Myanmar High- frequency Monitoring of COVID-19 Impacts Results - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Myanmar High- frequency Monitoring of COVID-19 Impacts • Results from Round 1 (May 2020) Round 1

• Background Myanmar’s economy is expected to suffer greatly from COVID-19, with GDP growth rate expected to fall to 0.5 percent in fiscal year 2019/2020. • The pandemic and containment measures are likely to affect households’ livelihoods through losses in employment and income, due to disruption in large employment sectors. • Up-to-date evidence is required to assess the impact of the crisis and thus inform policies to protect poor and vulnerable households. Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring High-frequency phone High-frequency phone Community survey – households survey – firms assessment Monthly survey of 1500 Monthly survey of 500 Key informant interviews to households starting May 2020 to enterprises starting May 2020 to assess changes within monitor welfare changes monitor changes in economic communities, with a focus on activities and adaptation social cohesion Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Highlights (1) Employment § § Household businesses are not making as much Job losses affect 54% of households’ main as they used to. Since March 2020, about 80% workers. Agricultural workers are the least of households in retail trade have lost earnings. resilient with more than 60% of them having lost employment. § Half of farming households cannot perform § their activities as usual. Job losses are felt across the welfare § distribution. In May 2020, about one out of ten rice growing § farmers is concerned they may lack access to Among households’ main workers still finance to be able to plant this season. working about 55% have experienced § reduced income. Agricultural workers were Difficulties in farming are experienced by particularly hit. households across the welfare distribution. § Reductions in income affect more households in the bottom quintiles. Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Highlights (2) Livelihood changes Food security § § Households are not able to diversify as Households are able to access to food, but much as they used to before March 2020. about 10% of households ate less in the last About three quarters of households have seven days than before March 2020. lost an activity or experienced reduced income. Coping mechanisms § About half of households have reduced food § About 12% of households were receiving or non-food consumption to cope with remittances in the last 12 months, but 73% shocks. of them have received less or no § Food security could become a concern. remittances since the beginning of COVID- 19 containment measures. Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Survey 01 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Design q Method: Panel survey conducted monthly through 20-25 minute phone interview on 1,500 households starting May 2020. Central Statistical Organization providing technical support to implementation. q Tracked indicators: Labor market and livelihood strategies, food security and poverty, households’ coping strategies in the first round. Behaviors, access to health and to education, and migration will follow in later rounds. q Respondents were sampled from an existing list created by a private firm. Respondents are adult women and men, irrespectively of whether they are household heads. q Estimates are representative at the Union level. Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Sample distribution of MLCS 2017 and HFPS 2020 is very similar Households by S/R Households by urban/rural 18 16 HFPS (weighted) Proportion of households 14 12 MLCS (weighted) 10 8 6 4 2 HFPS (unweighted) 0 n h n n g i o y y n e n n y w y a i i n a a o o d i g n a h y h r a w y i a a l M i g h a a a h T c a C a h B n S w K g g d k a K i t a a a n a r y MLCS (unweighted) K n a M a Y P S R i y n M y e a y a T A N States/Regions 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Proportion of households MLCS (unweighted) HFPS (unweighted) MLCS (weighted) HFPS (weighted) RURAL URBAN Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

… strengthening confidence in the representativeness of the HFPS Dependency ratio Household size 35 70 30 60 Proportion of households Proportion of households 25 50 20 40 15 30 10 20 5 10 0 0 [0 - 0.1] [0.1 - 0.3] [0.3 - 0.4] [0.4 - 0.5] [0.5 - 1] 4 5 6-20 Categories of dependency ratio Categories of household size MLCS (unweighted) HFPS (unweighted) MLCS (weighted) HFPS (weighted) MLCS (unweighted) HFPS (unweighted) MLCS (weighted) HFPS (weighted) Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Implementation plan Round 3 Round 1 July 2020 18 May – 03 June Modules: Modules: employment, coping, migration, food employment, coping, food security, asset access and security, ownerships poverty Round 2 Round 4 to 8 by end 15 – 30 June of November 2020 Modules: employment, coping, behaviors, migration, food access and security Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Demography 02 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 11 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

HFPS aimed to capture a diversity of respondents Age group and households 15 37 Household composition Gender 3.50 48 3.03 3.00 Number of members 15-34 35-54 55 over 2.50 42 2.00 Main language spoken 58 1.50 2 432 4 1.00 0.63 0.47 Women Men 0.50 0.21 0.20 0.00 86 Children 0-2 Children 3-4 Children 5-14 Members 15- Members 65 64 over Burmese Rakhine Karen Shan Dawei Other Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Income 03 Employment & Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 13 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

One of the • Through changes in employment, in own businesses, or in farm activities channels of • Through reduction of income from these activities the COVID-19 • Through reduction of non-labor income from impacts on remittances • Looking at the situation in May 2020 and welfare can be comparing that to the situation before measured March 2020 Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Work Three out of four households have one main worker engaged in any type of work before the disruption end of March 2020… Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Stop working However by May 54% 2020, 54% of them have Reduced income stopped working Main 55% workers and 55% of the ones still working Continue working are earning less 46% Same/more income 44% Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Stopped working Stopped working, by sector 80% 67% 70% 62% 57% Proportion of households 60% By May 2020, two out three workers 53% 48% 50% engaged in the agriculture sector 45% 44% have lost their job. This is critical 37% 40% given agriculture was one of the 30% main sectors of employment before 20% March 2020. 10% The retail sector, second largest 0% e n y g s t . s n r e r n o r e o i sector of employment, was badly hit: t u m c i i c s p r t t i i u u l c v s v d u t u d r n r a c e c e r n a i a t s e s r i r nearly half of main households’ f s t t g r r l u n a e a e A & o v n n h h i a C o t m r t M O s P O s r workers engaged in retail sector & e i r P u c & o i l T b l i u have lost their job. a P t e R Sector of employment Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Stopped working Stop working, by welfare quintiles (%) 70% 60% 56% 55% 55% 54% 54% The share of households’ Proportion of households’ main worker 50% main workers who stopped working is the same across 40% all quintiles. 30% 20% 10% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Welfare quintiles Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1

Employment and income status as share of all main Main workers’ worker Stop 100% employment and working income 90% Decreased 54% 25% income 80% Reduced 70% income Main 55% 60% worker Stopped working 50% 54% Continue 40% working 46% 30% Same/more income 20% Among main workers who are still 44% Still 21% 10% working working 55% have experienced reduced income. 0% proportion Myanmar Covid–19 Monitorıng Round 1 Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring Round 1