sectors. 6%. Closing the Development Gap 3 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

16 % of firms closed for an average of 2 months AND expect to stay closed for another month 4 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

23% Border states 20% 18% and more 13% densely 12% populated areas saw higher Hilly Zone Yangon Mandalay Chin and Dry Delta and temporary Zone Coastal Lowland closures Two of the five zones are single states, Yangon and Mandalay. The Hilly Zone includes the states of Kachin, Kayah, and Shan. The Delta and Coastal Lowland Zone includes the states of Ayeyarwaddy, Rakhine, Mon, Bago, Tanintharyi, and Kayin. Chin and the Dry Zone includes the states of Chin, Sagaing, Magwe, and Nay Pyi Taw. 5 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

39% 39 % of firms in the service sector 15% 12% closed 6% temporarily Service Retail and Manufacturing Agriculture wholesale 6 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

51% 83% of firms experienced cash flow shortages of firms experienced of firms experienced 29% reduction in sales a reduction in accessing credit 7 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

86% Female- 80% owned firms were more 52% 50% likely to 32% report 25% 16% 17% negative effects from Temporarily Reduction in Cash flow Reduction in Covid-19 closed sales shortages access to credit Female ownership Non-female ownership 8 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Firms in agriculture were hardest hit by cash flow shortages and access to credit Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 9 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Agriculture firms 89% 84% 82% 75% were least 64% impacted by 52% 48% 42% reduction in sales, 41% but their smaller 30% 27% 21% profits and informal status exposed them Agriculture Manufacturing Retail and wholesale Agriculture Manufacturing Retail and wholesale Agriculture Manufacturing Retail and wholesale Service Service Service most to cash flow shortages and access to credit Reduction in sales Cash flow shortages Reduction in access to credit 10 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

69% of firms saw 71% 71% a decline in 69% 68% profits compared 67% to last year Service Manufacturing Agriculture Retail and wholesale Total The average 61% 56% 55% 55% 50% decline in profits was 55% Service Agriculture Retail and wholesale Manufacturing Total Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

27% 36% of firms are NOT CONFIDENT they will be in business in 3 months time of firms believe they will go into of firms expect 7% arrears in next 3 to close within months the month 12 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

52% of 52% 39% 36% agricultural 34% 24% firms expect to fall in arrears in next 3 months… Agriculture Service Retail and Manufacturing Total wholesale …with medium 61% 43% 39% and larger firms 36% 34% more likely to go into arrears Medium (20- Large (>99) Small (5-19) Micro (1-4) Total 99) Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

-65% Other Services Firms across -44% Information Technology and… the sectors -33% Accommodation expect sales to -31% Textiles and Garments be 28% lower -31% Other Manufacturing again next -30% Health and Pharmaceutical… quarter, -30% Food and Beverage Services -27% Agriculture and Aquaculture compared to -25% Financial Services same time last -24% Retail and Wholesale year. -24% Food and Beverage Products -9% Construction Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

36% of firms shifted to delivery services and only 6% shifted to remote working arrangements 36% Started or increased delivery or carry-on Changed its production or services offered 26% partically or completely Adopted online/digital platform for major business 19% functions such as sales Started or increased remote work arrangement for 6% its workforce 15 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Only 10% of firms 15% 12% 10% applied for 8% 6% government support Service Manufacturing Retail and Agriculture Total wholesale Agricultural firms 30% 23% along with micro 20% and small firms 10% had the lowest 3% applications Large (>99) Medium (20- Small (5-19) Micro (1-4) Total 99) Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

38% of firms said access to loans/credit guarantees were the most needed government support Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 19 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Next steps Round 2 collected (June) Round 3 start next week 21 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1